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icon for Flávio Bolsonaro acusado ou preso até 30 de setembro?

Flávio Bolsonaro acusado ou preso até 30 de setembro?

icon for Flávio Bolsonaro acusado ou preso até 30 de setembro?

Flávio Bolsonaro acusado ou preso até 30 de setembro?

Sim

18% chance
Polymarket
NOVO

Sim

18% chance
Polymarket
NOVO
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Flávio Bolsonaro is charged with a crime or arrested by Brazilian authorities, including by authorities of any state or other subdivision of Brazil, by September 30, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government involved in any action against Bolsonaro and information from Bolsonaro and/or his legal representatives, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.**Traders see an 82% probability that Flávio Bolsonaro will not face charges or arrest by September 30, reflecting the slow pace of existing probes amid his active presidential campaign.** Investigations opened earlier in 2026, including a Supreme Court-ordered federal police inquiry into alleged defamation of President Lula and scrutiny over reported financial ties, produced a June police report on slander but have not advanced to formal charges or warrants. A mid-August electoral court order for a federal police probe into fraudulent party registration registration adds scrutiny, yet these matters remain in preliminary stages without imminent resolution. As the Liberal Party nominee facing Lula in the October election, Bolsonaro continues public campaigning and candidate registration, consistent with patterns where Brazilian judicial processes involving political figures often extend beyond short deadlines absent urgent enforcement actions.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Flávio Bolsonaro is charged with a crime or arrested by Brazilian authorities, including by authorities of any state or other subdivision of Brazil, by September 30, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government involved in any action against Bolsonaro and information from Bolsonaro and/or his legal representatives, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$4,905
Data de Término
1 out 2026
Mercado Aberto
Jun 9, 2026, 10:22 PM ET
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Flávio Bolsonaro is charged with a crime or arrested by Brazilian authorities, including by authorities of any state or other subdivision of Brazil, by September 30, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government involved in any action against Bolsonaro and information from Bolsonaro and/or his legal representatives, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Flávio Bolsonaro is charged with a crime or arrested by Brazilian authorities, including by authorities of any state or other subdivision of Brazil, by September 30, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government involved in any action against Bolsonaro and information from Bolsonaro and/or his legal representatives, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.**Traders see an 82% probability that Flávio Bolsonaro will not face charges or arrest by September 30, reflecting the slow pace of existing probes amid his active presidential campaign.** Investigations opened earlier in 2026, including a Supreme Court-ordered federal police inquiry into alleged defamation of President Lula and scrutiny over reported financial ties, produced a June police report on slander but have not advanced to formal charges or warrants. A mid-August electoral court order for a federal police probe into fraudulent party registration registration adds scrutiny, yet these matters remain in preliminary stages without imminent resolution. As the Liberal Party nominee facing Lula in the October election, Bolsonaro continues public campaigning and candidate registration, consistent with patterns where Brazilian judicial processes involving political figures often extend beyond short deadlines absent urgent enforcement actions.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Flávio Bolsonaro is charged with a crime or arrested by Brazilian authorities, including by authorities of any state or other subdivision of Brazil, by September 30, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government involved in any action against Bolsonaro and information from Bolsonaro and/or his legal representatives, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$4,905
Data de Término
1 out 2026
Mercado Aberto
Jun 9, 2026, 10:22 PM ET
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Flávio Bolsonaro is charged with a crime or arrested by Brazilian authorities, including by authorities of any state or other subdivision of Brazil, by September 30, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government involved in any action against Bolsonaro and information from Bolsonaro and/or his legal representatives, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

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Frequently Asked Questions

"Flávio Bolsonaro acusado ou preso até 30 de setembro?" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 2 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "Flávio Bolsonaro será acusado ou preso até 30 de setembro?" at 18%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 18¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 18% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

"Flávio Bolsonaro acusado ou preso até 30 de setembro?" is a newly created market on Polymarket, launched on Jun 9, 2026. As an early market, this is your opportunity to be among the first traders to set the odds and establish the market's initial price signals. You can also bookmark this page to track volume and trading activity as the market gains traction over time.

To trade on "Flávio Bolsonaro acusado ou preso até 30 de setembro?," browse the 2 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "Flávio Bolsonaro acusado ou preso até 30 de setembro?" is "Flávio Bolsonaro será acusado ou preso até 30 de setembro?" at 18%, meaning the market assigns a 18% chance to that outcome. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "Flávio Bolsonaro acusado ou preso até 30 de setembro?" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.