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icon for Flávio Bolsonaro acusado ou preso até 30 de setembro?

Flávio Bolsonaro acusado ou preso até 30 de setembro?

icon for Flávio Bolsonaro acusado ou preso até 30 de setembro?

Flávio Bolsonaro acusado ou preso até 30 de setembro?

Sim

18% chance
Polymarket
NOVO

Sim

18% chance
Polymarket
NOVO
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Flávio Bolsonaro is charged with a crime or arrested by Brazilian authorities, including by authorities of any state or other subdivision of Brazil, by September 30, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government involved in any action against Bolsonaro and information from Bolsonaro and/or his legal representatives, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Flávio Bolsonaro remains under investigation for alleged defamation and ties to a disgraced banker, yet Brazilian authorities have taken no steps toward formal charges or arrest as of mid-August 2026. Probes, including one opened in April into social media statements and scrutiny over funding requests reported in May, have produced public criticism and associate arrests but no indictments against the senator. His active role as the Liberal Party presidential candidate—complete with a running mate selection in early August and campaign rallies—aligns with the slow pace of Supreme Court and federal police proceedings. Brazilian judicial processes emphasize evidence thresholds, Senate privileges for sitting members, and electoral timelines, reducing the likelihood of resolution by September 30. Trader pricing at 82% for “No” reflects this absence of imminent action amid ongoing but non-urgent scrutiny.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Flávio Bolsonaro is charged with a crime or arrested by Brazilian authorities, including by authorities of any state or other subdivision of Brazil, by September 30, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government involved in any action against Bolsonaro and information from Bolsonaro and/or his legal representatives, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$4,905
Data de Término
1 out 2026
Mercado Aberto
Jun 9, 2026, 10:22 PM ET
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Flávio Bolsonaro is charged with a crime or arrested by Brazilian authorities, including by authorities of any state or other subdivision of Brazil, by September 30, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government involved in any action against Bolsonaro and information from Bolsonaro and/or his legal representatives, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Flávio Bolsonaro is charged with a crime or arrested by Brazilian authorities, including by authorities of any state or other subdivision of Brazil, by September 30, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government involved in any action against Bolsonaro and information from Bolsonaro and/or his legal representatives, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Flávio Bolsonaro remains under investigation for alleged defamation and ties to a disgraced banker, yet Brazilian authorities have taken no steps toward formal charges or arrest as of mid-August 2026. Probes, including one opened in April into social media statements and scrutiny over funding requests reported in May, have produced public criticism and associate arrests but no indictments against the senator. His active role as the Liberal Party presidential candidate—complete with a running mate selection in early August and campaign rallies—aligns with the slow pace of Supreme Court and federal police proceedings. Brazilian judicial processes emphasize evidence thresholds, Senate privileges for sitting members, and electoral timelines, reducing the likelihood of resolution by September 30. Trader pricing at 82% for “No” reflects this absence of imminent action amid ongoing but non-urgent scrutiny.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Flávio Bolsonaro is charged with a crime or arrested by Brazilian authorities, including by authorities of any state or other subdivision of Brazil, by September 30, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government involved in any action against Bolsonaro and information from Bolsonaro and/or his legal representatives, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$4,905
Data de Término
1 out 2026
Mercado Aberto
Jun 9, 2026, 10:22 PM ET
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Flávio Bolsonaro is charged with a crime or arrested by Brazilian authorities, including by authorities of any state or other subdivision of Brazil, by September 30, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government involved in any action against Bolsonaro and information from Bolsonaro and/or his legal representatives, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

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Frequently Asked Questions

"Flávio Bolsonaro acusado ou preso até 30 de setembro?" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 2 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "Flávio Bolsonaro será acusado ou preso até 30 de setembro?" at 18%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 18¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 18% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

"Flávio Bolsonaro acusado ou preso até 30 de setembro?" is a newly created market on Polymarket, launched on Jun 9, 2026. As an early market, this is your opportunity to be among the first traders to set the odds and establish the market's initial price signals. You can also bookmark this page to track volume and trading activity as the market gains traction over time.

To trade on "Flávio Bolsonaro acusado ou preso até 30 de setembro?," browse the 2 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "Flávio Bolsonaro acusado ou preso até 30 de setembro?" is "Flávio Bolsonaro será acusado ou preso até 30 de setembro?" at 18%, meaning the market assigns a 18% chance to that outcome. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "Flávio Bolsonaro acusado ou preso até 30 de setembro?" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.