**Persistent above-target inflation and a resilient labor market have anchored trader expectations for consecutive policy holds at the September and October 2026 FOMC meetings.** The federal funds rate remains at 3.50–3.75% following the July 29 decision, where the committee voted 9-3 to pause amid 3.4–3.5% year-over-year CPI readings and an unemployment rate near 4.1–4.2%. Dissenting votes for a 25-basis-point hike reflected concerns over energy price pressures and supply shocks, while forward-looking indicators such as solid job gains and contained wage growth have reduced the urgency for easing. Market-implied odds heavily favor the Pause–Pause–Pause sequence at 55.5%, as participants price in the Fed’s meeting-by-meeting approach and limited scope for cuts before clearer disinflation evidence emerges. The sizable “Other” category at 41.5% captures residual risks of a September hike, consistent with CME FedWatch probabilities showing notable odds of tightening. Upcoming September and October releases on CPI, employment, and any fresh geopolitical developments will serve as the key catalysts that could shift these probabilities.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · AtualizadoPause–Pause–Pause 56%
Other 42%
Pause–Pause–Cut 2.5%
Pause–Cut–Pause 1.1%
$723,801 Vol.
$723,801 Vol.
28 out 2026
Pause–Pause–Pause
56%
Pause–Pause–Cut
3%
Pause–Cut–Pause
1%
Pause–Cut–Cut
<1%
Other
42%
Pause–Pause–Pause 56%
Other 42%
Pause–Pause–Cut 2.5%
Pause–Cut–Pause 1.1%
$723,801 Vol.
$723,801 Vol.
28 out 2026
Pause–Pause–Pause
$239,531 Vol.
56%
Pause–Pause–Cut
$60,116 Vol.
3%
Pause–Cut–Pause
$39,722 Vol.
1%
Pause–Cut–Cut
$27,065 Vol.
<1%
Other
$313,880 Vol.
42%
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: July 28-29; September 15-16; and October 27-28.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm**Persistent above-target inflation and a resilient labor market have anchored trader expectations for consecutive policy holds at the September and October 2026 FOMC meetings.** The federal funds rate remains at 3.50–3.75% following the July 29 decision, where the committee voted 9-3 to pause amid 3.4–3.5% year-over-year CPI readings and an unemployment rate near 4.1–4.2%. Dissenting votes for a 25-basis-point hike reflected concerns over energy price pressures and supply shocks, while forward-looking indicators such as solid job gains and contained wage growth have reduced the urgency for easing.
Market-implied odds heavily favor the Pause–Pause–Pause sequence at 55.5%, as participants price in the Fed’s meeting-by-meeting approach and limited scope for cuts before clearer disinflation evidence emerges. The sizable “Other” category at 41.5% captures residual risks of a September hike, consistent with CME FedWatch probabilities showing notable odds of tightening. Upcoming September and October releases on CPI, employment, and any fresh geopolitical developments will serve as the key catalysts that could shift these probabilities.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: July 28-29; September 15-16; and October 27-28.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: July 28-29; September 15-16; and October 27-28.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
Mercado Aberto: Jun 17, 2026, 7:17 PM ET
Volume
$723,801Data de Término
28 out 2026Mercado Aberto
Jun 17, 2026, 7:17 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: July 28-29; September 15-16; and October 27-28.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm**Persistent above-target inflation and a resilient labor market have anchored trader expectations for consecutive policy holds at the September and October 2026 FOMC meetings.** The federal funds rate remains at 3.50–3.75% following the July 29 decision, where the committee voted 9-3 to pause amid 3.4–3.5% year-over-year CPI readings and an unemployment rate near 4.1–4.2%. Dissenting votes for a 25-basis-point hike reflected concerns over energy price pressures and supply shocks, while forward-looking indicators such as solid job gains and contained wage growth have reduced the urgency for easing.
Market-implied odds heavily favor the Pause–Pause–Pause sequence at 55.5%, as participants price in the Fed’s meeting-by-meeting approach and limited scope for cuts before clearer disinflation evidence emerges. The sizable “Other” category at 41.5% captures residual risks of a September hike, consistent with CME FedWatch probabilities showing notable odds of tightening. Upcoming September and October releases on CPI, employment, and any fresh geopolitical developments will serve as the key catalysts that could shift these probabilities.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: July 28-29; September 15-16; and October 27-28.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: July 28-29; September 15-16; and October 27-28.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
Volume
$723,801Data de Término
28 out 2026Mercado Aberto
Jun 17, 2026, 7:17 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...**Persistent above-target inflation and a resilient labor market have anchored trader expectations for consecutive policy holds at the September and October 2026 FOMC meetings.** The federal funds rate remains at 3.50–3.75% following the July 29 decision, where the committee voted 9-3 to pause amid 3.4–3.5% year-over-year CPI readings and an unemployment rate near 4.1–4.2%. Dissenting votes for a 25-basis-point hike reflected concerns over energy price pressures and supply shocks, while forward-looking indicators such as solid job gains and contained wage growth have reduced the urgency for easing. Market-implied odds heavily favor the Pause–Pause–Pause sequence at 55.5%, as participants price in the Fed’s meeting-by-meeting approach and limited scope for cuts before clearer disinflation evidence emerges. The sizable “Other” category at 41.5% captures residual risks of a September hike, consistent with CME FedWatch probabilities showing notable odds of tightening. Upcoming September and October releases on CPI, employment, and any fresh geopolitical developments will serve as the key catalysts that could shift these probabilities.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · Atualizado
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