**Market-implied odds for the January 2027 FOMC decision show a clear consensus around holding the federal funds rate steady at the current 3.50%-3.75% target range.** The 60.5% probability of no change reflects the Fed’s recent communications and data trajectory, with traders assigning meaningful but lower weight to modest 25-basis-point moves in either direction. Key drivers include July 2026 CPI data showing headline inflation at 3.4% year-over-year and core at 2.5%, with energy prices moderating after earlier Middle East-related spikes while shelter and services components remain contained. The unemployment rate at 4.1% and broadly stable labor market conditions have reduced immediate pressure for easing, while solid GDP growth and productivity trends support a patient stance. Recent FOMC minutes and the July 29 decision (held with three dissents favoring a hike) underscore officials’ focus on delivering price stability amid lingering supply-side pressures. Traders appear to price limited scope for a cut by January absent clearer disinflation, while the smaller probabilities of rate increases capture residual hawkish risks if headline inflation reaccelerates. Upcoming September and December 2026 meetings, along with fresh CPI and employment reports, remain the primary near-term catalysts that could shift these probabilities.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · AtualizadoNo change 61%
Aumento de 25 pontos-base 22%
25 bps decrease 15%
50+ bps decrease 4.6%
$54,346 Vol.
$54,346 Vol.
27 jan 2027
50+ bps decrease
5%
25 bps decrease
15%
No change
61%
Aumento de 25 pontos-base
22%
Aumento de mais de 50 pontos-base
2%
No change 61%
Aumento de 25 pontos-base 22%
25 bps decrease 15%
50+ bps decrease 4.6%
$54,346 Vol.
$54,346 Vol.
27 jan 2027
50+ bps decrease
$12,838 Vol.
5%
25 bps decrease
$10,999 Vol.
15%
No change
$16,164 Vol.
61%
Aumento de 25 pontos-base
$12,056 Vol.
22%
Aumento de mais de 50 pontos-base
$2,289 Vol.
2%
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's January 2027 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for January 26-27, 2027 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their January meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.**Market-implied odds for the January 2027 FOMC decision show a clear consensus around holding the federal funds rate steady at the current 3.50%-3.75% target range.** The 60.5% probability of no change reflects the Fed’s recent communications and data trajectory, with traders assigning meaningful but lower weight to modest 25-basis-point moves in either direction.
Key drivers include July 2026 CPI data showing headline inflation at 3.4% year-over-year and core at 2.5%, with energy prices moderating after earlier Middle East-related spikes while shelter and services components remain contained. The unemployment rate at 4.1% and broadly stable labor market conditions have reduced immediate pressure for easing, while solid GDP growth and productivity trends support a patient stance. Recent FOMC minutes and the July 29 decision (held with three dissents favoring a hike) underscore officials’ focus on delivering price stability amid lingering supply-side pressures.
Traders appear to price limited scope for a cut by January absent clearer disinflation, while the smaller probabilities of rate increases capture residual hawkish risks if headline inflation reaccelerates. Upcoming September and December 2026 meetings, along with fresh CPI and employment reports, remain the primary near-term catalysts that could shift these probabilities.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's January 2027 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for January 26-27, 2027 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their January meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's January 2027 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for January 26-27, 2027 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their January meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
Mercado Aberto: Jul 29, 2026, 8:39 PM ET
Volume
$54,346Data de Término
27 jan 2027Mercado Aberto
Jul 29, 2026, 8:39 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's January 2027 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for January 26-27, 2027 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their January meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.**Market-implied odds for the January 2027 FOMC decision show a clear consensus around holding the federal funds rate steady at the current 3.50%-3.75% target range.** The 60.5% probability of no change reflects the Fed’s recent communications and data trajectory, with traders assigning meaningful but lower weight to modest 25-basis-point moves in either direction.
Key drivers include July 2026 CPI data showing headline inflation at 3.4% year-over-year and core at 2.5%, with energy prices moderating after earlier Middle East-related spikes while shelter and services components remain contained. The unemployment rate at 4.1% and broadly stable labor market conditions have reduced immediate pressure for easing, while solid GDP growth and productivity trends support a patient stance. Recent FOMC minutes and the July 29 decision (held with three dissents favoring a hike) underscore officials’ focus on delivering price stability amid lingering supply-side pressures.
Traders appear to price limited scope for a cut by January absent clearer disinflation, while the smaller probabilities of rate increases capture residual hawkish risks if headline inflation reaccelerates. Upcoming September and December 2026 meetings, along with fresh CPI and employment reports, remain the primary near-term catalysts that could shift these probabilities.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's January 2027 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for January 26-27, 2027 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their January meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's January 2027 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for January 26-27, 2027 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their January meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
Volume
$54,346Data de Término
27 jan 2027Mercado Aberto
Jul 29, 2026, 8:39 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...**Market-implied odds for the January 2027 FOMC decision show a clear consensus around holding the federal funds rate steady at the current 3.50%-3.75% target range.** The 60.5% probability of no change reflects the Fed’s recent communications and data trajectory, with traders assigning meaningful but lower weight to modest 25-basis-point moves in either direction. Key drivers include July 2026 CPI data showing headline inflation at 3.4% year-over-year and core at 2.5%, with energy prices moderating after earlier Middle East-related spikes while shelter and services components remain contained. The unemployment rate at 4.1% and broadly stable labor market conditions have reduced immediate pressure for easing, while solid GDP growth and productivity trends support a patient stance. Recent FOMC minutes and the July 29 decision (held with three dissents favoring a hike) underscore officials’ focus on delivering price stability amid lingering supply-side pressures. Traders appear to price limited scope for a cut by January absent clearer disinflation, while the smaller probabilities of rate increases capture residual hawkish risks if headline inflation reaccelerates. Upcoming September and December 2026 meetings, along with fresh CPI and employment reports, remain the primary near-term catalysts that could shift these probabilities.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · Atualizado
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