Recent low-volume stretches on X have anchored trader consensus around the 40-64 bracket at 51.5% implied probability for the September 14-16 window. Multiple three-day periods in early September settled in the 40-64 or sub-40 ranges, reflecting Musk’s variable cadence of roughly 13-25 posts daily during quieter stretches without major product launches or controversies. The concurrent Grok Bot Galaxy livestream from September 15-17 offers a potential upside catalyst through xAI commentary and platform engagement, yet historical weekend patterns and the absence of immediate Tesla or SpaceX news keep higher brackets like 65-89 (23.0%) as secondary options. Market-implied odds thus price steady but unspectacular activity as the base case ahead of the event-driven period.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · Atualizado40-64 52%
65-89 23%
<40 21%
90-114 5%
NOVO
NOVO
16 set 2026
<40
21%
40-64
52%
65-89
23%
90-114
5%
115-139
1%
140-164
1%
165-189
1%
190-214
1%
215-239
1%
240+
1%
40-64 52%
65-89 23%
<40 21%
90-114 5%
NOVO
NOVO
16 set 2026
<40
$70 Vol.
21%
40-64
$84 Vol.
52%
65-89
$52 Vol.
23%
90-114
$70 Vol.
5%
115-139
$300 Vol.
1%
140-164
$432 Vol.
1%
165-189
$432 Vol.
1%
190-214
$12 Vol.
1%
215-239
$20 Vol.
1%
240+
$120 Vol.
1%
This market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk), posts on X from September 14 12:00 PM ET to September 16, 2026 12:00 PM ET.
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.
The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.poly.havingsomuch.fun. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.Recent low-volume stretches on X have anchored trader consensus around the 40-64 bracket at 51.5% implied probability for the September 14-16 window. Multiple three-day periods in early September settled in the 40-64 or sub-40 ranges, reflecting Musk’s variable cadence of roughly 13-25 posts daily during quieter stretches without major product launches or controversies. The concurrent Grok Bot Galaxy livestream from September 15-17 offers a potential upside catalyst through xAI commentary and platform engagement, yet historical weekend patterns and the absence of immediate Tesla or SpaceX news keep higher brackets like 65-89 (23.0%) as secondary options. Market-implied odds thus price steady but unspectacular activity as the base case ahead of the event-driven period.
This market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk), posts on X from September 14 12:00 PM ET to September 16, 2026 12:00 PM ET.
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.
The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.poly.havingsomuch.fun. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.
The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.poly.havingsomuch.fun. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
Mercado Aberto: Sep 12, 2026, 12:07 PM ET
Volume
$1,590Data de Término
16 set 2026Mercado Aberto
Sep 12, 2026, 12:07 PM ETFonte de resolução
https://x.com/elonmuskResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk), posts on X from September 14 12:00 PM ET to September 16, 2026 12:00 PM ET.
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.
The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.poly.havingsomuch.fun. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.Recent low-volume stretches on X have anchored trader consensus around the 40-64 bracket at 51.5% implied probability for the September 14-16 window. Multiple three-day periods in early September settled in the 40-64 or sub-40 ranges, reflecting Musk’s variable cadence of roughly 13-25 posts daily during quieter stretches without major product launches or controversies. The concurrent Grok Bot Galaxy livestream from September 15-17 offers a potential upside catalyst through xAI commentary and platform engagement, yet historical weekend patterns and the absence of immediate Tesla or SpaceX news keep higher brackets like 65-89 (23.0%) as secondary options. Market-implied odds thus price steady but unspectacular activity as the base case ahead of the event-driven period.
This market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk), posts on X from September 14 12:00 PM ET to September 16, 2026 12:00 PM ET.
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.
The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.poly.havingsomuch.fun. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.
The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.poly.havingsomuch.fun. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
Volume
$1,590Data de Término
16 set 2026Mercado Aberto
Sep 12, 2026, 12:07 PM ETFonte de resolução
https://x.com/elonmuskResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent low-volume stretches on X have anchored trader consensus around the 40-64 bracket at 51.5% implied probability for the September 14-16 window. Multiple three-day periods in early September settled in the 40-64 or sub-40 ranges, reflecting Musk’s variable cadence of roughly 13-25 posts daily during quieter stretches without major product launches or controversies. The concurrent Grok Bot Galaxy livestream from September 15-17 offers a potential upside catalyst through xAI commentary and platform engagement, yet historical weekend patterns and the absence of immediate Tesla or SpaceX news keep higher brackets like 65-89 (23.0%) as secondary options. Market-implied odds thus price steady but unspectacular activity as the base case ahead of the event-driven period.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · Atualizado
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