**José Maria Neves leads the 2026 Cape Verde presidential election market at 67.5% implied probability as the PAICV incumbent seeking re-election on November 15.** His party’s May 2026 parliamentary victory, which ended MpD control and installed a PAICV prime minister, has reinforced his position by signaling strong organizational backing and voter continuity ahead of the first-round vote. Lower-priced contenders such as Janine Lélis (11.5%), Milton Paiva (7%), Péricles Tavares (7%), and others including Casimiro de Pina, Fernando Delgado, and Joana Rosa (all under 7%) reflect limited national name recognition and weaker party structures at this stage. Trader consensus prices the outcome around Neves’ incumbency advantage and the recent legislative shift, with any late consolidation among opposition figures or turnout shifts in the final months the main variables that could alter probabilities before the November ballot.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · AtualizadoVencedor das eleições presidenciais de Cabo Verde
Vencedor das eleições presidenciais de Cabo Verde
José Maria Neves 68%
Janine Lélis 11%
Péricles Tavares 8%
Milton Paiva 7%
NOVO
NOVO
15 nov 2026
José Maria Neves
68%
Janine Lélis
11%
Péricles Tavares
8%
Milton Paiva
7%
Fernando Delgado
6%
Casimiro de Pina
6%
Joana Rosa
5%
José Maria Neves 68%
Janine Lélis 11%
Péricles Tavares 8%
Milton Paiva 7%
NOVO
NOVO
15 nov 2026
José Maria Neves
$1,048 Vol.
68%
Janine Lélis
$198 Vol.
11%
Péricles Tavares
$223 Vol.
8%
Milton Paiva
$235 Vol.
7%
Fernando Delgado
$198 Vol.
6%
Casimiro de Pina
$198 Vol.
6%
Joana Rosa
$223 Vol.
5%
Presidential elections are currently scheduled to be held in Cape Verde on November 15, 2026, with a second round to be held on November 29, 2026 if no candidate receives a majority of valid votes.
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who wins the next Cape Verde presidential elections. Any interim or caretaker President will not qualify.
This market includes any potential second round.
If the results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the results of this election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official results as reported by government sources of the Cape Verde, including the National Commission of Elections (https://cne.cv/).**José Maria Neves leads the 2026 Cape Verde presidential election market at 67.5% implied probability as the PAICV incumbent seeking re-election on November 15.** His party’s May 2026 parliamentary victory, which ended MpD control and installed a PAICV prime minister, has reinforced his position by signaling strong organizational backing and voter continuity ahead of the first-round vote. Lower-priced contenders such as Janine Lélis (11.5%), Milton Paiva (7%), Péricles Tavares (7%), and others including Casimiro de Pina, Fernando Delgado, and Joana Rosa (all under 7%) reflect limited national name recognition and weaker party structures at this stage. Trader consensus prices the outcome around Neves’ incumbency advantage and the recent legislative shift, with any late consolidation among opposition figures or turnout shifts in the final months the main variables that could alter probabilities before the November ballot.
Presidential elections are currently scheduled to be held in Cape Verde on November 15, 2026, with a second round to be held on November 29, 2026 if no candidate receives a majority of valid votes.
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who wins the next Cape Verde presidential elections. Any interim or caretaker President will not qualify.
This market includes any potential second round.
If the results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the results of this election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official results as reported by government sources of the Cape Verde, including the National Commission of Elections (https://cne.cv/).
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who wins the next Cape Verde presidential elections. Any interim or caretaker President will not qualify.
This market includes any potential second round.
If the results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the results of this election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official results as reported by government sources of the Cape Verde, including the National Commission of Elections (https://cne.cv/).
Mercado Aberto: Aug 11, 2026, 8:33 AM ET
Volume
$2,323Data de Término
15 nov 2026Mercado Aberto
Aug 11, 2026, 8:33 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Presidential elections are currently scheduled to be held in Cape Verde on November 15, 2026, with a second round to be held on November 29, 2026 if no candidate receives a majority of valid votes.
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who wins the next Cape Verde presidential elections. Any interim or caretaker President will not qualify.
This market includes any potential second round.
If the results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the results of this election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official results as reported by government sources of the Cape Verde, including the National Commission of Elections (https://cne.cv/).**José Maria Neves leads the 2026 Cape Verde presidential election market at 67.5% implied probability as the PAICV incumbent seeking re-election on November 15.** His party’s May 2026 parliamentary victory, which ended MpD control and installed a PAICV prime minister, has reinforced his position by signaling strong organizational backing and voter continuity ahead of the first-round vote. Lower-priced contenders such as Janine Lélis (11.5%), Milton Paiva (7%), Péricles Tavares (7%), and others including Casimiro de Pina, Fernando Delgado, and Joana Rosa (all under 7%) reflect limited national name recognition and weaker party structures at this stage. Trader consensus prices the outcome around Neves’ incumbency advantage and the recent legislative shift, with any late consolidation among opposition figures or turnout shifts in the final months the main variables that could alter probabilities before the November ballot.
Presidential elections are currently scheduled to be held in Cape Verde on November 15, 2026, with a second round to be held on November 29, 2026 if no candidate receives a majority of valid votes.
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who wins the next Cape Verde presidential elections. Any interim or caretaker President will not qualify.
This market includes any potential second round.
If the results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the results of this election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official results as reported by government sources of the Cape Verde, including the National Commission of Elections (https://cne.cv/).
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who wins the next Cape Verde presidential elections. Any interim or caretaker President will not qualify.
This market includes any potential second round.
If the results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the results of this election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official results as reported by government sources of the Cape Verde, including the National Commission of Elections (https://cne.cv/).
Volume
$2,323Data de Término
15 nov 2026Mercado Aberto
Aug 11, 2026, 8:33 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...**José Maria Neves leads the 2026 Cape Verde presidential election market at 67.5% implied probability as the PAICV incumbent seeking re-election on November 15.** His party’s May 2026 parliamentary victory, which ended MpD control and installed a PAICV prime minister, has reinforced his position by signaling strong organizational backing and voter continuity ahead of the first-round vote. Lower-priced contenders such as Janine Lélis (11.5%), Milton Paiva (7%), Péricles Tavares (7%), and others including Casimiro de Pina, Fernando Delgado, and Joana Rosa (all under 7%) reflect limited national name recognition and weaker party structures at this stage. Trader consensus prices the outcome around Neves’ incumbency advantage and the recent legislative shift, with any late consolidation among opposition figures or turnout shifts in the final months the main variables that could alter probabilities before the November ballot.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · Atualizado
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