Recent escalations in U.S.-Canada trade tensions, including President Trump's 50% tariffs on roughly $20 billion in Canadian goods and Ottawa's planned dollar-for-dollar countermeasures starting in September, have prompted Ontario Premier Doug Ford to threaten electricity export restrictions or surcharges as leverage. These statements reference Ontario's supply to about 1.5 million U.S. homes and businesses in states such as New York, Michigan, and Minnesota. However, federal actions under Prime Minister Mark Carney emphasize targeted tariffs rather than energy measures, while premiers in New Brunswick and elsewhere have ruled out cutoffs for now. Grid operators anticipate primarily price impacts rather than reliability disruptions, consistent with 2025 precedent where similar threats were rescinded within days amid negotiations. With months remaining before the December 31 deadline and active diplomatic channels, trader consensus assigns an 80.5% implied probability to no cutoff or throttling occurring.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · AtualizadoSim
20% chance
NOVO
NOVO
31 dez 2026
Sim
20% chance
NOVO
NOVO
31 dez 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Canada, through an authorized representative of either the federal government or a provincial government, including through a state-owned enterprise, announces that it is using its authority to cut off or throttle the exportation of electricity, in whole or in part, to the United States between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Reductions or curtailments attributable to water or supply conditions, grid reliability, maintenance, commercial or contractual factors, or other ordinary-course operational decisions will not qualify.
An announcement of a qualifying action will suffice for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether electricity exports are actually throttled or cut off, and regardless of whether the action is subsequently suspended or reversed.
A qualifying action must restrict the volume or flow of electricity exports. The imposition of surcharges, taxes, tariffs, or other price-based measures alone will not be sufficient to qualify.
Statements that Canada or a province may take, is considering taking, or will take such action only if a condition is met or unmet will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Canadian federal or provincial governments; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Recent escalations in U.S.-Canada trade tensions, including President Trump's 50% tariffs on roughly $20 billion in Canadian goods and Ottawa's planned dollar-for-dollar countermeasures starting in September, have prompted Ontario Premier Doug Ford to threaten electricity export restrictions or surcharges as leverage. These statements reference Ontario's supply to about 1.5 million U.S. homes and businesses in states such as New York, Michigan, and Minnesota. However, federal actions under Prime Minister Mark Carney emphasize targeted tariffs rather than energy measures, while premiers in New Brunswick and elsewhere have ruled out cutoffs for now. Grid operators anticipate primarily price impacts rather than reliability disruptions, consistent with 2025 precedent where similar threats were rescinded within days amid negotiations. With months remaining before the December 31 deadline and active diplomatic channels, trader consensus assigns an 80.5% implied probability to no cutoff or throttling occurring.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Canada, through an authorized representative of either the federal government or a provincial government, including through a state-owned enterprise, announces that it is using its authority to cut off or throttle the exportation of electricity, in whole or in part, to the United States between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Reductions or curtailments attributable to water or supply conditions, grid reliability, maintenance, commercial or contractual factors, or other ordinary-course operational decisions will not qualify.
An announcement of a qualifying action will suffice for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether electricity exports are actually throttled or cut off, and regardless of whether the action is subsequently suspended or reversed.
A qualifying action must restrict the volume or flow of electricity exports. The imposition of surcharges, taxes, tariffs, or other price-based measures alone will not be sufficient to qualify.
Statements that Canada or a province may take, is considering taking, or will take such action only if a condition is met or unmet will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Canadian federal or provincial governments; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Reductions or curtailments attributable to water or supply conditions, grid reliability, maintenance, commercial or contractual factors, or other ordinary-course operational decisions will not qualify.
An announcement of a qualifying action will suffice for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether electricity exports are actually throttled or cut off, and regardless of whether the action is subsequently suspended or reversed.
A qualifying action must restrict the volume or flow of electricity exports. The imposition of surcharges, taxes, tariffs, or other price-based measures alone will not be sufficient to qualify.
Statements that Canada or a province may take, is considering taking, or will take such action only if a condition is met or unmet will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Canadian federal or provincial governments; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Mercado Aberto: Aug 25, 2026, 6:44 PM ET
Volume
$0Data de Término
31 dez 2026Mercado Aberto
Aug 25, 2026, 6:44 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Canada, through an authorized representative of either the federal government or a provincial government, including through a state-owned enterprise, announces that it is using its authority to cut off or throttle the exportation of electricity, in whole or in part, to the United States between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Reductions or curtailments attributable to water or supply conditions, grid reliability, maintenance, commercial or contractual factors, or other ordinary-course operational decisions will not qualify.
An announcement of a qualifying action will suffice for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether electricity exports are actually throttled or cut off, and regardless of whether the action is subsequently suspended or reversed.
A qualifying action must restrict the volume or flow of electricity exports. The imposition of surcharges, taxes, tariffs, or other price-based measures alone will not be sufficient to qualify.
Statements that Canada or a province may take, is considering taking, or will take such action only if a condition is met or unmet will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Canadian federal or provincial governments; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Recent escalations in U.S.-Canada trade tensions, including President Trump's 50% tariffs on roughly $20 billion in Canadian goods and Ottawa's planned dollar-for-dollar countermeasures starting in September, have prompted Ontario Premier Doug Ford to threaten electricity export restrictions or surcharges as leverage. These statements reference Ontario's supply to about 1.5 million U.S. homes and businesses in states such as New York, Michigan, and Minnesota. However, federal actions under Prime Minister Mark Carney emphasize targeted tariffs rather than energy measures, while premiers in New Brunswick and elsewhere have ruled out cutoffs for now. Grid operators anticipate primarily price impacts rather than reliability disruptions, consistent with 2025 precedent where similar threats were rescinded within days amid negotiations. With months remaining before the December 31 deadline and active diplomatic channels, trader consensus assigns an 80.5% implied probability to no cutoff or throttling occurring.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Canada, through an authorized representative of either the federal government or a provincial government, including through a state-owned enterprise, announces that it is using its authority to cut off or throttle the exportation of electricity, in whole or in part, to the United States between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Reductions or curtailments attributable to water or supply conditions, grid reliability, maintenance, commercial or contractual factors, or other ordinary-course operational decisions will not qualify.
An announcement of a qualifying action will suffice for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether electricity exports are actually throttled or cut off, and regardless of whether the action is subsequently suspended or reversed.
A qualifying action must restrict the volume or flow of electricity exports. The imposition of surcharges, taxes, tariffs, or other price-based measures alone will not be sufficient to qualify.
Statements that Canada or a province may take, is considering taking, or will take such action only if a condition is met or unmet will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Canadian federal or provincial governments; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Reductions or curtailments attributable to water or supply conditions, grid reliability, maintenance, commercial or contractual factors, or other ordinary-course operational decisions will not qualify.
An announcement of a qualifying action will suffice for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether electricity exports are actually throttled or cut off, and regardless of whether the action is subsequently suspended or reversed.
A qualifying action must restrict the volume or flow of electricity exports. The imposition of surcharges, taxes, tariffs, or other price-based measures alone will not be sufficient to qualify.
Statements that Canada or a province may take, is considering taking, or will take such action only if a condition is met or unmet will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Canadian federal or provincial governments; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$0Data de Término
31 dez 2026Mercado Aberto
Aug 25, 2026, 6:44 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Recent escalations in U.S.-Canada trade tensions, including President Trump's 50% tariffs on roughly $20 billion in Canadian goods and Ottawa's planned dollar-for-dollar countermeasures starting in September, have prompted Ontario Premier Doug Ford to threaten electricity export restrictions or surcharges as leverage. These statements reference Ontario's supply to about 1.5 million U.S. homes and businesses in states such as New York, Michigan, and Minnesota. However, federal actions under Prime Minister Mark Carney emphasize targeted tariffs rather than energy measures, while premiers in New Brunswick and elsewhere have ruled out cutoffs for now. Grid operators anticipate primarily price impacts rather than reliability disruptions, consistent with 2025 precedent where similar threats were rescinded within days amid negotiations. With months remaining before the December 31 deadline and active diplomatic channels, trader consensus assigns an 80.5% implied probability to no cutoff or throttling occurring.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · Atualizado
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