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icon for Eleição primária do Senado do Alasca: margem de vitória?
Política·Margem

Eleição primária do Senado do Alasca: margem de vitória?

icon for Eleição primária do Senado do Alasca: margem de vitória?
Política·Margem

Eleição primária do Senado do Alasca: margem de vitória?

Peltola 3–6% 31%

Peltola 6–9% 16%

Sullivan <3% 13%

Peltola <3% 13%

Polymarket
NOVO

Peltola 3–6% 31%

Peltola 6–9% 16%

Sullivan <3% 13%

Peltola <3% 13%

Polymarket
NOVO
icon for Peltola 15%+

Peltola 15%+

$195 Vol.

8%

icon for Peltola 12–15%

Peltola 12–15%

$159 Vol.

10%

icon for Peltola 9–12%

Peltola 9–12%

$159 Vol.

10%

icon for Peltola 6–9%

Peltola 6–9%

$385 Vol.

16%

icon for Peltola 3–6%

Peltola 3–6%

$951 Vol.

31%

icon for Peltola <3%

Peltola <3%

$199 Vol.

13%

icon for Sullivan <3%

Sullivan <3%

$159 Vol.

13%

icon for Sullivan 3–6%

Sullivan 3–6%

$343 Vol.

4%

icon for Sullivan 6–9%

Sullivan 6–9%

$299 Vol.

7%

icon for Sullivan 9–12%

Sullivan 9–12%

$327 Vol.

7%

icon for Sullivan 12%+

Sullivan 12%+

$332 Vol.

6%

The non-partisan primary election for US Senator from Alaska is scheduled to take place on August 18, 2026. The top four candidates in this election by number of votes won will advance to the general election for Senator from Alaska. This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in this primary election. The “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. If two candidates receive the exact same highest number of valid votes and both are listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for the tied candidate whose last name comes first alphabetically. If only one of the tied candidates is listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for that listed candidate. If neither tied candidate is listed, this market will resolve to “Other.” This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official. If the results of the specified election are not known definitively by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”. The primary resolution source for this market will be official election results published by the Alaska Division of Elections (https://www.elections.alaska.gov/); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice. If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.The closely contested August 18 top-four primary between incumbent Republican Sen. Dan Sullivan seeking a third term and Democratic challenger former Rep. Mary Peltola drives the current market positioning. Peltola’s substantial fundraising edge, reported at roughly $6.9 million since April compared with Sullivan’s $2 million, along with her grassroots and labor support, has kept the race tight according to recent surveys. A same-name Republican primary opponent cleared by the Alaska Supreme Court adds ballot confusion that could fragment Republican votes and compress victory margins. Alaska’s open primary system and upcoming ranked-choice general election further heighten uncertainty over exact spreads, with trader consensus reflecting these dynamics in the leading outcomes for modest Peltola advantages or other results.

The non-partisan primary election for US Senator from Alaska is scheduled to take place on August 18, 2026. The top four candidates in this election by number of votes won will advance to the general election for Senator from Alaska.

This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in this primary election.

The “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.

If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.

If two candidates receive the exact same highest number of valid votes and both are listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for the tied candidate whose last name comes first alphabetically. If only one of the tied candidates is listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for that listed candidate. If neither tied candidate is listed, this market will resolve to “Other.”

This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.

If the results of the specified election are not known definitively by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official election results published by the Alaska Division of Elections (https://www.elections.alaska.gov/); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.

If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
Volume
$3,505
Data de Término
18 ago 2026
Mercado Aberto
Aug 13, 2026, 2:24 PM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
The non-partisan primary election for US Senator from Alaska is scheduled to take place on August 18, 2026. The top four candidates in this election by number of votes won will advance to the general election for Senator from Alaska. This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in this primary election. The “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. If two candidates receive the exact same highest number of valid votes and both are listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for the tied candidate whose last name comes first alphabetically. If only one of the tied candidates is listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for that listed candidate. If neither tied candidate is listed, this market will resolve to “Other.” This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official. If the results of the specified election are not known definitively by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”. The primary resolution source for this market will be official election results published by the Alaska Division of Elections (https://www.elections.alaska.gov/); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice. If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
The non-partisan primary election for US Senator from Alaska is scheduled to take place on August 18, 2026. The top four candidates in this election by number of votes won will advance to the general election for Senator from Alaska. This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in this primary election. The “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. If two candidates receive the exact same highest number of valid votes and both are listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for the tied candidate whose last name comes first alphabetically. If only one of the tied candidates is listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for that listed candidate. If neither tied candidate is listed, this market will resolve to “Other.” This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official. If the results of the specified election are not known definitively by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”. The primary resolution source for this market will be official election results published by the Alaska Division of Elections (https://www.elections.alaska.gov/); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice. If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.The closely contested August 18 top-four primary between incumbent Republican Sen. Dan Sullivan seeking a third term and Democratic challenger former Rep. Mary Peltola drives the current market positioning. Peltola’s substantial fundraising edge, reported at roughly $6.9 million since April compared with Sullivan’s $2 million, along with her grassroots and labor support, has kept the race tight according to recent surveys. A same-name Republican primary opponent cleared by the Alaska Supreme Court adds ballot confusion that could fragment Republican votes and compress victory margins. Alaska’s open primary system and upcoming ranked-choice general election further heighten uncertainty over exact spreads, with trader consensus reflecting these dynamics in the leading outcomes for modest Peltola advantages or other results.

The non-partisan primary election for US Senator from Alaska is scheduled to take place on August 18, 2026. The top four candidates in this election by number of votes won will advance to the general election for Senator from Alaska.

This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in this primary election.

The “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.

If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.

If two candidates receive the exact same highest number of valid votes and both are listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for the tied candidate whose last name comes first alphabetically. If only one of the tied candidates is listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for that listed candidate. If neither tied candidate is listed, this market will resolve to “Other.”

This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.

If the results of the specified election are not known definitively by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official election results published by the Alaska Division of Elections (https://www.elections.alaska.gov/); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.

If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
Volume
$3,505
Data de Término
18 ago 2026
Mercado Aberto
Aug 13, 2026, 2:24 PM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
The non-partisan primary election for US Senator from Alaska is scheduled to take place on August 18, 2026. The top four candidates in this election by number of votes won will advance to the general election for Senator from Alaska. This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in this primary election. The “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. If two candidates receive the exact same highest number of valid votes and both are listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for the tied candidate whose last name comes first alphabetically. If only one of the tied candidates is listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for that listed candidate. If neither tied candidate is listed, this market will resolve to “Other.” This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official. If the results of the specified election are not known definitively by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”. The primary resolution source for this market will be official election results published by the Alaska Division of Elections (https://www.elections.alaska.gov/); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice. If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.

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Frequently Asked Questions

"Eleição primária do Senado do Alasca: margem de vitória?" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 11 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "Peltola 3–6%" at 31%, followed by "Peltola 6–9%" at 16%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 31¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 31% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

"Eleição primária do Senado do Alasca: margem de vitória?" is a newly created market on Polymarket, launched on Aug 13, 2026. As an early market, this is your opportunity to be among the first traders to set the odds and establish the market's initial price signals. You can also bookmark this page to track volume and trading activity as the market gains traction over time.

To trade on "Eleição primária do Senado do Alasca: margem de vitória?," browse the 11 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "Eleição primária do Senado do Alasca: margem de vitória?" is "Peltola 3–6%" at 31%, meaning the market assigns a 31% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "Peltola 6–9%" at 16%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "Eleição primária do Senado do Alasca: margem de vitória?" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.