**Iranian officials and hardline parliamentarians have repeatedly floated withdrawal from the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT) in 2026 as leverage following U.S. and Israeli strikes on nuclear facilities, but these statements have not translated into enacted policy.** Proposals for exit legislation surfaced in parliament as early as March 2026 and resurfaced in August amid ongoing tensions, with figures citing the lack of benefits from membership and calling for reciprocal moves against external pressure. However, senior voices, including Deputy Foreign Minister Kazem Gharibabadi, have framed Iran’s reduced IAEA access and suspended safeguards cooperation as allowing it to operate effectively outside full NPT constraints without formal withdrawal, which would require parliamentary passage, Guardian Council approval, and government implementation. Analysts view the rhetoric primarily as a negotiating tool to extract concessions rather than a committed path, consistent with prior cycles where threats did not result in exit despite attacks and sanctions debates. Iran maintains its NPT party status while pursuing bilateral understandings, such as the June 2026 U.S.-Iran memorandum addressing its nuclear program and enriched uranium stockpiles. With roughly four months remaining until 2027 and no confirmed legislative momentum or supreme leadership directive for immediate action, trader consensus assigns an 88.7% probability to “No,” reflecting the structural and diplomatic barriers to a completed withdrawal.