Recent cabinet turnover in the second Trump administration, including the spring 2026 exits of Kristi Noem, Pam Bondi, and Lori Chavez-DeRemer amid reported frustrations over priorities and performance, has shaped trader views on further departures. With Karoline Leavitt's announced exit at the end of August 2026 as the latest signal, markets price "None before 2027" highest because Senate-confirmed roles have stabilized after early adjustments and loyalty-focused selections. RFK Jr. leads named contenders due to sustained policy scrutiny at HHS, while Chris Wright, Lee Zeldin, and Susie Wiles reflect perceptions of exposure in energy, environmental, and chief-of-staff roles amid ongoing agency realignments. Historical patterns of presidential shakeups after the first year inform the probabilities, though confirmation processes and White House statements continue to influence timing.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · ZaktualizowanoNone before 2027 47.9%
Robert F. Kennedy Jr. 17.9%
Susie Wiles 6.2%
Doug Burgum 5.9%
$42,090 Wol.
$42,090 Wol.
Dec 30, 2026
None before 2027
48%
Robert F. Kennedy Jr.
18%
Susie Wiles
6%
Doug Burgum
6%
Lee Zeldin
6%
Chris Wright
10%
Russell T. Vought
5%
Pete Hegseth
4%
Scott Bessent
3%
J.D. Vance
2%
Howard Lutnick
2%
Brooke Rollins
2%
Sean Duffy
2%
Jamieson Greer
2%
Scott Turner
2%
Marco Rubio
1%
John Ratcliffe
1%
Mike Waltz
1%
Linda McMahon
1%
Kelly Loeffler
1%
Doug Collins
1%
None before 2027 47.9%
Robert F. Kennedy Jr. 17.9%
Susie Wiles 6.2%
Doug Burgum 5.9%
$42,090 Wol.
$42,090 Wol.
Dec 30, 2026
None before 2027
$8,024 Wol.
48%
Robert F. Kennedy Jr.
$18,346 Wol.
18%
Susie Wiles
$3,362 Wol.
6%
Doug Burgum
$779 Wol.
6%
Lee Zeldin
$636 Wol.
6%
Chris Wright
$730 Wol.
10%
Russell T. Vought
$473 Wol.
5%
Pete Hegseth
$939 Wol.
4%
Scott Bessent
$1,473 Wol.
3%
J.D. Vance
$581 Wol.
2%
Howard Lutnick
$826 Wol.
2%
Brooke Rollins
$670 Wol.
2%
Sean Duffy
$632 Wol.
2%
Jamieson Greer
$478 Wol.
2%
Scott Turner
$351 Wol.
2%
Marco Rubio
$498 Wol.
1%
John Ratcliffe
$517 Wol.
1%
Mike Waltz
$646 Wol.
1%
Linda McMahon
$847 Wol.
1%
Kelly Loeffler
$776 Wol.
1%
Doug Collins
$506 Wol.
1%
This market will resolve based on the next individual announced to leave the Trump Cabinet, or who otherwise ceases to be a member of the administration. If no one leaves by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “None before 2027”.
An announcement of an individual's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the resignation/removal takes effect.
If multiple individuals announce departures or are removed at the same time, the market will resolve to the individual who actually leaves office first. If they leave simultaneously, the market will resolve to the individual whose last name comes first alphabetically.
For the purposes of this market, the Cabinet includes Vice President, the heads of the 15 executive departments, as well as the Administrator of the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), the President’s Chief of Staff, the Director of National Intelligence (DNI), the Director of the Office of Management and Budget (OMB), the Director of the Central Intelligence Agency (CIA), the United States Trade Representative (USTR), the Ambassador to the United Nations, the Chair of the Council of Economic Advisers (CEA), and the Administrator of the Small Business Administration (SBA). Acting officials serving in these roles are not included. The Director of the Office of Science and Technology Policy (OSTP) is not considered Cabinet-level under the current Trump administration and is excluded from this market.
An individual will be considered to have left the Cabinet if they resign from or are removed from any Cabinet-level position, even if they are subsequently appointed to a different Cabinet-level role.
If a candidate who is not already listed, assumes a listed cabinet position they will be added to the market. However, candidates who have merely been nominated for a cabinet position will not be considered to have left, even if their nomination is rejected or withdrawn.
The primary resolution source will be official information from the Trump administration, however a consensus of credible reopening may also be used.Recent cabinet turnover in the second Trump administration, including the spring 2026 exits of Kristi Noem, Pam Bondi, and Lori Chavez-DeRemer amid reported frustrations over priorities and performance, has shaped trader views on further departures. With Karoline Leavitt's announced exit at the end of August 2026 as the latest signal, markets price "None before 2027" highest because Senate-confirmed roles have stabilized after early adjustments and loyalty-focused selections. RFK Jr. leads named contenders due to sustained policy scrutiny at HHS, while Chris Wright, Lee Zeldin, and Susie Wiles reflect perceptions of exposure in energy, environmental, and chief-of-staff roles amid ongoing agency realignments. Historical patterns of presidential shakeups after the first year inform the probabilities, though confirmation processes and White House statements continue to influence timing.
This market will resolve based on the next individual announced to leave the Trump Cabinet, or who otherwise ceases to be a member of the administration. If no one leaves by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “None before 2027”.
An announcement of an individual's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the resignation/removal takes effect.
If multiple individuals announce departures or are removed at the same time, the market will resolve to the individual who actually leaves office first. If they leave simultaneously, the market will resolve to the individual whose last name comes first alphabetically.
For the purposes of this market, the Cabinet includes Vice President, the heads of the 15 executive departments, as well as the Administrator of the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), the President’s Chief of Staff, the Director of National Intelligence (DNI), the Director of the Office of Management and Budget (OMB), the Director of the Central Intelligence Agency (CIA), the United States Trade Representative (USTR), the Ambassador to the United Nations, the Chair of the Council of Economic Advisers (CEA), and the Administrator of the Small Business Administration (SBA). Acting officials serving in these roles are not included. The Director of the Office of Science and Technology Policy (OSTP) is not considered Cabinet-level under the current Trump administration and is excluded from this market.
An individual will be considered to have left the Cabinet if they resign from or are removed from any Cabinet-level position, even if they are subsequently appointed to a different Cabinet-level role.
If a candidate who is not already listed, assumes a listed cabinet position they will be added to the market. However, candidates who have merely been nominated for a cabinet position will not be considered to have left, even if their nomination is rejected or withdrawn.
The primary resolution source will be official information from the Trump administration, however a consensus of credible reopening may also be used.
An announcement of an individual's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the resignation/removal takes effect.
If multiple individuals announce departures or are removed at the same time, the market will resolve to the individual who actually leaves office first. If they leave simultaneously, the market will resolve to the individual whose last name comes first alphabetically.
For the purposes of this market, the Cabinet includes Vice President, the heads of the 15 executive departments, as well as the Administrator of the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), the President’s Chief of Staff, the Director of National Intelligence (DNI), the Director of the Office of Management and Budget (OMB), the Director of the Central Intelligence Agency (CIA), the United States Trade Representative (USTR), the Ambassador to the United Nations, the Chair of the Council of Economic Advisers (CEA), and the Administrator of the Small Business Administration (SBA). Acting officials serving in these roles are not included. The Director of the Office of Science and Technology Policy (OSTP) is not considered Cabinet-level under the current Trump administration and is excluded from this market.
An individual will be considered to have left the Cabinet if they resign from or are removed from any Cabinet-level position, even if they are subsequently appointed to a different Cabinet-level role.
If a candidate who is not already listed, assumes a listed cabinet position they will be added to the market. However, candidates who have merely been nominated for a cabinet position will not be considered to have left, even if their nomination is rejected or withdrawn.
The primary resolution source will be official information from the Trump administration, however a consensus of credible reopening may also be used.
Rynek otwarty: May 22, 2026, 2:38 PM ET
Wolumen
$42,090Data zakończenia
Dec 31, 2026Rynek otwarty
May 22, 2026, 2:38 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve based on the next individual announced to leave the Trump Cabinet, or who otherwise ceases to be a member of the administration. If no one leaves by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “None before 2027”.
An announcement of an individual's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the resignation/removal takes effect.
If multiple individuals announce departures or are removed at the same time, the market will resolve to the individual who actually leaves office first. If they leave simultaneously, the market will resolve to the individual whose last name comes first alphabetically.
For the purposes of this market, the Cabinet includes Vice President, the heads of the 15 executive departments, as well as the Administrator of the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), the President’s Chief of Staff, the Director of National Intelligence (DNI), the Director of the Office of Management and Budget (OMB), the Director of the Central Intelligence Agency (CIA), the United States Trade Representative (USTR), the Ambassador to the United Nations, the Chair of the Council of Economic Advisers (CEA), and the Administrator of the Small Business Administration (SBA). Acting officials serving in these roles are not included. The Director of the Office of Science and Technology Policy (OSTP) is not considered Cabinet-level under the current Trump administration and is excluded from this market.
An individual will be considered to have left the Cabinet if they resign from or are removed from any Cabinet-level position, even if they are subsequently appointed to a different Cabinet-level role.
If a candidate who is not already listed, assumes a listed cabinet position they will be added to the market. However, candidates who have merely been nominated for a cabinet position will not be considered to have left, even if their nomination is rejected or withdrawn.
The primary resolution source will be official information from the Trump administration, however a consensus of credible reopening may also be used.Recent cabinet turnover in the second Trump administration, including the spring 2026 exits of Kristi Noem, Pam Bondi, and Lori Chavez-DeRemer amid reported frustrations over priorities and performance, has shaped trader views on further departures. With Karoline Leavitt's announced exit at the end of August 2026 as the latest signal, markets price "None before 2027" highest because Senate-confirmed roles have stabilized after early adjustments and loyalty-focused selections. RFK Jr. leads named contenders due to sustained policy scrutiny at HHS, while Chris Wright, Lee Zeldin, and Susie Wiles reflect perceptions of exposure in energy, environmental, and chief-of-staff roles amid ongoing agency realignments. Historical patterns of presidential shakeups after the first year inform the probabilities, though confirmation processes and White House statements continue to influence timing.
This market will resolve based on the next individual announced to leave the Trump Cabinet, or who otherwise ceases to be a member of the administration. If no one leaves by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “None before 2027”.
An announcement of an individual's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the resignation/removal takes effect.
If multiple individuals announce departures or are removed at the same time, the market will resolve to the individual who actually leaves office first. If they leave simultaneously, the market will resolve to the individual whose last name comes first alphabetically.
For the purposes of this market, the Cabinet includes Vice President, the heads of the 15 executive departments, as well as the Administrator of the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), the President’s Chief of Staff, the Director of National Intelligence (DNI), the Director of the Office of Management and Budget (OMB), the Director of the Central Intelligence Agency (CIA), the United States Trade Representative (USTR), the Ambassador to the United Nations, the Chair of the Council of Economic Advisers (CEA), and the Administrator of the Small Business Administration (SBA). Acting officials serving in these roles are not included. The Director of the Office of Science and Technology Policy (OSTP) is not considered Cabinet-level under the current Trump administration and is excluded from this market.
An individual will be considered to have left the Cabinet if they resign from or are removed from any Cabinet-level position, even if they are subsequently appointed to a different Cabinet-level role.
If a candidate who is not already listed, assumes a listed cabinet position they will be added to the market. However, candidates who have merely been nominated for a cabinet position will not be considered to have left, even if their nomination is rejected or withdrawn.
The primary resolution source will be official information from the Trump administration, however a consensus of credible reopening may also be used.
An announcement of an individual's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the resignation/removal takes effect.
If multiple individuals announce departures or are removed at the same time, the market will resolve to the individual who actually leaves office first. If they leave simultaneously, the market will resolve to the individual whose last name comes first alphabetically.
For the purposes of this market, the Cabinet includes Vice President, the heads of the 15 executive departments, as well as the Administrator of the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), the President’s Chief of Staff, the Director of National Intelligence (DNI), the Director of the Office of Management and Budget (OMB), the Director of the Central Intelligence Agency (CIA), the United States Trade Representative (USTR), the Ambassador to the United Nations, the Chair of the Council of Economic Advisers (CEA), and the Administrator of the Small Business Administration (SBA). Acting officials serving in these roles are not included. The Director of the Office of Science and Technology Policy (OSTP) is not considered Cabinet-level under the current Trump administration and is excluded from this market.
An individual will be considered to have left the Cabinet if they resign from or are removed from any Cabinet-level position, even if they are subsequently appointed to a different Cabinet-level role.
If a candidate who is not already listed, assumes a listed cabinet position they will be added to the market. However, candidates who have merely been nominated for a cabinet position will not be considered to have left, even if their nomination is rejected or withdrawn.
The primary resolution source will be official information from the Trump administration, however a consensus of credible reopening may also be used.
Wolumen
$42,090Data zakończenia
Dec 31, 2026Rynek otwarty
May 22, 2026, 2:38 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent cabinet turnover in the second Trump administration, including the spring 2026 exits of Kristi Noem, Pam Bondi, and Lori Chavez-DeRemer amid reported frustrations over priorities and performance, has shaped trader views on further departures. With Karoline Leavitt's announced exit at the end of August 2026 as the latest signal, markets price "None before 2027" highest because Senate-confirmed roles have stabilized after early adjustments and loyalty-focused selections. RFK Jr. leads named contenders due to sustained policy scrutiny at HHS, while Chris Wright, Lee Zeldin, and Susie Wiles reflect perceptions of exposure in energy, environmental, and chief-of-staff roles amid ongoing agency realignments. Historical patterns of presidential shakeups after the first year inform the probabilities, though confirmation processes and White House statements continue to influence timing.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · Zaktualizowano
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