**Trader sentiment heavily favors "None in 2026" at 83.5% implied probability because current Chatbot Arena leaders sit well below the 1550 Elo threshold.** As of early September 2026, top models from Anthropic—including Claude Opus 5 Max and Claude Fable 5 variants—lead the leaderboard at roughly 1505–1531 Elo, with OpenAI’s GPT-5.5/5.6 series, Google’s Gemini 3.x models, and Meta’s offerings clustered 20–50 points behind. Incremental gains from recent releases and fine-tunes have narrowed gaps modestly but not produced the rapid jumps needed to clear 1550 before year-end. Anthropic’s edge (9.5%) stems from its sustained dominance across multiple high-vote entries, while lower odds for OpenAI (6.0%), Google (1.5%), xAI, DeepSeek, and others reflect both current positioning and the limited remaining runway for frontier-scale capability jumps. Market-implied odds treat further 2026 releases as unlikely to deliver the required ~20–50 point leap in the final months.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · ZaktualizowanoWhich company's AI will first hit 1550 on Chatbot Arena in 2026?
Which company's AI will first hit 1550 on Chatbot Arena in 2026?
None in 2026 84%
Anthropic 10%
OpenAI 6.0%
Google 1.5%
$122,904 Wol.
$122,904 Wol.
Dec 31, 2026
None in 2026
84%
Anthropic
10%
OpenAI
6%
1%
xAI
1%
DeepSeek
<1%
Alibaba
<1%
Mistral
<1%
Z.ai
<1%
None in 2026 84%
Anthropic 10%
OpenAI 6.0%
Google 1.5%
$122,904 Wol.
$122,904 Wol.
Dec 31, 2026
None in 2026
$26,000 Wol.
84%
Anthropic
$17,412 Wol.
10%
OpenAI
$14,673 Wol.
6%
$11,499 Wol.
1%
xAI
$9,350 Wol.
1%
DeepSeek
$13,416 Wol.
<1%
Alibaba
$11,378 Wol.
<1%
Mistral
$9,474 Wol.
<1%
Z.ai
$9,703 Wol.
<1%
This market will resolve according to the listed entity, which is the first to reach an Arena Score of 1550+ on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
Results from the "Text Arena" section on the leaderboard/text tab of https://lmarena.ai/ with the style control unchecked (https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control) will be used to resolve this market.
If no company's model reaches 1550+ Arena Score by the specified time, this market will resolve to "None in 2026".
If the first model to reach a 1550+ Arena Score belongs to any company other than the listed ones, this market will be resolved to "Other".
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source becomes unavailable, the market will remain open until it is accessible again. If it becomes permanently unavailable, resolution will be based on another credible source.**Trader sentiment heavily favors "None in 2026" at 83.5% implied probability because current Chatbot Arena leaders sit well below the 1550 Elo threshold.** As of early September 2026, top models from Anthropic—including Claude Opus 5 Max and Claude Fable 5 variants—lead the leaderboard at roughly 1505–1531 Elo, with OpenAI’s GPT-5.5/5.6 series, Google’s Gemini 3.x models, and Meta’s offerings clustered 20–50 points behind. Incremental gains from recent releases and fine-tunes have narrowed gaps modestly but not produced the rapid jumps needed to clear 1550 before year-end. Anthropic’s edge (9.5%) stems from its sustained dominance across multiple high-vote entries, while lower odds for OpenAI (6.0%), Google (1.5%), xAI, DeepSeek, and others reflect both current positioning and the limited remaining runway for frontier-scale capability jumps. Market-implied odds treat further 2026 releases as unlikely to deliver the required ~20–50 point leap in the final months.
This market will resolve according to the listed entity, which is the first to reach an Arena Score of 1550+ on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
Results from the "Text Arena" section on the leaderboard/text tab of https://lmarena.ai/ with the style control unchecked (https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control) will be used to resolve this market.
If no company's model reaches 1550+ Arena Score by the specified time, this market will resolve to "None in 2026".
If the first model to reach a 1550+ Arena Score belongs to any company other than the listed ones, this market will be resolved to "Other".
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source becomes unavailable, the market will remain open until it is accessible again. If it becomes permanently unavailable, resolution will be based on another credible source.
Results from the "Text Arena" section on the leaderboard/text tab of https://lmarena.ai/ with the style control unchecked (https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control) will be used to resolve this market.
If no company's model reaches 1550+ Arena Score by the specified time, this market will resolve to "None in 2026".
If the first model to reach a 1550+ Arena Score belongs to any company other than the listed ones, this market will be resolved to "Other".
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source becomes unavailable, the market will remain open until it is accessible again. If it becomes permanently unavailable, resolution will be based on another credible source.
Rynek otwarty: Feb 13, 2026, 4:42 PM ET
Wolumen
$122,904Data zakończenia
Jan 1, 2027Rynek otwarty
Feb 13, 2026, 4:42 PM ETRozstrzygający
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the listed entity, which is the first to reach an Arena Score of 1550+ on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
Results from the "Text Arena" section on the leaderboard/text tab of https://lmarena.ai/ with the style control unchecked (https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control) will be used to resolve this market.
If no company's model reaches 1550+ Arena Score by the specified time, this market will resolve to "None in 2026".
If the first model to reach a 1550+ Arena Score belongs to any company other than the listed ones, this market will be resolved to "Other".
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source becomes unavailable, the market will remain open until it is accessible again. If it becomes permanently unavailable, resolution will be based on another credible source.**Trader sentiment heavily favors "None in 2026" at 83.5% implied probability because current Chatbot Arena leaders sit well below the 1550 Elo threshold.** As of early September 2026, top models from Anthropic—including Claude Opus 5 Max and Claude Fable 5 variants—lead the leaderboard at roughly 1505–1531 Elo, with OpenAI’s GPT-5.5/5.6 series, Google’s Gemini 3.x models, and Meta’s offerings clustered 20–50 points behind. Incremental gains from recent releases and fine-tunes have narrowed gaps modestly but not produced the rapid jumps needed to clear 1550 before year-end. Anthropic’s edge (9.5%) stems from its sustained dominance across multiple high-vote entries, while lower odds for OpenAI (6.0%), Google (1.5%), xAI, DeepSeek, and others reflect both current positioning and the limited remaining runway for frontier-scale capability jumps. Market-implied odds treat further 2026 releases as unlikely to deliver the required ~20–50 point leap in the final months.
This market will resolve according to the listed entity, which is the first to reach an Arena Score of 1550+ on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
Results from the "Text Arena" section on the leaderboard/text tab of https://lmarena.ai/ with the style control unchecked (https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control) will be used to resolve this market.
If no company's model reaches 1550+ Arena Score by the specified time, this market will resolve to "None in 2026".
If the first model to reach a 1550+ Arena Score belongs to any company other than the listed ones, this market will be resolved to "Other".
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source becomes unavailable, the market will remain open until it is accessible again. If it becomes permanently unavailable, resolution will be based on another credible source.
Results from the "Text Arena" section on the leaderboard/text tab of https://lmarena.ai/ with the style control unchecked (https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control) will be used to resolve this market.
If no company's model reaches 1550+ Arena Score by the specified time, this market will resolve to "None in 2026".
If the first model to reach a 1550+ Arena Score belongs to any company other than the listed ones, this market will be resolved to "Other".
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source becomes unavailable, the market will remain open until it is accessible again. If it becomes permanently unavailable, resolution will be based on another credible source.
Wolumen
$122,904Data zakończenia
Jan 1, 2027Rynek otwarty
Feb 13, 2026, 4:42 PM ETRozstrzygający
0x2F5e3684c...**Trader sentiment heavily favors "None in 2026" at 83.5% implied probability because current Chatbot Arena leaders sit well below the 1550 Elo threshold.** As of early September 2026, top models from Anthropic—including Claude Opus 5 Max and Claude Fable 5 variants—lead the leaderboard at roughly 1505–1531 Elo, with OpenAI’s GPT-5.5/5.6 series, Google’s Gemini 3.x models, and Meta’s offerings clustered 20–50 points behind. Incremental gains from recent releases and fine-tunes have narrowed gaps modestly but not produced the rapid jumps needed to clear 1550 before year-end. Anthropic’s edge (9.5%) stems from its sustained dominance across multiple high-vote entries, while lower odds for OpenAI (6.0%), Google (1.5%), xAI, DeepSeek, and others reflect both current positioning and the limited remaining runway for frontier-scale capability jumps. Market-implied odds treat further 2026 releases as unlikely to deliver the required ~20–50 point leap in the final months.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · Zaktualizowano
Uważaj na linki zewnętrzne.
Uważaj na linki zewnętrzne.
Często zadawane pytania