Ahsanul Hafiz leads trader consensus at 67% in the September 3, 2026, Ontario provincial by-election for Scarborough Southwest, ahead of Fatima Shaban at 31%, with other declared candidates such as Noor Tarun, Mark Bekkering, and Chris Rees trading at minimal levels. The Liberal nominee secured the riding’s nomination in May after a narrow three-ballot victory over a sitting federal MP, demonstrating organized party support and fundraising capacity as a local business owner. The riding’s 2025 results showed the NDP ahead of the PCs and Liberals, yet the by-election occurs amid visible Liberal campaign activity, including sign installations and voter outreach. Shaban, nominated by the NDP in April as a community organizer, faces a competitive three-way contest with the PCs fielding a physician candidate. Traders appear to price in Hafiz’s organizational edge and the short timeline to election day as the primary drivers of current implied probabilities.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · ZaktualizowanoAhsanul Hafiz 67%
Fatima Shaban 31%
Noor Tarun <1%
Mark Bekkering <1%
$12,437 Wol.
$12,437 Wol.
Ahsanul Hafiz
67%
Fatima Shaban
31%
Noor Tarun
1%
Mark Bekkering
<1%
Chris Rees
<1%
Ahsanul Hafiz 67%
Fatima Shaban 31%
Noor Tarun <1%
Mark Bekkering <1%
$12,437 Wol.
$12,437 Wol.
Ahsanul Hafiz
67%
Fatima Shaban
31%
Noor Tarun
1%
Mark Bekkering
<1%
Chris Rees
<1%
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the 2026 Scarborough Southwest provincial by-election.
If the election results are not known definitively by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official election results as published by Elections Ontario (https://www.elections.on.ca/).
Rynek otwarty: Aug 20, 2026, 5:46 AM ET
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the 2026 Scarborough Southwest provincial by-election.
If the election results are not known definitively by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official election results as published by Elections Ontario (https://www.elections.on.ca/).
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...Ahsanul Hafiz leads trader consensus at 67% in the September 3, 2026, Ontario provincial by-election for Scarborough Southwest, ahead of Fatima Shaban at 31%, with other declared candidates such as Noor Tarun, Mark Bekkering, and Chris Rees trading at minimal levels. The Liberal nominee secured the riding’s nomination in May after a narrow three-ballot victory over a sitting federal MP, demonstrating organized party support and fundraising capacity as a local business owner. The riding’s 2025 results showed the NDP ahead of the PCs and Liberals, yet the by-election occurs amid visible Liberal campaign activity, including sign installations and voter outreach. Shaban, nominated by the NDP in April as a community organizer, faces a competitive three-way contest with the PCs fielding a physician candidate. Traders appear to price in Hafiz’s organizational edge and the short timeline to election day as the primary drivers of current implied probabilities.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · Zaktualizowano
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