Recent observational data from Copernicus and NOAA indicate global surface temperatures for May 2026 are tracking within the 1.10–1.14°C anomaly range above pre-industrial levels, aligning with the market's 97.1% implied probability. This positioning reflects a cooling influence from the prior La Niña phase transitioning toward neutral-to-weak El Niño conditions in the equatorial Pacific, combined with typical seasonal variability and model consensus from agency forecasts. While strong scientific agreement supports this bin, final verified measurements could shift if late-May data revisions or regional extremes alter the monthly average. Key resolution thresholds center on official global mean calculations released in coming weeks.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · ZaktualizowanoMay 2026 Temperature Increase (ºC)
May 2026 Temperature Increase (ºC)
1.10–1.14ºC 97.1%
<1.10ºC 1.5%
1.15–1.19ºC <1%
1.20–1.24ºC <1%
$191,906 Wol.
$191,906 Wol.
Jun 10, 2026
<1.10ºC
2%
1.10–1.14ºC
97%
1.15–1.19ºC
1%
1.20–1.24ºC
<1%
1.25–1.29ºC
<1%
>1.29ºC
<1%
1.10–1.14ºC 97.1%
<1.10ºC 1.5%
1.15–1.19ºC <1%
1.20–1.24ºC <1%
$191,906 Wol.
$191,906 Wol.
Jun 10, 2026
<1.10ºC
$60,966 Wol.
2%
1.10–1.14ºC
$24,187 Wol.
97%
1.15–1.19ºC
$37,069 Wol.
1%
1.20–1.24ºC
$22,961 Wol.
<1%
1.25–1.29ºC
$20,360 Wol.
<1%
>1.29ºC
$26,363 Wol.
<1%
This market will resolve according to the value reported by the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for May 2026 when it is released.
An anomaly within a named bracket for May 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for May 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "May" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for May 2026 is provided by NASA by July 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.Recent observational data from Copernicus and NOAA indicate global surface temperatures for May 2026 are tracking within the 1.10–1.14°C anomaly range above pre-industrial levels, aligning with the market's 97.1% implied probability. This positioning reflects a cooling influence from the prior La Niña phase transitioning toward neutral-to-weak El Niño conditions in the equatorial Pacific, combined with typical seasonal variability and model consensus from agency forecasts. While strong scientific agreement supports this bin, final verified measurements could shift if late-May data revisions or regional extremes alter the monthly average. Key resolution thresholds center on official global mean calculations released in coming weeks.
This market will resolve according to the value reported by the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for May 2026 when it is released.
An anomaly within a named bracket for May 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for May 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "May" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for May 2026 is provided by NASA by July 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
An anomaly within a named bracket for May 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for May 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "May" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for May 2026 is provided by NASA by July 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
Rynek otwarty: Apr 27, 2026, 4:35 PM ET
Wolumen
$191,906Data zakończenia
Jun 10, 2026Rynek otwarty
Apr 27, 2026, 4:35 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the value reported by the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for May 2026 when it is released.
An anomaly within a named bracket for May 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for May 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "May" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for May 2026 is provided by NASA by July 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.Recent observational data from Copernicus and NOAA indicate global surface temperatures for May 2026 are tracking within the 1.10–1.14°C anomaly range above pre-industrial levels, aligning with the market's 97.1% implied probability. This positioning reflects a cooling influence from the prior La Niña phase transitioning toward neutral-to-weak El Niño conditions in the equatorial Pacific, combined with typical seasonal variability and model consensus from agency forecasts. While strong scientific agreement supports this bin, final verified measurements could shift if late-May data revisions or regional extremes alter the monthly average. Key resolution thresholds center on official global mean calculations released in coming weeks.
This market will resolve according to the value reported by the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for May 2026 when it is released.
An anomaly within a named bracket for May 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for May 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "May" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for May 2026 is provided by NASA by July 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
An anomaly within a named bracket for May 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for May 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "May" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for May 2026 is provided by NASA by July 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
Wolumen
$191,906Data zakończenia
Jun 10, 2026Rynek otwarty
Apr 27, 2026, 4:35 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent observational data from Copernicus and NOAA indicate global surface temperatures for May 2026 are tracking within the 1.10–1.14°C anomaly range above pre-industrial levels, aligning with the market's 97.1% implied probability. This positioning reflects a cooling influence from the prior La Niña phase transitioning toward neutral-to-weak El Niño conditions in the equatorial Pacific, combined with typical seasonal variability and model consensus from agency forecasts. While strong scientific agreement supports this bin, final verified measurements could shift if late-May data revisions or regional extremes alter the monthly average. Key resolution thresholds center on official global mean calculations released in coming weeks.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · Zaktualizowano
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