Trader consensus shows notable uncertainty around Paris minimum temperatures for September 21, with the 9°C-or-below bucket leading at 35% implied probability but closely trailed by adjacent outcomes. Primary drivers include recent ECMWF and Météo-France model runs projecting a weak cold front and variable cloud cover that could enhance nocturnal radiative cooling, alongside lingering high-pressure influence that may moderate the drop. Historical September climatology places typical overnight lows near 12–14°C, making current ensemble spreads unusually wide due to timing differences in frontal passage and boundary-layer moisture. Fresh model guidance expected within 24 hours will likely narrow the range as resolution criteria approach.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · ZaktualizowanoLowest temperature in Paris on September 21?
Lowest temperature in Paris on September 21?
9°C or below 70%
12°C 36%
13°C 33%
14°C 33%
NOWE
NOWE
Sep 21, 2026
9°C or below
70%
10°C
28%
11°C
18%
12°C
36%
13°C
33%
14°C
33%
15°C
33%
16°C
2%
17°C
2%
18°C
2%
19°C or higher
2%
9°C or below 70%
12°C 36%
13°C 33%
14°C 33%
NOWE
NOWE
Sep 21, 2026
9°C or below
$0 Wol.
70%
10°C
$63 Wol.
28%
11°C
$63 Wol.
18%
12°C
$0 Wol.
36%
13°C
$0 Wol.
33%
14°C
$0 Wol.
33%
15°C
$0 Wol.
33%
16°C
$0 Wol.
2%
17°C
$0 Wol.
2%
18°C
$0 Wol.
2%
19°C or higher
$0 Wol.
2%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 21 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lfpb
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Trader consensus shows notable uncertainty around Paris minimum temperatures for September 21, with the 9°C-or-below bucket leading at 35% implied probability but closely trailed by adjacent outcomes. Primary drivers include recent ECMWF and Météo-France model runs projecting a weak cold front and variable cloud cover that could enhance nocturnal radiative cooling, alongside lingering high-pressure influence that may moderate the drop. Historical September climatology places typical overnight lows near 12–14°C, making current ensemble spreads unusually wide due to timing differences in frontal passage and boundary-layer moisture. Fresh model guidance expected within 24 hours will likely narrow the range as resolution criteria approach.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 21 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lfpb
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lfpb
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Rynek otwarty: Sep 19, 2026, 12:29 AM ET
Wolumen
$126Data zakończenia
Sep 21, 2026Rynek otwarty
Sep 19, 2026, 12:29 AM ETŹródło rozstrzygnięcia
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lfpbRozstrzygający
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 21 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lfpb
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Trader consensus shows notable uncertainty around Paris minimum temperatures for September 21, with the 9°C-or-below bucket leading at 35% implied probability but closely trailed by adjacent outcomes. Primary drivers include recent ECMWF and Météo-France model runs projecting a weak cold front and variable cloud cover that could enhance nocturnal radiative cooling, alongside lingering high-pressure influence that may moderate the drop. Historical September climatology places typical overnight lows near 12–14°C, making current ensemble spreads unusually wide due to timing differences in frontal passage and boundary-layer moisture. Fresh model guidance expected within 24 hours will likely narrow the range as resolution criteria approach.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 21 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lfpb
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lfpb
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Wolumen
$126Data zakończenia
Sep 21, 2026Rynek otwarty
Sep 19, 2026, 12:29 AM ETŹródło rozstrzygnięcia
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lfpbRozstrzygający
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus shows notable uncertainty around Paris minimum temperatures for September 21, with the 9°C-or-below bucket leading at 35% implied probability but closely trailed by adjacent outcomes. Primary drivers include recent ECMWF and Météo-France model runs projecting a weak cold front and variable cloud cover that could enhance nocturnal radiative cooling, alongside lingering high-pressure influence that may moderate the drop. Historical September climatology places typical overnight lows near 12–14°C, making current ensemble spreads unusually wide due to timing differences in frontal passage and boundary-layer moisture. Fresh model guidance expected within 24 hours will likely narrow the range as resolution criteria approach.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · Zaktualizowano
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