Seven Republican senators have already announced they will not seek re-election in the 2026 cycle, establishing a firm baseline that aligns with the 76% consensus on exactly seven. Key departures include Joni Ernst, Thom Tillis, Steve Daines, Alan Armstrong, Cynthia Lummis, and Mitch McConnell, with most declarations occurring between late 2025 and mid-2026 amid broader institutional fatigue and primary pressures. Additional Republican retirements remain possible before filing deadlines but appear limited, supporting the lower probabilities attached to outcomes of nine or eleven. No major new announcements have shifted the count in recent weeks, leaving trader focus on whether the current seven holds or expands modestly before November.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · Zaktualizowano7 76%
11 13.8%
9 4.4%
5 1.6%
$101,383 Wol.
$101,383 Wol.
Aug 30, 2026
<5
1%
5
2%
6
1%
7
76%
8
1%
9
4%
10
1%
11
14%
12+
<1%
7 76%
11 13.8%
9 4.4%
5 1.6%
$101,383 Wol.
$101,383 Wol.
Aug 30, 2026
<5
$22,734 Wol.
1%
5
$17,752 Wol.
2%
6
$27,247 Wol.
1%
7
$16,988 Wol.
76%
8
$4,623 Wol.
1%
9
$2,208 Wol.
4%
10
$1,873 Wol.
1%
11
$2,845 Wol.
14%
12+
$5,112 Wol.
<1%
The 2026 U.S. general elections for Congress are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the total number of Republican members of the U.S. Senate who are considered to be retiring or not seeking reelection in 2026.
For the purposes of this market, a member may be considered not to seek reelection if:
• They publicly announce they are retiring from Congress and will not run for reelection to their current seat
• They choose to run for a different elected office in 2026 instead of running for reelection to their current seat
• They do not seek their party’s nomination for reelection to their current seat, meaning they neither file for reelection nor participate in their party’s nominating process (such as a primary, convention, or caucus)
Only members whose current term is scheduled to end with the 2026 regular election for the Senate may qualify for this market.
This market will not resolve until after the relevant final 2026 candidate filing deadline has passed in all states, which is expected to occur in late August 2026.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.Seven Republican senators have already announced they will not seek re-election in the 2026 cycle, establishing a firm baseline that aligns with the 76% consensus on exactly seven. Key departures include Joni Ernst, Thom Tillis, Steve Daines, Alan Armstrong, Cynthia Lummis, and Mitch McConnell, with most declarations occurring between late 2025 and mid-2026 amid broader institutional fatigue and primary pressures. Additional Republican retirements remain possible before filing deadlines but appear limited, supporting the lower probabilities attached to outcomes of nine or eleven. No major new announcements have shifted the count in recent weeks, leaving trader focus on whether the current seven holds or expands modestly before November.
The 2026 U.S. general elections for Congress are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the total number of Republican members of the U.S. Senate who are considered to be retiring or not seeking reelection in 2026.
For the purposes of this market, a member may be considered not to seek reelection if:
• They publicly announce they are retiring from Congress and will not run for reelection to their current seat
• They choose to run for a different elected office in 2026 instead of running for reelection to their current seat
• They do not seek their party’s nomination for reelection to their current seat, meaning they neither file for reelection nor participate in their party’s nominating process (such as a primary, convention, or caucus)
Only members whose current term is scheduled to end with the 2026 regular election for the Senate may qualify for this market.
This market will not resolve until after the relevant final 2026 candidate filing deadline has passed in all states, which is expected to occur in late August 2026.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
This market will resolve according to the total number of Republican members of the U.S. Senate who are considered to be retiring or not seeking reelection in 2026.
For the purposes of this market, a member may be considered not to seek reelection if:
• They publicly announce they are retiring from Congress and will not run for reelection to their current seat
• They choose to run for a different elected office in 2026 instead of running for reelection to their current seat
• They do not seek their party’s nomination for reelection to their current seat, meaning they neither file for reelection nor participate in their party’s nominating process (such as a primary, convention, or caucus)
Only members whose current term is scheduled to end with the 2026 regular election for the Senate may qualify for this market.
This market will not resolve until after the relevant final 2026 candidate filing deadline has passed in all states, which is expected to occur in late August 2026.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Rynek otwarty: Dec 12, 2025, 6:43 PM ET
Wolumen
$101,383Data zakończenia
Aug 31, 2026Rynek otwarty
Dec 12, 2025, 6:43 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...The 2026 U.S. general elections for Congress are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the total number of Republican members of the U.S. Senate who are considered to be retiring or not seeking reelection in 2026.
For the purposes of this market, a member may be considered not to seek reelection if:
• They publicly announce they are retiring from Congress and will not run for reelection to their current seat
• They choose to run for a different elected office in 2026 instead of running for reelection to their current seat
• They do not seek their party’s nomination for reelection to their current seat, meaning they neither file for reelection nor participate in their party’s nominating process (such as a primary, convention, or caucus)
Only members whose current term is scheduled to end with the 2026 regular election for the Senate may qualify for this market.
This market will not resolve until after the relevant final 2026 candidate filing deadline has passed in all states, which is expected to occur in late August 2026.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.Seven Republican senators have already announced they will not seek re-election in the 2026 cycle, establishing a firm baseline that aligns with the 76% consensus on exactly seven. Key departures include Joni Ernst, Thom Tillis, Steve Daines, Alan Armstrong, Cynthia Lummis, and Mitch McConnell, with most declarations occurring between late 2025 and mid-2026 amid broader institutional fatigue and primary pressures. Additional Republican retirements remain possible before filing deadlines but appear limited, supporting the lower probabilities attached to outcomes of nine or eleven. No major new announcements have shifted the count in recent weeks, leaving trader focus on whether the current seven holds or expands modestly before November.
The 2026 U.S. general elections for Congress are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the total number of Republican members of the U.S. Senate who are considered to be retiring or not seeking reelection in 2026.
For the purposes of this market, a member may be considered not to seek reelection if:
• They publicly announce they are retiring from Congress and will not run for reelection to their current seat
• They choose to run for a different elected office in 2026 instead of running for reelection to their current seat
• They do not seek their party’s nomination for reelection to their current seat, meaning they neither file for reelection nor participate in their party’s nominating process (such as a primary, convention, or caucus)
Only members whose current term is scheduled to end with the 2026 regular election for the Senate may qualify for this market.
This market will not resolve until after the relevant final 2026 candidate filing deadline has passed in all states, which is expected to occur in late August 2026.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
This market will resolve according to the total number of Republican members of the U.S. Senate who are considered to be retiring or not seeking reelection in 2026.
For the purposes of this market, a member may be considered not to seek reelection if:
• They publicly announce they are retiring from Congress and will not run for reelection to their current seat
• They choose to run for a different elected office in 2026 instead of running for reelection to their current seat
• They do not seek their party’s nomination for reelection to their current seat, meaning they neither file for reelection nor participate in their party’s nominating process (such as a primary, convention, or caucus)
Only members whose current term is scheduled to end with the 2026 regular election for the Senate may qualify for this market.
This market will not resolve until after the relevant final 2026 candidate filing deadline has passed in all states, which is expected to occur in late August 2026.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Wolumen
$101,383Data zakończenia
Aug 31, 2026Rynek otwarty
Dec 12, 2025, 6:43 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Seven Republican senators have already announced they will not seek re-election in the 2026 cycle, establishing a firm baseline that aligns with the 76% consensus on exactly seven. Key departures include Joni Ernst, Thom Tillis, Steve Daines, Alan Armstrong, Cynthia Lummis, and Mitch McConnell, with most declarations occurring between late 2025 and mid-2026 amid broader institutional fatigue and primary pressures. Additional Republican retirements remain possible before filing deadlines but appear limited, supporting the lower probabilities attached to outcomes of nine or eleven. No major new announcements have shifted the count in recent weeks, leaving trader focus on whether the current seven holds or expands modestly before November.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · Zaktualizowano
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