Several Democratic House incumbents have already lost renomination in 2026 primaries amid progressive challenges and outsider candidacies, with seven defeats confirmed to date including Diana DeGette in Colorado’s 1st, John Larson in Connecticut’s 1st, Shri Thanedar in Michigan’s 13th, Dan Goldman in New York’s 10th, Adriano Espaillat in New York’s 13th, Al Green in Texas’s 18th, and Julie Johnson in Texas’s 33rd. This tally exceeds typical historical averages for the cycle and reflects redistricting effects in some states plus targeted campaigns against establishment figures. Additional races remain, with ongoing contests involving representatives such as Ed Case and others in California drawing scrutiny for potential upsets. Trader consensus favoring 10-12 total losses aligns with the pattern of elevated primary vulnerability for Democratic incumbents relative to recent cycles, while lower bins appear discounted given confirmed results and the remaining primary calendar.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · Zaktualizowano10-12 41.6%
7-9 25.6%
13-15 9.1%
>15 3.2%
$24,549 Wol.
$24,549 Wol.
<3
<1%
4-6
<1%
7-9
26%
10-12
42%
13-15
9%
>15
3%
10-12 41.6%
7-9 25.6%
13-15 9.1%
>15 3.2%
$24,549 Wol.
$24,549 Wol.
<3
$1,106 Wol.
<1%
4-6
$1,872 Wol.
<1%
7-9
$11,704 Wol.
26%
10-12
$5,176 Wol.
42%
13-15
$2,210 Wol.
9%
>15
$2,481 Wol.
3%
The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026, with congressional primaries running from March through September.
This market will resolve according to the number of Democratic House incumbents who do not win their nominating election to move on to the general election as a result of the 2026 midterm primary elections.
An incumbent will be considered not to have won their election if they are not declared the winner of the election they sought, including if they withdraw, suspend, or otherwise leave the race at any point after officially registering as a candidate, regardless of the reason. Incumbents who do not officially register as candidates for reelection will not be considered.
This market will resolve based on the results of all House nominating elections, including party primaries, top-two or jungle primaries, and primaries for special elections, that are scheduled to occur between March 1 and September 30, 2026. If a required runoff for any such election or a subsequent qualifying round in a non-partisan primary system could change the market’s outcome, the market will remain open until that contest is conclusively called by this market’s resolution sources.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time of their nominating election.
Members of the House of Representatives who are "delegates” or “resident commissioners” not chosen by the people of a state are not included for purposes of resolving this market.
The resolution source for this market will be the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources have conclusively called all relevant nominating elections. If all three sources do not achieve consensus in calling the relevant races for this market, it will resolve based on official state certification of the nominating election results.Several Democratic House incumbents have already lost renomination in 2026 primaries amid progressive challenges and outsider candidacies, with seven defeats confirmed to date including Diana DeGette in Colorado’s 1st, John Larson in Connecticut’s 1st, Shri Thanedar in Michigan’s 13th, Dan Goldman in New York’s 10th, Adriano Espaillat in New York’s 13th, Al Green in Texas’s 18th, and Julie Johnson in Texas’s 33rd. This tally exceeds typical historical averages for the cycle and reflects redistricting effects in some states plus targeted campaigns against establishment figures. Additional races remain, with ongoing contests involving representatives such as Ed Case and others in California drawing scrutiny for potential upsets. Trader consensus favoring 10-12 total losses aligns with the pattern of elevated primary vulnerability for Democratic incumbents relative to recent cycles, while lower bins appear discounted given confirmed results and the remaining primary calendar.
The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026, with congressional primaries running from March through September.
This market will resolve according to the number of Democratic House incumbents who do not win their nominating election to move on to the general election as a result of the 2026 midterm primary elections.
An incumbent will be considered not to have won their election if they are not declared the winner of the election they sought, including if they withdraw, suspend, or otherwise leave the race at any point after officially registering as a candidate, regardless of the reason. Incumbents who do not officially register as candidates for reelection will not be considered.
This market will resolve based on the results of all House nominating elections, including party primaries, top-two or jungle primaries, and primaries for special elections, that are scheduled to occur between March 1 and September 30, 2026. If a required runoff for any such election or a subsequent qualifying round in a non-partisan primary system could change the market’s outcome, the market will remain open until that contest is conclusively called by this market’s resolution sources.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time of their nominating election.
Members of the House of Representatives who are "delegates” or “resident commissioners” not chosen by the people of a state are not included for purposes of resolving this market.
The resolution source for this market will be the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources have conclusively called all relevant nominating elections. If all three sources do not achieve consensus in calling the relevant races for this market, it will resolve based on official state certification of the nominating election results.
This market will resolve according to the number of Democratic House incumbents who do not win their nominating election to move on to the general election as a result of the 2026 midterm primary elections.
An incumbent will be considered not to have won their election if they are not declared the winner of the election they sought, including if they withdraw, suspend, or otherwise leave the race at any point after officially registering as a candidate, regardless of the reason. Incumbents who do not officially register as candidates for reelection will not be considered.
This market will resolve based on the results of all House nominating elections, including party primaries, top-two or jungle primaries, and primaries for special elections, that are scheduled to occur between March 1 and September 30, 2026. If a required runoff for any such election or a subsequent qualifying round in a non-partisan primary system could change the market’s outcome, the market will remain open until that contest is conclusively called by this market’s resolution sources.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time of their nominating election.
Members of the House of Representatives who are "delegates” or “resident commissioners” not chosen by the people of a state are not included for purposes of resolving this market.
The resolution source for this market will be the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources have conclusively called all relevant nominating elections. If all three sources do not achieve consensus in calling the relevant races for this market, it will resolve based on official state certification of the nominating election results.
Rynek otwarty: Jan 14, 2026, 2:55 PM ET
Wolumen
$24,549Rynek otwarty
Jan 14, 2026, 2:55 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Wynik zaproponowany: No
Brak sporu
Ostateczny wynik: No
The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026, with congressional primaries running from March through September.
This market will resolve according to the number of Democratic House incumbents who do not win their nominating election to move on to the general election as a result of the 2026 midterm primary elections.
An incumbent will be considered not to have won their election if they are not declared the winner of the election they sought, including if they withdraw, suspend, or otherwise leave the race at any point after officially registering as a candidate, regardless of the reason. Incumbents who do not officially register as candidates for reelection will not be considered.
This market will resolve based on the results of all House nominating elections, including party primaries, top-two or jungle primaries, and primaries for special elections, that are scheduled to occur between March 1 and September 30, 2026. If a required runoff for any such election or a subsequent qualifying round in a non-partisan primary system could change the market’s outcome, the market will remain open until that contest is conclusively called by this market’s resolution sources.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time of their nominating election.
Members of the House of Representatives who are "delegates” or “resident commissioners” not chosen by the people of a state are not included for purposes of resolving this market.
The resolution source for this market will be the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources have conclusively called all relevant nominating elections. If all three sources do not achieve consensus in calling the relevant races for this market, it will resolve based on official state certification of the nominating election results.Several Democratic House incumbents have already lost renomination in 2026 primaries amid progressive challenges and outsider candidacies, with seven defeats confirmed to date including Diana DeGette in Colorado’s 1st, John Larson in Connecticut’s 1st, Shri Thanedar in Michigan’s 13th, Dan Goldman in New York’s 10th, Adriano Espaillat in New York’s 13th, Al Green in Texas’s 18th, and Julie Johnson in Texas’s 33rd. This tally exceeds typical historical averages for the cycle and reflects redistricting effects in some states plus targeted campaigns against establishment figures. Additional races remain, with ongoing contests involving representatives such as Ed Case and others in California drawing scrutiny for potential upsets. Trader consensus favoring 10-12 total losses aligns with the pattern of elevated primary vulnerability for Democratic incumbents relative to recent cycles, while lower bins appear discounted given confirmed results and the remaining primary calendar.
The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026, with congressional primaries running from March through September.
This market will resolve according to the number of Democratic House incumbents who do not win their nominating election to move on to the general election as a result of the 2026 midterm primary elections.
An incumbent will be considered not to have won their election if they are not declared the winner of the election they sought, including if they withdraw, suspend, or otherwise leave the race at any point after officially registering as a candidate, regardless of the reason. Incumbents who do not officially register as candidates for reelection will not be considered.
This market will resolve based on the results of all House nominating elections, including party primaries, top-two or jungle primaries, and primaries for special elections, that are scheduled to occur between March 1 and September 30, 2026. If a required runoff for any such election or a subsequent qualifying round in a non-partisan primary system could change the market’s outcome, the market will remain open until that contest is conclusively called by this market’s resolution sources.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time of their nominating election.
Members of the House of Representatives who are "delegates” or “resident commissioners” not chosen by the people of a state are not included for purposes of resolving this market.
The resolution source for this market will be the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources have conclusively called all relevant nominating elections. If all three sources do not achieve consensus in calling the relevant races for this market, it will resolve based on official state certification of the nominating election results.
This market will resolve according to the number of Democratic House incumbents who do not win their nominating election to move on to the general election as a result of the 2026 midterm primary elections.
An incumbent will be considered not to have won their election if they are not declared the winner of the election they sought, including if they withdraw, suspend, or otherwise leave the race at any point after officially registering as a candidate, regardless of the reason. Incumbents who do not officially register as candidates for reelection will not be considered.
This market will resolve based on the results of all House nominating elections, including party primaries, top-two or jungle primaries, and primaries for special elections, that are scheduled to occur between March 1 and September 30, 2026. If a required runoff for any such election or a subsequent qualifying round in a non-partisan primary system could change the market’s outcome, the market will remain open until that contest is conclusively called by this market’s resolution sources.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time of their nominating election.
Members of the House of Representatives who are "delegates” or “resident commissioners” not chosen by the people of a state are not included for purposes of resolving this market.
The resolution source for this market will be the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources have conclusively called all relevant nominating elections. If all three sources do not achieve consensus in calling the relevant races for this market, it will resolve based on official state certification of the nominating election results.
Wolumen
$24,549Rynek otwarty
Jan 14, 2026, 2:55 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Wynik zaproponowany: No
Brak sporu
Ostateczny wynik: No
Several Democratic House incumbents have already lost renomination in 2026 primaries amid progressive challenges and outsider candidacies, with seven defeats confirmed to date including Diana DeGette in Colorado’s 1st, John Larson in Connecticut’s 1st, Shri Thanedar in Michigan’s 13th, Dan Goldman in New York’s 10th, Adriano Espaillat in New York’s 13th, Al Green in Texas’s 18th, and Julie Johnson in Texas’s 33rd. This tally exceeds typical historical averages for the cycle and reflects redistricting effects in some states plus targeted campaigns against establishment figures. Additional races remain, with ongoing contests involving representatives such as Ed Case and others in California drawing scrutiny for potential upsets. Trader consensus favoring 10-12 total losses aligns with the pattern of elevated primary vulnerability for Democratic incumbents relative to recent cycles, while lower bins appear discounted given confirmed results and the remaining primary calendar.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · Zaktualizowano
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