Hawaii's 1st congressional district maintains a strong Democratic partisan advantage, reflected in its Cook Partisan Voting Index and decades without a Republican general election victory. Incumbent Ed Case secured the Democratic nomination in the August 8 primary against state Sen. Jarrett Keohokalole and other challengers, reinforcing party control ahead of the November 3 general election. Trader consensus around 94.5% for the Democratic Party outcome tracks the district's consistent electoral history and limited Republican recruitment. Scenarios that could shift odds remain narrow, such as an unforeseen national political realignment or late candidate withdrawal, though structural factors including voter registration patterns and past margins continue to anchor expectations for the seat.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · ZaktualizowanoHI-01 House Election Winner
HI-01 House Election Winner
$28,336 Wol.
$28,336 Wol.
Nov 3, 2026
Democratic Party
95%
Republican Party
6%
$28,336 Wol.
$28,336 Wol.
Nov 3, 2026
Democratic Party
$14,677 Wol.
95%
Republican Party
$13,658 Wol.
6%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the HI-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Hawaii's 1st congressional district maintains a strong Democratic partisan advantage, reflected in its Cook Partisan Voting Index and decades without a Republican general election victory. Incumbent Ed Case secured the Democratic nomination in the August 8 primary against state Sen. Jarrett Keohokalole and other challengers, reinforcing party control ahead of the November 3 general election. Trader consensus around 94.5% for the Democratic Party outcome tracks the district's consistent electoral history and limited Republican recruitment. Scenarios that could shift odds remain narrow, such as an unforeseen national political realignment or late candidate withdrawal, though structural factors including voter registration patterns and past margins continue to anchor expectations for the seat.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the HI-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Rynek otwarty: Jan 28, 2026, 11:08 AM ET
Wolumen
$28,336Data zakończenia
Nov 3, 2026Rynek otwarty
Jan 28, 2026, 11:08 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the HI-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Hawaii's 1st congressional district maintains a strong Democratic partisan advantage, reflected in its Cook Partisan Voting Index and decades without a Republican general election victory. Incumbent Ed Case secured the Democratic nomination in the August 8 primary against state Sen. Jarrett Keohokalole and other challengers, reinforcing party control ahead of the November 3 general election. Trader consensus around 94.5% for the Democratic Party outcome tracks the district's consistent electoral history and limited Republican recruitment. Scenarios that could shift odds remain narrow, such as an unforeseen national political realignment or late candidate withdrawal, though structural factors including voter registration patterns and past margins continue to anchor expectations for the seat.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the HI-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Wolumen
$28,336Data zakończenia
Nov 3, 2026Rynek otwarty
Jan 28, 2026, 11:08 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Hawaii's 1st congressional district maintains a strong Democratic partisan advantage, reflected in its Cook Partisan Voting Index and decades without a Republican general election victory. Incumbent Ed Case secured the Democratic nomination in the August 8 primary against state Sen. Jarrett Keohokalole and other challengers, reinforcing party control ahead of the November 3 general election. Trader consensus around 94.5% for the Democratic Party outcome tracks the district's consistent electoral history and limited Republican recruitment. Scenarios that could shift odds remain narrow, such as an unforeseen national political realignment or late candidate withdrawal, though structural factors including voter registration patterns and past margins continue to anchor expectations for the seat.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · Zaktualizowano
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