Christopher Luxon’s position as New Zealand prime minister remains secure through September 30, reflected in the 93.5 percent implied probability traders assign to “No.” He survived a second National Party caucus confidence vote on August 12, defeating a leadership challenge from Defence Minister Chris Penk, whom Luxon promptly removed from cabinet. Senior ministers publicly affirmed unity afterward, and the party has directed focus toward its November 7 general election campaign amid sluggish economic growth and low personal polling. With only three sitting weeks remaining before Parliament rises and no active no-confidence motion or resignation signals, institutional barriers and the short timeline limit prospects for removal. Recent RNZ-Reid Research polling shows public skepticism about the caucus decision but no organized pressure capable of forcing change before the deadline.