**Becerra holds a consistent double-digit lead over Hilton in recent general election polling, driven by California's Democratic registration edge and broad party-line support, yet the margin remains uncertain enough to sustain dispersed market pricing across victory brackets.** Post-June top-two primary, Becerra consolidated endorsements from party figures including Newsom and Steyer while Hilton focused on cost-of-living messaging such as lower energy prices and deregulation. Polls from July–August show Becerra ahead by 18–25 points among likely voters, with sharp urban-rural and partisan divides, though one August survey narrowed the gap to eight points. Key variables include no-party-preference turnout, undecided voters near 7–10%, and any late shifts tied to state economic conditions or national political developments before November 3. These factors explain why traders assign notable probability both to large Becerra margins and closer outcomes or an upset.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · ZaktualizowanoCalifornia Governor Election Margin of Victory
California Governor Election Margin of Victory
Becerra 40%+ 26%
Becerra 10-15% 21%
Hilton Wins 18%
Becerra 20-25% 16%
NOWE
NOWE
Nov 3, 2026
Becerra 40%+
26%
Becerra 35-40%
7%
Becerra 30-35%
6%
Becerra 25-30%
5%
Becerra 20-25%
16%
Becerra 15-20%
11%
Becerra 10-15%
21%
Becerra 0-10%
6%
Hilton Wins
18%
Becerra 40%+ 26%
Becerra 10-15% 21%
Hilton Wins 18%
Becerra 20-25% 16%
NOWE
NOWE
Nov 3, 2026
Becerra 40%+
$116 Wol.
26%
Becerra 35-40%
$41 Wol.
7%
Becerra 30-35%
$32 Wol.
6%
Becerra 25-30%
$32 Wol.
5%
Becerra 20-25%
$51 Wol.
16%
Becerra 15-20%
$51 Wol.
11%
Becerra 10-15%
$46 Wol.
21%
Becerra 0-10%
$36 Wol.
6%
Hilton Wins
$51 Wol.
18%
The 2026 California gubernatorial election is currently expected to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the specified election.
The "margin of victory" is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
The candidates named in this market are individual candidates appearing on the general election ballot. They do not represent party options, and this market will not resolve based on the party affiliation of any candidate.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If two or more candidates tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between two candidates listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose ballot-listed last name comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed candidate and an unlisted candidate, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed candidate. If the tie is between two or more unlisted candidates, this market will resolve to "Other."
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the election results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 California gubernatorial election as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.**Becerra holds a consistent double-digit lead over Hilton in recent general election polling, driven by California's Democratic registration edge and broad party-line support, yet the margin remains uncertain enough to sustain dispersed market pricing across victory brackets.**
Post-June top-two primary, Becerra consolidated endorsements from party figures including Newsom and Steyer while Hilton focused on cost-of-living messaging such as lower energy prices and deregulation. Polls from July–August show Becerra ahead by 18–25 points among likely voters, with sharp urban-rural and partisan divides, though one August survey narrowed the gap to eight points. Key variables include no-party-preference turnout, undecided voters near 7–10%, and any late shifts tied to state economic conditions or national political developments before November 3. These factors explain why traders assign notable probability both to large Becerra margins and closer outcomes or an upset.
The 2026 California gubernatorial election is currently expected to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the specified election.
The "margin of victory" is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
The candidates named in this market are individual candidates appearing on the general election ballot. They do not represent party options, and this market will not resolve based on the party affiliation of any candidate.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If two or more candidates tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between two candidates listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose ballot-listed last name comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed candidate and an unlisted candidate, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed candidate. If the tie is between two or more unlisted candidates, this market will resolve to "Other."
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the election results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 California gubernatorial election as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the specified election.
The "margin of victory" is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
The candidates named in this market are individual candidates appearing on the general election ballot. They do not represent party options, and this market will not resolve based on the party affiliation of any candidate.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If two or more candidates tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between two candidates listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose ballot-listed last name comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed candidate and an unlisted candidate, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed candidate. If the tie is between two or more unlisted candidates, this market will resolve to "Other."
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the election results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 California gubernatorial election as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Rynek otwarty: Sep 2, 2026, 3:21 PM ET
Wolumen
$456Data zakończenia
Nov 3, 2026Rynek otwarty
Sep 2, 2026, 3:21 PM ETRozstrzygający
0x69c47De9D...The 2026 California gubernatorial election is currently expected to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the specified election.
The "margin of victory" is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
The candidates named in this market are individual candidates appearing on the general election ballot. They do not represent party options, and this market will not resolve based on the party affiliation of any candidate.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If two or more candidates tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between two candidates listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose ballot-listed last name comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed candidate and an unlisted candidate, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed candidate. If the tie is between two or more unlisted candidates, this market will resolve to "Other."
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the election results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 California gubernatorial election as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.**Becerra holds a consistent double-digit lead over Hilton in recent general election polling, driven by California's Democratic registration edge and broad party-line support, yet the margin remains uncertain enough to sustain dispersed market pricing across victory brackets.**
Post-June top-two primary, Becerra consolidated endorsements from party figures including Newsom and Steyer while Hilton focused on cost-of-living messaging such as lower energy prices and deregulation. Polls from July–August show Becerra ahead by 18–25 points among likely voters, with sharp urban-rural and partisan divides, though one August survey narrowed the gap to eight points. Key variables include no-party-preference turnout, undecided voters near 7–10%, and any late shifts tied to state economic conditions or national political developments before November 3. These factors explain why traders assign notable probability both to large Becerra margins and closer outcomes or an upset.
The 2026 California gubernatorial election is currently expected to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the specified election.
The "margin of victory" is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
The candidates named in this market are individual candidates appearing on the general election ballot. They do not represent party options, and this market will not resolve based on the party affiliation of any candidate.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If two or more candidates tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between two candidates listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose ballot-listed last name comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed candidate and an unlisted candidate, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed candidate. If the tie is between two or more unlisted candidates, this market will resolve to "Other."
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the election results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 California gubernatorial election as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the specified election.
The "margin of victory" is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
The candidates named in this market are individual candidates appearing on the general election ballot. They do not represent party options, and this market will not resolve based on the party affiliation of any candidate.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If two or more candidates tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between two candidates listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose ballot-listed last name comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed candidate and an unlisted candidate, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed candidate. If the tie is between two or more unlisted candidates, this market will resolve to "Other."
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the election results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 California gubernatorial election as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Wolumen
$456Data zakończenia
Nov 3, 2026Rynek otwarty
Sep 2, 2026, 3:21 PM ETRozstrzygający
0x69c47De9D...**Becerra holds a consistent double-digit lead over Hilton in recent general election polling, driven by California's Democratic registration edge and broad party-line support, yet the margin remains uncertain enough to sustain dispersed market pricing across victory brackets.** Post-June top-two primary, Becerra consolidated endorsements from party figures including Newsom and Steyer while Hilton focused on cost-of-living messaging such as lower energy prices and deregulation. Polls from July–August show Becerra ahead by 18–25 points among likely voters, with sharp urban-rural and partisan divides, though one August survey narrowed the gap to eight points. Key variables include no-party-preference turnout, undecided voters near 7–10%, and any late shifts tied to state economic conditions or national political developments before November 3. These factors explain why traders assign notable probability both to large Becerra margins and closer outcomes or an upset.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · Zaktualizowano
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