The tight 30-day window until August 31, 2026, combined with stalled diplomatic momentum, drives the 95.3% trader consensus against a new country joining the Abraham Accords. Kazakhstan formalized accession in November 2025 and Somaliland pledged in December 2025, but no comparable announcements, summits, or bilateral breakthroughs have occurred since. Saudi Arabia continues to condition normalization on Palestinian statehood progress, while prospects involving Syria, Lebanon, or other Arab states remain blocked by ongoing regional tensions and military operations. Historical patterns show that formal signings require preparatory negotiations and public ceremonies that cannot realistically be completed in such a short period without prior groundwork. A late surprise announcement or rapid symbolic accession by a nation already maintaining quiet ties with Israel remains theoretically possible but lacks supporting evidence in current diplomatic reporting.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日はい
新規
新規
2026/08/31
はい
新規
新規
2026/08/31
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any country not already a part of the Abraham Accords formally signs a normalization agreement with Israel under the framework of the Abraham Accords by August 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A formal signing refers to an official agreement between Israel and another country that is publicly acknowledged by both governments and clearly attributed to the Abraham Accords or their continuation. Such a signing will qualify regardless of whether a country had an established diplomatic relationship with Israel predating this event; their becoming a signatory of the Abraham Accords qualifies as normalizing relations under the framework of that agreement.
For the purposes of this market, Somaliland will count as a country.
Countries already part of the Abraham Accords as of market creation—including the United Arab Emirates, Bahrain, Morocco, and Sudan—will not count.
The resolution source will be official government statements, however a consensus for credible reporting may also be used.The tight 30-day window until August 31, 2026, combined with stalled diplomatic momentum, drives the 95.3% trader consensus against a new country joining the Abraham Accords. Kazakhstan formalized accession in November 2025 and Somaliland pledged in December 2025, but no comparable announcements, summits, or bilateral breakthroughs have occurred since. Saudi Arabia continues to condition normalization on Palestinian statehood progress, while prospects involving Syria, Lebanon, or other Arab states remain blocked by ongoing regional tensions and military operations. Historical patterns show that formal signings require preparatory negotiations and public ceremonies that cannot realistically be completed in such a short period without prior groundwork. A late surprise announcement or rapid symbolic accession by a nation already maintaining quiet ties with Israel remains theoretically possible but lacks supporting evidence in current diplomatic reporting.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any country not already a part of the Abraham Accords formally signs a normalization agreement with Israel under the framework of the Abraham Accords by August 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A formal signing refers to an official agreement between Israel and another country that is publicly acknowledged by both governments and clearly attributed to the Abraham Accords or their continuation. Such a signing will qualify regardless of whether a country had an established diplomatic relationship with Israel predating this event; their becoming a signatory of the Abraham Accords qualifies as normalizing relations under the framework of that agreement.
For the purposes of this market, Somaliland will count as a country.
Countries already part of the Abraham Accords as of market creation—including the United Arab Emirates, Bahrain, Morocco, and Sudan—will not count.
The resolution source will be official government statements, however a consensus for credible reporting may also be used.
A formal signing refers to an official agreement between Israel and another country that is publicly acknowledged by both governments and clearly attributed to the Abraham Accords or their continuation. Such a signing will qualify regardless of whether a country had an established diplomatic relationship with Israel predating this event; their becoming a signatory of the Abraham Accords qualifies as normalizing relations under the framework of that agreement.
For the purposes of this market, Somaliland will count as a country.
Countries already part of the Abraham Accords as of market creation—including the United Arab Emirates, Bahrain, Morocco, and Sudan—will not count.
The resolution source will be official government statements, however a consensus for credible reporting may also be used.
マーケット開始日： Jul 31, 2026, 2:10 PM ET
音量
$586終了日
2026/08/31マーケット開始日
Jul 31, 2026, 2:10 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if any country not already a part of the Abraham Accords formally signs a normalization agreement with Israel under the framework of the Abraham Accords by August 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A formal signing refers to an official agreement between Israel and another country that is publicly acknowledged by both governments and clearly attributed to the Abraham Accords or their continuation. Such a signing will qualify regardless of whether a country had an established diplomatic relationship with Israel predating this event; their becoming a signatory of the Abraham Accords qualifies as normalizing relations under the framework of that agreement.
For the purposes of this market, Somaliland will count as a country.
Countries already part of the Abraham Accords as of market creation—including the United Arab Emirates, Bahrain, Morocco, and Sudan—will not count.
The resolution source will be official government statements, however a consensus for credible reporting may also be used.The tight 30-day window until August 31, 2026, combined with stalled diplomatic momentum, drives the 95.3% trader consensus against a new country joining the Abraham Accords. Kazakhstan formalized accession in November 2025 and Somaliland pledged in December 2025, but no comparable announcements, summits, or bilateral breakthroughs have occurred since. Saudi Arabia continues to condition normalization on Palestinian statehood progress, while prospects involving Syria, Lebanon, or other Arab states remain blocked by ongoing regional tensions and military operations. Historical patterns show that formal signings require preparatory negotiations and public ceremonies that cannot realistically be completed in such a short period without prior groundwork. A late surprise announcement or rapid symbolic accession by a nation already maintaining quiet ties with Israel remains theoretically possible but lacks supporting evidence in current diplomatic reporting.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any country not already a part of the Abraham Accords formally signs a normalization agreement with Israel under the framework of the Abraham Accords by August 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A formal signing refers to an official agreement between Israel and another country that is publicly acknowledged by both governments and clearly attributed to the Abraham Accords or their continuation. Such a signing will qualify regardless of whether a country had an established diplomatic relationship with Israel predating this event; their becoming a signatory of the Abraham Accords qualifies as normalizing relations under the framework of that agreement.
For the purposes of this market, Somaliland will count as a country.
Countries already part of the Abraham Accords as of market creation—including the United Arab Emirates, Bahrain, Morocco, and Sudan—will not count.
The resolution source will be official government statements, however a consensus for credible reporting may also be used.
A formal signing refers to an official agreement between Israel and another country that is publicly acknowledged by both governments and clearly attributed to the Abraham Accords or their continuation. Such a signing will qualify regardless of whether a country had an established diplomatic relationship with Israel predating this event; their becoming a signatory of the Abraham Accords qualifies as normalizing relations under the framework of that agreement.
For the purposes of this market, Somaliland will count as a country.
Countries already part of the Abraham Accords as of market creation—including the United Arab Emirates, Bahrain, Morocco, and Sudan—will not count.
The resolution source will be official government statements, however a consensus for credible reporting may also be used.
音量
$586終了日
2026/08/31マーケット開始日
Jul 31, 2026, 2:10 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...The tight 30-day window until August 31, 2026, combined with stalled diplomatic momentum, drives the 95.3% trader consensus against a new country joining the Abraham Accords. Kazakhstan formalized accession in November 2025 and Somaliland pledged in December 2025, but no comparable announcements, summits, or bilateral breakthroughs have occurred since. Saudi Arabia continues to condition normalization on Palestinian statehood progress, while prospects involving Syria, Lebanon, or other Arab states remain blocked by ongoing regional tensions and military operations. Historical patterns show that formal signings require preparatory negotiations and public ceremonies that cannot realistically be completed in such a short period without prior groundwork. A late surprise announcement or rapid symbolic accession by a nation already maintaining quiet ties with Israel remains theoretically possible but lacks supporting evidence in current diplomatic reporting.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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