Traders assign a 95.3% implied probability to no new country joining the Abraham Accords by August 31, 2026, reflecting the absence of active bilateral negotiations or diplomatic signals pointing to an imminent normalization agreement. Potential candidates such as Saudi Arabia remain stalled over linkage to Palestinian issues, despite recent U.S. statements conditioning nuclear cooperation on accession. Other regional actors have shown no movement in the past month that could produce a completed accord within the narrow 30-day window. Diplomatic normalization processes typically require extended consultations, public announcements, and formal ceremonies that exceed this timeframe. Late developments capable of altering the outcome remain narrow, limited to an unforeseen breakthrough announcement or rapid multilateral push tied to concurrent regional diplomacy.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日はい
新規
新規
2026/08/31
はい
新規
新規
2026/08/31
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any country not already a part of the Abraham Accords formally signs a normalization agreement with Israel under the framework of the Abraham Accords by August 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A formal signing refers to an official agreement between Israel and another country that is publicly acknowledged by both governments and clearly attributed to the Abraham Accords or their continuation. Such a signing will qualify regardless of whether a country had an established diplomatic relationship with Israel predating this event; their becoming a signatory of the Abraham Accords qualifies as normalizing relations under the framework of that agreement.
For the purposes of this market, Somaliland will count as a country.
Countries already part of the Abraham Accords as of market creation—including the United Arab Emirates, Bahrain, Morocco, and Sudan—will not count.
The resolution source will be official government statements, however a consensus for credible reporting may also be used.Traders assign a 95.3% implied probability to no new country joining the Abraham Accords by August 31, 2026, reflecting the absence of active bilateral negotiations or diplomatic signals pointing to an imminent normalization agreement. Potential candidates such as Saudi Arabia remain stalled over linkage to Palestinian issues, despite recent U.S. statements conditioning nuclear cooperation on accession. Other regional actors have shown no movement in the past month that could produce a completed accord within the narrow 30-day window. Diplomatic normalization processes typically require extended consultations, public announcements, and formal ceremonies that exceed this timeframe. Late developments capable of altering the outcome remain narrow, limited to an unforeseen breakthrough announcement or rapid multilateral push tied to concurrent regional diplomacy.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any country not already a part of the Abraham Accords formally signs a normalization agreement with Israel under the framework of the Abraham Accords by August 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A formal signing refers to an official agreement between Israel and another country that is publicly acknowledged by both governments and clearly attributed to the Abraham Accords or their continuation. Such a signing will qualify regardless of whether a country had an established diplomatic relationship with Israel predating this event; their becoming a signatory of the Abraham Accords qualifies as normalizing relations under the framework of that agreement.
For the purposes of this market, Somaliland will count as a country.
Countries already part of the Abraham Accords as of market creation—including the United Arab Emirates, Bahrain, Morocco, and Sudan—will not count.
The resolution source will be official government statements, however a consensus for credible reporting may also be used.
A formal signing refers to an official agreement between Israel and another country that is publicly acknowledged by both governments and clearly attributed to the Abraham Accords or their continuation. Such a signing will qualify regardless of whether a country had an established diplomatic relationship with Israel predating this event; their becoming a signatory of the Abraham Accords qualifies as normalizing relations under the framework of that agreement.
For the purposes of this market, Somaliland will count as a country.
Countries already part of the Abraham Accords as of market creation—including the United Arab Emirates, Bahrain, Morocco, and Sudan—will not count.
The resolution source will be official government statements, however a consensus for credible reporting may also be used.
マーケット開始日： Jul 31, 2026, 2:10 PM ET
音量
$586終了日
2026/08/31マーケット開始日
Jul 31, 2026, 2:10 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if any country not already a part of the Abraham Accords formally signs a normalization agreement with Israel under the framework of the Abraham Accords by August 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A formal signing refers to an official agreement between Israel and another country that is publicly acknowledged by both governments and clearly attributed to the Abraham Accords or their continuation. Such a signing will qualify regardless of whether a country had an established diplomatic relationship with Israel predating this event; their becoming a signatory of the Abraham Accords qualifies as normalizing relations under the framework of that agreement.
For the purposes of this market, Somaliland will count as a country.
Countries already part of the Abraham Accords as of market creation—including the United Arab Emirates, Bahrain, Morocco, and Sudan—will not count.
The resolution source will be official government statements, however a consensus for credible reporting may also be used.Traders assign a 95.3% implied probability to no new country joining the Abraham Accords by August 31, 2026, reflecting the absence of active bilateral negotiations or diplomatic signals pointing to an imminent normalization agreement. Potential candidates such as Saudi Arabia remain stalled over linkage to Palestinian issues, despite recent U.S. statements conditioning nuclear cooperation on accession. Other regional actors have shown no movement in the past month that could produce a completed accord within the narrow 30-day window. Diplomatic normalization processes typically require extended consultations, public announcements, and formal ceremonies that exceed this timeframe. Late developments capable of altering the outcome remain narrow, limited to an unforeseen breakthrough announcement or rapid multilateral push tied to concurrent regional diplomacy.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any country not already a part of the Abraham Accords formally signs a normalization agreement with Israel under the framework of the Abraham Accords by August 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A formal signing refers to an official agreement between Israel and another country that is publicly acknowledged by both governments and clearly attributed to the Abraham Accords or their continuation. Such a signing will qualify regardless of whether a country had an established diplomatic relationship with Israel predating this event; their becoming a signatory of the Abraham Accords qualifies as normalizing relations under the framework of that agreement.
For the purposes of this market, Somaliland will count as a country.
Countries already part of the Abraham Accords as of market creation—including the United Arab Emirates, Bahrain, Morocco, and Sudan—will not count.
The resolution source will be official government statements, however a consensus for credible reporting may also be used.
A formal signing refers to an official agreement between Israel and another country that is publicly acknowledged by both governments and clearly attributed to the Abraham Accords or their continuation. Such a signing will qualify regardless of whether a country had an established diplomatic relationship with Israel predating this event; their becoming a signatory of the Abraham Accords qualifies as normalizing relations under the framework of that agreement.
For the purposes of this market, Somaliland will count as a country.
Countries already part of the Abraham Accords as of market creation—including the United Arab Emirates, Bahrain, Morocco, and Sudan—will not count.
The resolution source will be official government statements, however a consensus for credible reporting may also be used.
音量
$586終了日
2026/08/31マーケット開始日
Jul 31, 2026, 2:10 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Traders assign a 95.3% implied probability to no new country joining the Abraham Accords by August 31, 2026, reflecting the absence of active bilateral negotiations or diplomatic signals pointing to an imminent normalization agreement. Potential candidates such as Saudi Arabia remain stalled over linkage to Palestinian issues, despite recent U.S. statements conditioning nuclear cooperation on accession. Other regional actors have shown no movement in the past month that could produce a completed accord within the narrow 30-day window. Diplomatic normalization processes typically require extended consultations, public announcements, and formal ceremonies that exceed this timeframe. Late developments capable of altering the outcome remain narrow, limited to an unforeseen breakthrough announcement or rapid multilateral push tied to concurrent regional diplomacy.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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