Bipartisan congressional legislation prohibiting formal U.S. recognition of Russian sovereignty over Crimea, combined with sustained Ukrainian and European allied opposition, has anchored trader consensus against the outcome before the December 31, 2026 deadline. Early 2025 proposals floated during Trump administration peace efforts to include de jure acknowledgment in exchange for a ceasefire encountered immediate resistance over concerns about legitimizing territorial changes by force, leaving negotiations stalled amid continued hostilities. Longstanding U.S. policy of non-recognition, reinforced across administrations and backed by measures such as the Crimea Annexation Non-Recognition Act, further limits executive flexibility without broader congressional or allied support. A sudden comprehensive settlement incorporating such recognition remains a low-probability scenario that could still shift the implied probability before year-end.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日はい
3% 確率
$73,993 Vol.
$73,993 Vol.
2026/12/30
はい
3% 確率
$73,993 Vol.
$73,993 Vol.
2026/12/30
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the U.S. government formally recognizes Russian sovereignty over the majority of the Crimean peninsula by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Donald Trump's March 25, 2019, recognition of Israel's sovereignty over the Golan Heights is an example of a qualifying action.
Statement of intents, or announcements of planned recognition will not qualify.
The resolution source for this market will be the U.S. Government, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Bipartisan congressional legislation prohibiting formal U.S. recognition of Russian sovereignty over Crimea, combined with sustained Ukrainian and European allied opposition, has anchored trader consensus against the outcome before the December 31, 2026 deadline. Early 2025 proposals floated during Trump administration peace efforts to include de jure acknowledgment in exchange for a ceasefire encountered immediate resistance over concerns about legitimizing territorial changes by force, leaving negotiations stalled amid continued hostilities. Longstanding U.S. policy of non-recognition, reinforced across administrations and backed by measures such as the Crimea Annexation Non-Recognition Act, further limits executive flexibility without broader congressional or allied support. A sudden comprehensive settlement incorporating such recognition remains a low-probability scenario that could still shift the implied probability before year-end.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the U.S. government formally recognizes Russian sovereignty over the majority of the Crimean peninsula by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Donald Trump's March 25, 2019, recognition of Israel's sovereignty over the Golan Heights is an example of a qualifying action.
Statement of intents, or announcements of planned recognition will not qualify.
The resolution source for this market will be the U.S. Government, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Donald Trump's March 25, 2019, recognition of Israel's sovereignty over the Golan Heights is an example of a qualifying action.
Statement of intents, or announcements of planned recognition will not qualify.
The resolution source for this market will be the U.S. Government, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
マーケット開始日： Nov 5, 2025, 12:50 PM ET
音量
$73,993終了日
2026/12/31マーケット開始日
Nov 5, 2025, 12:50 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the U.S. government formally recognizes Russian sovereignty over the majority of the Crimean peninsula by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Donald Trump's March 25, 2019, recognition of Israel's sovereignty over the Golan Heights is an example of a qualifying action.
Statement of intents, or announcements of planned recognition will not qualify.
The resolution source for this market will be the U.S. Government, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Bipartisan congressional legislation prohibiting formal U.S. recognition of Russian sovereignty over Crimea, combined with sustained Ukrainian and European allied opposition, has anchored trader consensus against the outcome before the December 31, 2026 deadline. Early 2025 proposals floated during Trump administration peace efforts to include de jure acknowledgment in exchange for a ceasefire encountered immediate resistance over concerns about legitimizing territorial changes by force, leaving negotiations stalled amid continued hostilities. Longstanding U.S. policy of non-recognition, reinforced across administrations and backed by measures such as the Crimea Annexation Non-Recognition Act, further limits executive flexibility without broader congressional or allied support. A sudden comprehensive settlement incorporating such recognition remains a low-probability scenario that could still shift the implied probability before year-end.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the U.S. government formally recognizes Russian sovereignty over the majority of the Crimean peninsula by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Donald Trump's March 25, 2019, recognition of Israel's sovereignty over the Golan Heights is an example of a qualifying action.
Statement of intents, or announcements of planned recognition will not qualify.
The resolution source for this market will be the U.S. Government, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Donald Trump's March 25, 2019, recognition of Israel's sovereignty over the Golan Heights is an example of a qualifying action.
Statement of intents, or announcements of planned recognition will not qualify.
The resolution source for this market will be the U.S. Government, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
音量
$73,993終了日
2026/12/31マーケット開始日
Nov 5, 2025, 12:50 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Bipartisan congressional legislation prohibiting formal U.S. recognition of Russian sovereignty over Crimea, combined with sustained Ukrainian and European allied opposition, has anchored trader consensus against the outcome before the December 31, 2026 deadline. Early 2025 proposals floated during Trump administration peace efforts to include de jure acknowledgment in exchange for a ceasefire encountered immediate resistance over concerns about legitimizing territorial changes by force, leaving negotiations stalled amid continued hostilities. Longstanding U.S. policy of non-recognition, reinforced across administrations and backed by measures such as the Crimea Annexation Non-Recognition Act, further limits executive flexibility without broader congressional or allied support. A sudden comprehensive settlement incorporating such recognition remains a low-probability scenario that could still shift the implied probability before year-end.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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