Strong corporate earnings momentum, fueled by AI infrastructure spending and robust second-quarter results, underpins trader sentiment for the S&P 500 to close 2026 above 7,500, with the >8,000 outcome leading at 36%. The index trades near 7,720 in early September after rising roughly 12% year-to-date, supported by consensus EPS growth estimates near 23% for the year and analyst year-end targets clustered around 7,800–8,100. Recent solid nonfarm payrolls data and easing geopolitical tensions have bolstered risk appetite, though rising Treasury yields and inflation concerns introduce volatility. With only four months to resolution, upcoming economic releases and third-quarter earnings will likely drive further adjustments to these market-implied probabilities.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日8,000ドル超 39%
7,500～8,000ドル 23%
7,000～7,500ドル 22%
6,500〜7,000ドル 11%
$41,371 Vol.
$41,371 Vol.
2026/12/31
6,000ドル未満
6%
6,000～6,500ドル
6%
6,500〜7,000ドル
11%
7,000～7,500ドル
22%
7,500～8,000ドル
23%
8,000ドル超
39%
8,000ドル超 39%
7,500～8,000ドル 23%
7,000～7,500ドル 22%
6,500〜7,000ドル 11%
$41,371 Vol.
$41,371 Vol.
2026/12/31
6,000ドル未満
$21,017 Vol.
6%
6,000～6,500ドル
$2,365 Vol.
6%
6,500〜7,000ドル
$4,577 Vol.
11%
7,000～7,500ドル
$2,726 Vol.
22%
7,500～8,000ドル
$4,204 Vol.
23%
8,000ドル超
$6,482 Vol.
39%
This market will resolve according to the official closing price for S&P 500 (SPX) on the final trading day of December 2026.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the final trading day of the month is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the official closing price published for that shortened session will still be used for resolution.
If no official closing price is published for that session (for example, due to a trading halt into the close, system issue, delisting, or other disruption), the market will use the last valid on-exchange trade price of the regular session as the effective closing price.
The resolution source for this market is Yahoo Finance, specifically the S&P 500 (SPX) "Close" prices available at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5EGSPC/history, published under "Historical Prices."Strong corporate earnings momentum, fueled by AI infrastructure spending and robust second-quarter results, underpins trader sentiment for the S&P 500 to close 2026 above 7,500, with the >8,000 outcome leading at 36%. The index trades near 7,720 in early September after rising roughly 12% year-to-date, supported by consensus EPS growth estimates near 23% for the year and analyst year-end targets clustered around 7,800–8,100. Recent solid nonfarm payrolls data and easing geopolitical tensions have bolstered risk appetite, though rising Treasury yields and inflation concerns introduce volatility. With only four months to resolution, upcoming economic releases and third-quarter earnings will likely drive further adjustments to these market-implied probabilities.
This market will resolve according to the official closing price for S&P 500 (SPX) on the final trading day of December 2026.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the final trading day of the month is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the official closing price published for that shortened session will still be used for resolution.
If no official closing price is published for that session (for example, due to a trading halt into the close, system issue, delisting, or other disruption), the market will use the last valid on-exchange trade price of the regular session as the effective closing price.
The resolution source for this market is Yahoo Finance, specifically the S&P 500 (SPX) "Close" prices available at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5EGSPC/history, published under "Historical Prices."
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the final trading day of the month is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the official closing price published for that shortened session will still be used for resolution.
If no official closing price is published for that session (for example, due to a trading halt into the close, system issue, delisting, or other disruption), the market will use the last valid on-exchange trade price of the regular session as the effective closing price.
The resolution source for this market is Yahoo Finance, specifically the S&P 500 (SPX) "Close" prices available at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5EGSPC/history, published under "Historical Prices."
マーケット開始日： Jan 6, 2026, 9:22 PM ET
音量
$41,371終了日
2026/12/31マーケット開始日
Jan 6, 2026, 9:22 PM ETThis market will resolve according to the official closing price for S&P 500 (SPX) on the final trading day of December 2026.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the final trading day of the month is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the official closing price published for that shortened session will still be used for resolution.
If no official closing price is published for that session (for example, due to a trading halt into the close, system issue, delisting, or other disruption), the market will use the last valid on-exchange trade price of the regular session as the effective closing price.
The resolution source for this market is Yahoo Finance, specifically the S&P 500 (SPX) "Close" prices available at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5EGSPC/history, published under "Historical Prices."Strong corporate earnings momentum, fueled by AI infrastructure spending and robust second-quarter results, underpins trader sentiment for the S&P 500 to close 2026 above 7,500, with the >8,000 outcome leading at 36%. The index trades near 7,720 in early September after rising roughly 12% year-to-date, supported by consensus EPS growth estimates near 23% for the year and analyst year-end targets clustered around 7,800–8,100. Recent solid nonfarm payrolls data and easing geopolitical tensions have bolstered risk appetite, though rising Treasury yields and inflation concerns introduce volatility. With only four months to resolution, upcoming economic releases and third-quarter earnings will likely drive further adjustments to these market-implied probabilities.
This market will resolve according to the official closing price for S&P 500 (SPX) on the final trading day of December 2026.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the final trading day of the month is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the official closing price published for that shortened session will still be used for resolution.
If no official closing price is published for that session (for example, due to a trading halt into the close, system issue, delisting, or other disruption), the market will use the last valid on-exchange trade price of the regular session as the effective closing price.
The resolution source for this market is Yahoo Finance, specifically the S&P 500 (SPX) "Close" prices available at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5EGSPC/history, published under "Historical Prices."
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the final trading day of the month is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the official closing price published for that shortened session will still be used for resolution.
If no official closing price is published for that session (for example, due to a trading halt into the close, system issue, delisting, or other disruption), the market will use the last valid on-exchange trade price of the regular session as the effective closing price.
The resolution source for this market is Yahoo Finance, specifically the S&P 500 (SPX) "Close" prices available at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5EGSPC/history, published under "Historical Prices."
音量
$41,371終了日
2026/12/31マーケット開始日
Jan 6, 2026, 9:22 PM ETStrong corporate earnings momentum, fueled by AI infrastructure spending and robust second-quarter results, underpins trader sentiment for the S&P 500 to close 2026 above 7,500, with the >8,000 outcome leading at 36%. The index trades near 7,720 in early September after rising roughly 12% year-to-date, supported by consensus EPS growth estimates near 23% for the year and analyst year-end targets clustered around 7,800–8,100. Recent solid nonfarm payrolls data and easing geopolitical tensions have bolstered risk appetite, though rising Treasury yields and inflation concerns introduce volatility. With only four months to resolution, upcoming economic releases and third-quarter earnings will likely drive further adjustments to these market-implied probabilities.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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