Kim Jong Un maintains a firm grip on power through recent reappointments as Workers’ Party General Secretary and State Affairs Commission president, alongside public inspections of nuclear and missile sites and elite reshuffles that have marginalized potential rivals. North Korea’s opaque, centralized system and absence of verified reports on incapacitation or organized internal challenges sustain trader consensus that removal by year-end remains unlikely. The short timeline to December 31, 2026, further limits windows for major shifts. An abrupt health crisis, sudden elite-level upheaval, or unforeseen external shock could theoretically alter the outlook, though such developments lack supporting indicators in recent months and would face significant structural barriers within the regime’s command structure.