The 10-year Treasury yield, recently trading near 4.78% as of September 4, 2026, after peaking at 4.79%, reflects elevated term premiums driven by heavy fiscal supply, persistent inflation risks, and robust corporate borrowing tied to AI infrastructure. Key near-term catalysts include the September 10-11 releases of August PPI and CPI, followed by the September 15-16 FOMC meeting and updated dot plot, which will clarify the Federal Reserve’s path for the 3.50-3.75% federal funds target amid resilient growth and sticky price pressures. Market-implied odds price limited near-term easing, with yields sensitive to any hotter-than-expected inflation prints or hawkish signals that could reinforce higher-for-longer expectations and widen the gap versus short-term rates.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日新規
2026/09/30
5.10%
10%
5.05％
50%
5.00%
50%
4.97%
50%
4.94%
50%
4.91%
50%
4.88%
50%
4.85％
50%
4.82％
63%
$58 Vol.
5.10%
$58 Vol.
10%
5.05％
$0 Vol.
50%
5.00%
$0 Vol.
50%
4.97%
$0 Vol.
50%
4.94%
$0 Vol.
50%
4.91%
$0 Vol.
50%
4.88%
$0 Vol.
50%
4.85％
$0 Vol.
50%
4.82％
$0 Vol.
63%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Treasury 10-year yield reaches or is higher than the listed value for any date between September 3, 2026 and September 30, 2026. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve as soon as the Treasury 10-year yield reaches or is higher than the listed value, or once data is available for September 30, 2026. If no qualifying value is published and data is not available for September 30, 2026 by October 14, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specifically the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "10 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2026).The 10-year Treasury yield, recently trading near 4.78% as of September 4, 2026, after peaking at 4.79%, reflects elevated term premiums driven by heavy fiscal supply, persistent inflation risks, and robust corporate borrowing tied to AI infrastructure. Key near-term catalysts include the September 10-11 releases of August PPI and CPI, followed by the September 15-16 FOMC meeting and updated dot plot, which will clarify the Federal Reserve’s path for the 3.50-3.75% federal funds target amid resilient growth and sticky price pressures. Market-implied odds price limited near-term easing, with yields sensitive to any hotter-than-expected inflation prints or hawkish signals that could reinforce higher-for-longer expectations and widen the gap versus short-term rates.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Treasury 10-year yield reaches or is higher than the listed value for any date between September 3, 2026 and September 30, 2026. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve as soon as the Treasury 10-year yield reaches or is higher than the listed value, or once data is available for September 30, 2026. If no qualifying value is published and data is not available for September 30, 2026 by October 14, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specifically the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "10 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2026).
This market will resolve as soon as the Treasury 10-year yield reaches or is higher than the listed value, or once data is available for September 30, 2026. If no qualifying value is published and data is not available for September 30, 2026 by October 14, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specifically the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "10 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2026).
マーケット開始日： Sep 2, 2026, 9:05 PM ET
音量
$58終了日
2026/09/30マーケット開始日
Sep 2, 2026, 9:05 PM ETリゾルバー
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Treasury 10-year yield reaches or is higher than the listed value for any date between September 3, 2026 and September 30, 2026. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve as soon as the Treasury 10-year yield reaches or is higher than the listed value, or once data is available for September 30, 2026. If no qualifying value is published and data is not available for September 30, 2026 by October 14, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specifically the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "10 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2026).The 10-year Treasury yield, recently trading near 4.78% as of September 4, 2026, after peaking at 4.79%, reflects elevated term premiums driven by heavy fiscal supply, persistent inflation risks, and robust corporate borrowing tied to AI infrastructure. Key near-term catalysts include the September 10-11 releases of August PPI and CPI, followed by the September 15-16 FOMC meeting and updated dot plot, which will clarify the Federal Reserve’s path for the 3.50-3.75% federal funds target amid resilient growth and sticky price pressures. Market-implied odds price limited near-term easing, with yields sensitive to any hotter-than-expected inflation prints or hawkish signals that could reinforce higher-for-longer expectations and widen the gap versus short-term rates.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Treasury 10-year yield reaches or is higher than the listed value for any date between September 3, 2026 and September 30, 2026. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve as soon as the Treasury 10-year yield reaches or is higher than the listed value, or once data is available for September 30, 2026. If no qualifying value is published and data is not available for September 30, 2026 by October 14, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specifically the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "10 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2026).
This market will resolve as soon as the Treasury 10-year yield reaches or is higher than the listed value, or once data is available for September 30, 2026. If no qualifying value is published and data is not available for September 30, 2026 by October 14, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specifically the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "10 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2026).
音量
$58終了日
2026/09/30マーケット開始日
Sep 2, 2026, 9:05 PM ETリゾルバー
0x65070BE91...The 10-year Treasury yield, recently trading near 4.78% as of September 4, 2026, after peaking at 4.79%, reflects elevated term premiums driven by heavy fiscal supply, persistent inflation risks, and robust corporate borrowing tied to AI infrastructure. Key near-term catalysts include the September 10-11 releases of August PPI and CPI, followed by the September 15-16 FOMC meeting and updated dot plot, which will clarify the Federal Reserve’s path for the 3.50-3.75% federal funds target amid resilient growth and sticky price pressures. Market-implied odds price limited near-term easing, with yields sensitive to any hotter-than-expected inflation prints or hawkish signals that could reinforce higher-for-longer expectations and widen the gap versus short-term rates.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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