**Short-term forecasts for Warsaw on August 12, 2026, converge on a maximum temperature of 23–25 °C under sunny or mostly sunny conditions with light northwesterly winds.** Official guidance from the BBC and similar agencies highlights clearing skies after August 11’s cooler, breezier pattern, allowing stronger solar heating while moderate winds limit extreme warming. This places the peak squarely in the narrow 23–24 °C band that dominates market pricing (37.5 % and 35.0 % respectively). The 25 °C outcome (14.5 %) remains plausible if insolation peaks higher than expected or winds slacken further, but ensemble consensus keeps it secondary. Lower probabilities for 22 °C or below reflect the reduced likelihood of persistent cloud or stronger advection once high pressure builds. Temperature resolution hinges on precise timing of any residual cloud and local wind variability, which short-range models still refine within the final 48 hours.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日8月12日のワルシャワの最高気温は？
8月12日のワルシャワの最高気温は？
23°C 38%
24°C 35%
25°C 15%
22°C 11%
新規
新規
2026/08/12
18°C or below
<1%
19°C
<1%
20°C
1%
21°C
3%
22°C
11%
23°C
38%
24°C
35%
25°C
15%
26°C
4%
27°C
2%
28°C or higher
<1%
23°C 38%
24°C 35%
25°C 15%
22°C 11%
新規
新規
2026/08/12
18°C or below
$28 Vol.
<1%
19°C
$93 Vol.
<1%
20°C
$89 Vol.
1%
21°C
$4 Vol.
3%
22°C
$132 Vol.
11%
23°C
$185 Vol.
38%
24°C
$53 Vol.
35%
25°C
$159 Vol.
15%
26°C
$343 Vol.
4%
27°C
$17 Vol.
2%
28°C or higher
$61 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 12 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Short-term forecasts for Warsaw on August 12, 2026, converge on a maximum temperature of 23–25 °C under sunny or mostly sunny conditions with light northwesterly winds.**
Official guidance from the BBC and similar agencies highlights clearing skies after August 11’s cooler, breezier pattern, allowing stronger solar heating while moderate winds limit extreme warming. This places the peak squarely in the narrow 23–24 °C band that dominates market pricing (37.5 % and 35.0 % respectively).
The 25 °C outcome (14.5 %) remains plausible if insolation peaks higher than expected or winds slacken further, but ensemble consensus keeps it secondary. Lower probabilities for 22 °C or below reflect the reduced likelihood of persistent cloud or stronger advection once high pressure builds. Temperature resolution hinges on precise timing of any residual cloud and local wind variability, which short-range models still refine within the final 48 hours.
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 12 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 12 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
マーケット開始日： Aug 10, 2026, 12:05 AM ET
音量
$1,164終了日
2026/08/12マーケット開始日
Aug 10, 2026, 12:05 AM ETThis market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 12 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Short-term forecasts for Warsaw on August 12, 2026, converge on a maximum temperature of 23–25 °C under sunny or mostly sunny conditions with light northwesterly winds.**
Official guidance from the BBC and similar agencies highlights clearing skies after August 11’s cooler, breezier pattern, allowing stronger solar heating while moderate winds limit extreme warming. This places the peak squarely in the narrow 23–24 °C band that dominates market pricing (37.5 % and 35.0 % respectively).
The 25 °C outcome (14.5 %) remains plausible if insolation peaks higher than expected or winds slacken further, but ensemble consensus keeps it secondary. Lower probabilities for 22 °C or below reflect the reduced likelihood of persistent cloud or stronger advection once high pressure builds. Temperature resolution hinges on precise timing of any residual cloud and local wind variability, which short-range models still refine within the final 48 hours.
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 12 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 12 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
音量
$1,164終了日
2026/08/12マーケット開始日
Aug 10, 2026, 12:05 AM ET**Short-term forecasts for Warsaw on August 12, 2026, converge on a maximum temperature of 23–25 °C under sunny or mostly sunny conditions with light northwesterly winds.** Official guidance from the BBC and similar agencies highlights clearing skies after August 11’s cooler, breezier pattern, allowing stronger solar heating while moderate winds limit extreme warming. This places the peak squarely in the narrow 23–24 °C band that dominates market pricing (37.5 % and 35.0 % respectively). The 25 °C outcome (14.5 %) remains plausible if insolation peaks higher than expected or winds slacken further, but ensemble consensus keeps it secondary. Lower probabilities for 22 °C or below reflect the reduced likelihood of persistent cloud or stronger advection once high pressure builds. Temperature resolution hinges on precise timing of any residual cloud and local wind variability, which short-range models still refine within the final 48 hours.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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