Luke Bronin leads trader sentiment in the CT-01 Democratic primary following his narrow upset victory over 14-term incumbent John Larson at the May 2026 party convention, where Bronin secured the endorsement on a second ballot. That outcome shifted momentum toward the former Hartford mayor, who has emphasized generational change in the safely Democratic district. A subsequent May poll showed Bronin ahead by eight points among likely primary voters, though a sizable share remained undecided. Jillian Gilchrest cleared the convention threshold to reach the August 11 ballot with support from some Larson allies seeking a three-way contest, while Ruth Fortune and Mark Stewart Greenstein trail far behind in both polling and delegate support. The market's pricing reflects the post-convention realignment and limited time remaining before primary day.