The Brazilian Senate’s consistent shielding of STF justices, combined with procedural barriers and the absence of any active impeachment proceedings with broad support, underpins the strong trader consensus against removal before 2027. Historical precedent shows no successful justice impeachments despite past surges in formal requests, while the court itself has advanced cases to tighten its own removal rules ahead of potential post-2026 Senate shifts. Limited time remains before the resolution window closes, with current congressional majorities favoring institutional stability over confrontation. Scenarios that could still alter odds include a decisive rightward Senate majority after the 2026 elections enabling new proceedings, though confirmation timelines, two-thirds vote thresholds, and legal challenges would likely extend beyond early 2027.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日はい
3% 確率
$83,546 Vol.
$83,546 Vol.
2026/12/30
はい
3% 確率
$83,546 Vol.
$83,546 Vol.
2026/12/30
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any justice of the Brazil Supreme Federal Court (STF) is permanently removed from the court as a result of impeachment or a trial for a crime of responsibility by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Justices leaving the court due to term limits, voluntary resignation, or any other reason not resulting from impeachment or a trial for a crime of responsibility will not count.
Impeachments, trials for crimes of responsibility, suspensions, or other procedural measures will not alone suffice to resolve this market if they do not result in the permanent removal of a justice from the Brazil Supreme Federal Court.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of Brazil; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.The Brazilian Senate’s consistent shielding of STF justices, combined with procedural barriers and the absence of any active impeachment proceedings with broad support, underpins the strong trader consensus against removal before 2027. Historical precedent shows no successful justice impeachments despite past surges in formal requests, while the court itself has advanced cases to tighten its own removal rules ahead of potential post-2026 Senate shifts. Limited time remains before the resolution window closes, with current congressional majorities favoring institutional stability over confrontation. Scenarios that could still alter odds include a decisive rightward Senate majority after the 2026 elections enabling new proceedings, though confirmation timelines, two-thirds vote thresholds, and legal challenges would likely extend beyond early 2027.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any justice of the Brazil Supreme Federal Court (STF) is permanently removed from the court as a result of impeachment or a trial for a crime of responsibility by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Justices leaving the court due to term limits, voluntary resignation, or any other reason not resulting from impeachment or a trial for a crime of responsibility will not count.
Impeachments, trials for crimes of responsibility, suspensions, or other procedural measures will not alone suffice to resolve this market if they do not result in the permanent removal of a justice from the Brazil Supreme Federal Court.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of Brazil; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Justices leaving the court due to term limits, voluntary resignation, or any other reason not resulting from impeachment or a trial for a crime of responsibility will not count.
Impeachments, trials for crimes of responsibility, suspensions, or other procedural measures will not alone suffice to resolve this market if they do not result in the permanent removal of a justice from the Brazil Supreme Federal Court.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of Brazil; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
マーケット開始日： Jan 8, 2026, 1:14 PM ET
音量
$83,546終了日
2026/12/31マーケット開始日
Jan 8, 2026, 1:14 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if any justice of the Brazil Supreme Federal Court (STF) is permanently removed from the court as a result of impeachment or a trial for a crime of responsibility by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Justices leaving the court due to term limits, voluntary resignation, or any other reason not resulting from impeachment or a trial for a crime of responsibility will not count.
Impeachments, trials for crimes of responsibility, suspensions, or other procedural measures will not alone suffice to resolve this market if they do not result in the permanent removal of a justice from the Brazil Supreme Federal Court.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of Brazil; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.The Brazilian Senate’s consistent shielding of STF justices, combined with procedural barriers and the absence of any active impeachment proceedings with broad support, underpins the strong trader consensus against removal before 2027. Historical precedent shows no successful justice impeachments despite past surges in formal requests, while the court itself has advanced cases to tighten its own removal rules ahead of potential post-2026 Senate shifts. Limited time remains before the resolution window closes, with current congressional majorities favoring institutional stability over confrontation. Scenarios that could still alter odds include a decisive rightward Senate majority after the 2026 elections enabling new proceedings, though confirmation timelines, two-thirds vote thresholds, and legal challenges would likely extend beyond early 2027.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any justice of the Brazil Supreme Federal Court (STF) is permanently removed from the court as a result of impeachment or a trial for a crime of responsibility by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Justices leaving the court due to term limits, voluntary resignation, or any other reason not resulting from impeachment or a trial for a crime of responsibility will not count.
Impeachments, trials for crimes of responsibility, suspensions, or other procedural measures will not alone suffice to resolve this market if they do not result in the permanent removal of a justice from the Brazil Supreme Federal Court.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of Brazil; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Justices leaving the court due to term limits, voluntary resignation, or any other reason not resulting from impeachment or a trial for a crime of responsibility will not count.
Impeachments, trials for crimes of responsibility, suspensions, or other procedural measures will not alone suffice to resolve this market if they do not result in the permanent removal of a justice from the Brazil Supreme Federal Court.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of Brazil; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
音量
$83,546終了日
2026/12/31マーケット開始日
Jan 8, 2026, 1:14 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...The Brazilian Senate’s consistent shielding of STF justices, combined with procedural barriers and the absence of any active impeachment proceedings with broad support, underpins the strong trader consensus against removal before 2027. Historical precedent shows no successful justice impeachments despite past surges in formal requests, while the court itself has advanced cases to tighten its own removal rules ahead of potential post-2026 Senate shifts. Limited time remains before the resolution window closes, with current congressional majorities favoring institutional stability over confrontation. Scenarios that could still alter odds include a decisive rightward Senate majority after the 2026 elections enabling new proceedings, though confirmation timelines, two-thirds vote thresholds, and legal challenges would likely extend beyond early 2027.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
外部リンクに注意してください。
外部リンクに注意してください。
よくある質問