Current conditions in the Atlantic basin strongly support the market's 87.5% implied probability against a U.S. hurricane landfall this August. NOAA's August 6 seasonal update forecasts a below-normal year overall, with just 7-13 named storms, 2-6 hurricanes, and 0-2 major hurricanes expected through November. Only two weak tropical storms—Arthur and Bertha—have formed so far, with no active systems and hostile factors including Saharan dust and elevated wind shear suppressing development. The National Hurricane Center reports no tropical cyclones as of August 8 and little formation risk over the next seven days. While peak activity typically ramps up mid-month, the current observational data and model consensus indicate limited intensification potential before September. Traders appear to weigh these verified environmental barriers heavily against historical August landfall patterns.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · AggiornatoUn uragano arriverà negli Stati Uniti ad agosto?
Un uragano arriverà negli Stati Uniti ad agosto?
Sì
13% probabilità
NUOVO
NUOVO
1 set 2026
Sì
13% probabilità
NUOVO
NUOVO
1 set 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a hurricane makes landfall in the conterminous United States between August 1 and August 31, 2026, 11:59:59 PM ET, as reported in official National Hurricane Center advisories (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/) and post-storm Tropical Cyclone Reports (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/tcr/). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A landfall counts toward this total only if it occurs within this window; the time of the physical landfall governs, not the time any confirming advisory is issued.
A hurricane is a tropical cyclone with maximum sustained winds of 74 mph or greater (Category 1 or higher on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale), as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutsshws.php, and a hurricane landfall is said to occur when the hurricane's surface center intersects with the coastline, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml#LANDFALL. A storm must hold hurricane strength (Category 1 or higher on the Saffir-Simpson scale) at the moment its surface center intersects the coastline for that landfall to qualify.
This market may resolve based on the initial NHC advisory reporting a qualifying landfall regardless of any later advisory, retraction, best-track revision, or reanalysis that revises that storm's intensity downward at the time of landfall. However, if a subsequent advisory or correction identifies a qualifying landfall that was not reflected in initial reporting, that landfall will be added.Current conditions in the Atlantic basin strongly support the market's 87.5% implied probability against a U.S. hurricane landfall this August. NOAA's August 6 seasonal update forecasts a below-normal year overall, with just 7-13 named storms, 2-6 hurricanes, and 0-2 major hurricanes expected through November. Only two weak tropical storms—Arthur and Bertha—have formed so far, with no active systems and hostile factors including Saharan dust and elevated wind shear suppressing development. The National Hurricane Center reports no tropical cyclones as of August 8 and little formation risk over the next seven days. While peak activity typically ramps up mid-month, the current observational data and model consensus indicate limited intensification potential before September. Traders appear to weigh these verified environmental barriers heavily against historical August landfall patterns.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a hurricane makes landfall in the conterminous United States between August 1 and August 31, 2026, 11:59:59 PM ET, as reported in official National Hurricane Center advisories (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/) and post-storm Tropical Cyclone Reports (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/tcr/). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A landfall counts toward this total only if it occurs within this window; the time of the physical landfall governs, not the time any confirming advisory is issued.
A hurricane is a tropical cyclone with maximum sustained winds of 74 mph or greater (Category 1 or higher on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale), as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutsshws.php, and a hurricane landfall is said to occur when the hurricane's surface center intersects with the coastline, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml#LANDFALL. A storm must hold hurricane strength (Category 1 or higher on the Saffir-Simpson scale) at the moment its surface center intersects the coastline for that landfall to qualify.
This market may resolve based on the initial NHC advisory reporting a qualifying landfall regardless of any later advisory, retraction, best-track revision, or reanalysis that revises that storm's intensity downward at the time of landfall. However, if a subsequent advisory or correction identifies a qualifying landfall that was not reflected in initial reporting, that landfall will be added.
A hurricane is a tropical cyclone with maximum sustained winds of 74 mph or greater (Category 1 or higher on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale), as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutsshws.php, and a hurricane landfall is said to occur when the hurricane's surface center intersects with the coastline, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml#LANDFALL. A storm must hold hurricane strength (Category 1 or higher on the Saffir-Simpson scale) at the moment its surface center intersects the coastline for that landfall to qualify.
This market may resolve based on the initial NHC advisory reporting a qualifying landfall regardless of any later advisory, retraction, best-track revision, or reanalysis that revises that storm's intensity downward at the time of landfall. However, if a subsequent advisory or correction identifies a qualifying landfall that was not reflected in initial reporting, that landfall will be added.
Mercato aperto: Jul 30, 2026, 2:36 PM ET
Volume
$948Data di fine
1 set 2026Mercato aperto
Jul 30, 2026, 2:36 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if a hurricane makes landfall in the conterminous United States between August 1 and August 31, 2026, 11:59:59 PM ET, as reported in official National Hurricane Center advisories (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/) and post-storm Tropical Cyclone Reports (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/tcr/). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A landfall counts toward this total only if it occurs within this window; the time of the physical landfall governs, not the time any confirming advisory is issued.
A hurricane is a tropical cyclone with maximum sustained winds of 74 mph or greater (Category 1 or higher on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale), as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutsshws.php, and a hurricane landfall is said to occur when the hurricane's surface center intersects with the coastline, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml#LANDFALL. A storm must hold hurricane strength (Category 1 or higher on the Saffir-Simpson scale) at the moment its surface center intersects the coastline for that landfall to qualify.
This market may resolve based on the initial NHC advisory reporting a qualifying landfall regardless of any later advisory, retraction, best-track revision, or reanalysis that revises that storm's intensity downward at the time of landfall. However, if a subsequent advisory or correction identifies a qualifying landfall that was not reflected in initial reporting, that landfall will be added.Current conditions in the Atlantic basin strongly support the market's 87.5% implied probability against a U.S. hurricane landfall this August. NOAA's August 6 seasonal update forecasts a below-normal year overall, with just 7-13 named storms, 2-6 hurricanes, and 0-2 major hurricanes expected through November. Only two weak tropical storms—Arthur and Bertha—have formed so far, with no active systems and hostile factors including Saharan dust and elevated wind shear suppressing development. The National Hurricane Center reports no tropical cyclones as of August 8 and little formation risk over the next seven days. While peak activity typically ramps up mid-month, the current observational data and model consensus indicate limited intensification potential before September. Traders appear to weigh these verified environmental barriers heavily against historical August landfall patterns.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a hurricane makes landfall in the conterminous United States between August 1 and August 31, 2026, 11:59:59 PM ET, as reported in official National Hurricane Center advisories (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/) and post-storm Tropical Cyclone Reports (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/tcr/). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A landfall counts toward this total only if it occurs within this window; the time of the physical landfall governs, not the time any confirming advisory is issued.
A hurricane is a tropical cyclone with maximum sustained winds of 74 mph or greater (Category 1 or higher on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale), as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutsshws.php, and a hurricane landfall is said to occur when the hurricane's surface center intersects with the coastline, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml#LANDFALL. A storm must hold hurricane strength (Category 1 or higher on the Saffir-Simpson scale) at the moment its surface center intersects the coastline for that landfall to qualify.
This market may resolve based on the initial NHC advisory reporting a qualifying landfall regardless of any later advisory, retraction, best-track revision, or reanalysis that revises that storm's intensity downward at the time of landfall. However, if a subsequent advisory or correction identifies a qualifying landfall that was not reflected in initial reporting, that landfall will be added.
A hurricane is a tropical cyclone with maximum sustained winds of 74 mph or greater (Category 1 or higher on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale), as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutsshws.php, and a hurricane landfall is said to occur when the hurricane's surface center intersects with the coastline, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml#LANDFALL. A storm must hold hurricane strength (Category 1 or higher on the Saffir-Simpson scale) at the moment its surface center intersects the coastline for that landfall to qualify.
This market may resolve based on the initial NHC advisory reporting a qualifying landfall regardless of any later advisory, retraction, best-track revision, or reanalysis that revises that storm's intensity downward at the time of landfall. However, if a subsequent advisory or correction identifies a qualifying landfall that was not reflected in initial reporting, that landfall will be added.
Volume
$948Data di fine
1 set 2026Mercato aperto
Jul 30, 2026, 2:36 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Current conditions in the Atlantic basin strongly support the market's 87.5% implied probability against a U.S. hurricane landfall this August. NOAA's August 6 seasonal update forecasts a below-normal year overall, with just 7-13 named storms, 2-6 hurricanes, and 0-2 major hurricanes expected through November. Only two weak tropical storms—Arthur and Bertha—have formed so far, with no active systems and hostile factors including Saharan dust and elevated wind shear suppressing development. The National Hurricane Center reports no tropical cyclones as of August 8 and little formation risk over the next seven days. While peak activity typically ramps up mid-month, the current observational data and model consensus indicate limited intensification potential before September. Traders appear to weigh these verified environmental barriers heavily against historical August landfall patterns.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato
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