Recent Victorian polls show a tight three-way contest on primary votes among Labor, the Liberal-National Coalition, and One Nation, each hovering near 25 percent ahead of the November 28 election, with the Greens further back. Leadership transitions—Ben Carroll replacing Jacinta Allan as Labor premier in late July and Warren Pickering taking over One Nation in early August—have coincided with sustained voter concern over cost-of-living pressures and government fatigue after 12 years in office. These factors have kept One Nation competitive for third while preventing any single major from consolidating a clear lead, leaving room for preference flows, turnout shifts, or late campaign events to determine final order. Minor parties remain distant in current surveys.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · AggiornatoElezioni parlamentari in Victoria: 3° posto
Elezioni parlamentari in Victoria: 3° posto
One Nation 57%
Greens 32.2%
Labor 7.2%
Liberal–National <1%
$15,285 Vol.
$15,285 Vol.
28 nov 2026
One Nation
57%
Greens
25%
Labor
7%
Liberal–National
<1%
Legalise Cannabis
<1%
Animal Justice
<1%
Libertarian
<1%
Shooters, Fishers, Farmers
<1%
One Nation 57%
Greens 32.2%
Labor 7.2%
Liberal–National <1%
$15,285 Vol.
$15,285 Vol.
28 nov 2026
One Nation
$4,134 Vol.
57%
Greens
$158 Vol.
25%
Labor
$6,346 Vol.
7%
Liberal–National
$1,073 Vol.
<1%
Legalise Cannabis
$1,123 Vol.
<1%
Animal Justice
$822 Vol.
<1%
Libertarian
$717 Vol.
<1%
Shooters, Fishers, Farmers
$914 Vol.
<1%
The 2026 Victorian state election is currently scheduled to be held on 28 November 2026 to elect members of the 61st Parliament of Victoria.
This market will resolve to "Yes" according to which party or coalition wins the third-most seats in the Legislative Assembly (Victoria's lower house) as a result of the next Victorian state election.
If the results of this election are not known definitively by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
Liberal–National refers to the Liberal–National Coalition. Liberal–National will include all seats won by both the Liberal Party and the Nationals, regardless of their parliamentary coalition behaviour, and its first-preference vote total will include the votes received by both parties.
Parties and coalitions will be primarily ranked by the number of seats won in the specified election. If two or more are tied on seats, ties will be broken by the total number of valid first-preference votes received, with higher vote totals ranking higher. If they remain tied, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the listed names. This market will resolve to the party or coalition that occupies the third-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Victorian government, specifically the Victorian Electoral Commission (VEC) (https://www.vec.vic.gov.au/).Recent Victorian polls show a tight three-way contest on primary votes among Labor, the Liberal-National Coalition, and One Nation, each hovering near 25 percent ahead of the November 28 election, with the Greens further back. Leadership transitions—Ben Carroll replacing Jacinta Allan as Labor premier in late July and Warren Pickering taking over One Nation in early August—have coincided with sustained voter concern over cost-of-living pressures and government fatigue after 12 years in office. These factors have kept One Nation competitive for third while preventing any single major from consolidating a clear lead, leaving room for preference flows, turnout shifts, or late campaign events to determine final order. Minor parties remain distant in current surveys.
The 2026 Victorian state election is currently scheduled to be held on 28 November 2026 to elect members of the 61st Parliament of Victoria.
This market will resolve to "Yes" according to which party or coalition wins the third-most seats in the Legislative Assembly (Victoria's lower house) as a result of the next Victorian state election.
If the results of this election are not known definitively by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
Liberal–National refers to the Liberal–National Coalition. Liberal–National will include all seats won by both the Liberal Party and the Nationals, regardless of their parliamentary coalition behaviour, and its first-preference vote total will include the votes received by both parties.
Parties and coalitions will be primarily ranked by the number of seats won in the specified election. If two or more are tied on seats, ties will be broken by the total number of valid first-preference votes received, with higher vote totals ranking higher. If they remain tied, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the listed names. This market will resolve to the party or coalition that occupies the third-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Victorian government, specifically the Victorian Electoral Commission (VEC) (https://www.vec.vic.gov.au/).
This market will resolve to "Yes" according to which party or coalition wins the third-most seats in the Legislative Assembly (Victoria's lower house) as a result of the next Victorian state election.
If the results of this election are not known definitively by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
Liberal–National refers to the Liberal–National Coalition. Liberal–National will include all seats won by both the Liberal Party and the Nationals, regardless of their parliamentary coalition behaviour, and its first-preference vote total will include the votes received by both parties.
Parties and coalitions will be primarily ranked by the number of seats won in the specified election. If two or more are tied on seats, ties will be broken by the total number of valid first-preference votes received, with higher vote totals ranking higher. If they remain tied, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the listed names. This market will resolve to the party or coalition that occupies the third-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Victorian government, specifically the Victorian Electoral Commission (VEC) (https://www.vec.vic.gov.au/).
Mercato aperto: Aug 20, 2026, 5:36 AM ET
Volume
$15,285Data di fine
28 nov 2026Mercato aperto
Aug 20, 2026, 5:36 AM ETRisolutore
0x69c47De9D...The 2026 Victorian state election is currently scheduled to be held on 28 November 2026 to elect members of the 61st Parliament of Victoria.
This market will resolve to "Yes" according to which party or coalition wins the third-most seats in the Legislative Assembly (Victoria's lower house) as a result of the next Victorian state election.
If the results of this election are not known definitively by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
Liberal–National refers to the Liberal–National Coalition. Liberal–National will include all seats won by both the Liberal Party and the Nationals, regardless of their parliamentary coalition behaviour, and its first-preference vote total will include the votes received by both parties.
Parties and coalitions will be primarily ranked by the number of seats won in the specified election. If two or more are tied on seats, ties will be broken by the total number of valid first-preference votes received, with higher vote totals ranking higher. If they remain tied, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the listed names. This market will resolve to the party or coalition that occupies the third-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Victorian government, specifically the Victorian Electoral Commission (VEC) (https://www.vec.vic.gov.au/).Recent Victorian polls show a tight three-way contest on primary votes among Labor, the Liberal-National Coalition, and One Nation, each hovering near 25 percent ahead of the November 28 election, with the Greens further back. Leadership transitions—Ben Carroll replacing Jacinta Allan as Labor premier in late July and Warren Pickering taking over One Nation in early August—have coincided with sustained voter concern over cost-of-living pressures and government fatigue after 12 years in office. These factors have kept One Nation competitive for third while preventing any single major from consolidating a clear lead, leaving room for preference flows, turnout shifts, or late campaign events to determine final order. Minor parties remain distant in current surveys.
The 2026 Victorian state election is currently scheduled to be held on 28 November 2026 to elect members of the 61st Parliament of Victoria.
This market will resolve to "Yes" according to which party or coalition wins the third-most seats in the Legislative Assembly (Victoria's lower house) as a result of the next Victorian state election.
If the results of this election are not known definitively by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
Liberal–National refers to the Liberal–National Coalition. Liberal–National will include all seats won by both the Liberal Party and the Nationals, regardless of their parliamentary coalition behaviour, and its first-preference vote total will include the votes received by both parties.
Parties and coalitions will be primarily ranked by the number of seats won in the specified election. If two or more are tied on seats, ties will be broken by the total number of valid first-preference votes received, with higher vote totals ranking higher. If they remain tied, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the listed names. This market will resolve to the party or coalition that occupies the third-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Victorian government, specifically the Victorian Electoral Commission (VEC) (https://www.vec.vic.gov.au/).
This market will resolve to "Yes" according to which party or coalition wins the third-most seats in the Legislative Assembly (Victoria's lower house) as a result of the next Victorian state election.
If the results of this election are not known definitively by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
Liberal–National refers to the Liberal–National Coalition. Liberal–National will include all seats won by both the Liberal Party and the Nationals, regardless of their parliamentary coalition behaviour, and its first-preference vote total will include the votes received by both parties.
Parties and coalitions will be primarily ranked by the number of seats won in the specified election. If two or more are tied on seats, ties will be broken by the total number of valid first-preference votes received, with higher vote totals ranking higher. If they remain tied, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the listed names. This market will resolve to the party or coalition that occupies the third-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Victorian government, specifically the Victorian Electoral Commission (VEC) (https://www.vec.vic.gov.au/).
Volume
$15,285Data di fine
28 nov 2026Mercato aperto
Aug 20, 2026, 5:36 AM ETRisolutore
0x69c47De9D...Recent Victorian polls show a tight three-way contest on primary votes among Labor, the Liberal-National Coalition, and One Nation, each hovering near 25 percent ahead of the November 28 election, with the Greens further back. Leadership transitions—Ben Carroll replacing Jacinta Allan as Labor premier in late July and Warren Pickering taking over One Nation in early August—have coincided with sustained voter concern over cost-of-living pressures and government fatigue after 12 years in office. These factors have kept One Nation competitive for third while preventing any single major from consolidating a clear lead, leaving room for preference flows, turnout shifts, or late campaign events to determine final order. Minor parties remain distant in current surveys.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato
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