Jess Wilson leads trader pricing for Victoria's next premier at 64.5 percent ahead of the November 28, 2026 state election, reflecting consistent Coalition two-party-preferred leads in recent polls such as DemosAU's 55-45 margin and her edge as preferred premier. Wilson, who assumed Liberal leadership in November 2025, has maintained momentum through justice and bail reforms, a 10-year economic plan, housing initiatives, and a first-100-days focus on policing and cost-of-living pressures. Ben Carroll sits at 20.5 percent after succeeding Jacinta Allan in a late-July 2026 Labor leadership transition driven by caucus pressure, though Labor's primary vote remains in the mid-20s amid a three-way contest featuring One Nation near 22-24 percent. Lower probabilities for Allan, Warren Pickering, and other Labor figures align with polling trends and the structural headwinds facing the incumbent government.