**High primary engagement and Michigan’s expanded early voting and mail options from 2022 reforms have lifted expectations for November 2026 turnout in the open Senate race between Abdul El-Sayed and Mike Rogers.** Record Democratic primary participation exceeding 1.5 million ballots signals sustained voter interest in a contest viewed as pivotal for Senate control, while historical midterm totals (roughly 4.3–4.5 million in 2018 and 2022) contrast with 2024’s presidential record above 5.7 million. Traders price the outcome tightly around 5.2–5.6 million because the race’s competitiveness, population growth, and habit-forming effects from recent high-turnout cycles could push participation above typical off-year levels, yet the absence of a presidential contest and variable enthusiasm among key demographics like seniors introduce uncertainty that prevents any single range from dominating.