Mexico’s Q3 2026 GDP growth (year-over-year) remains closely contested in trader pricing, with the 1.5–2.0% and 2.0–2.5% bins holding nearly equal shares amid subdued momentum. The primary driver is persistent weakness in domestic demand and private fixed investment, following a 0.6% Q1 contraction and only a 1.4% QoQ rebound in Q2, as fiscal consolidation, USMCA review uncertainty, and elevated policy rates at 6.5% weigh on consumption and capex. Resilient exports—supported by nearshoring and USMCA integration—provide a partial offset, while August inflation at 3.26% and a declining leading economic index signal limited near-term acceleration. Key swing factors include September industrial production, retail sales, and any shifts in U.S. demand ahead of the October 30 release.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato1.5-2.0% 33%
2.0-2.5% 32%
2.5-3.0% 25%
1.0-1.5% 5.3%
$25,623 Vol.
$25,623 Vol.
30 ott 2026
<0.5%
1%
0.5-1.0%
1%
1.0-1.5%
5%
1.5-2.0%
33%
2.0-2.5%
32%
2.5-3.0%
23%
3.0-3.5%
2%
3.5%+
5%
1.5-2.0% 33%
2.0-2.5% 32%
2.5-3.0% 25%
1.0-1.5% 5.3%
$25,623 Vol.
$25,623 Vol.
30 ott 2026
<0.5%
$466 Vol.
1%
0.5-1.0%
$354 Vol.
1%
1.0-1.5%
$3,418 Vol.
5%
1.5-2.0%
$8,466 Vol.
33%
2.0-2.5%
$10,915 Vol.
32%
2.5-3.0%
$1,133 Vol.
23%
3.0-3.5%
$433 Vol.
2%
3.5%+
$438 Vol.
5%
This market will resolve according to Mexico's Y/Y Growth Rate of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in the "Timely Estimate of Quarterly GDP" release for Q3 of 2026, scheduled for release on October 30, 2026.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://en.www.inegi.org.mx/app/saladeprensa/
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.Mexico’s Q3 2026 GDP growth (year-over-year) remains closely contested in trader pricing, with the 1.5–2.0% and 2.0–2.5% bins holding nearly equal shares amid subdued momentum. The primary driver is persistent weakness in domestic demand and private fixed investment, following a 0.6% Q1 contraction and only a 1.4% QoQ rebound in Q2, as fiscal consolidation, USMCA review uncertainty, and elevated policy rates at 6.5% weigh on consumption and capex. Resilient exports—supported by nearshoring and USMCA integration—provide a partial offset, while August inflation at 3.26% and a declining leading economic index signal limited near-term acceleration. Key swing factors include September industrial production, retail sales, and any shifts in U.S. demand ahead of the October 30 release.
This market will resolve according to Mexico's Y/Y Growth Rate of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in the "Timely Estimate of Quarterly GDP" release for Q3 of 2026, scheduled for release on October 30, 2026.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://en.www.inegi.org.mx/app/saladeprensa/
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://en.www.inegi.org.mx/app/saladeprensa/
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Mercato aperto: Jul 31, 2026, 7:29 PM ET
Volume
$25,623Data di fine
30 ott 2026Mercato aperto
Jul 31, 2026, 7:29 PM ETRisolutore
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to Mexico's Y/Y Growth Rate of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in the "Timely Estimate of Quarterly GDP" release for Q3 of 2026, scheduled for release on October 30, 2026.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://en.www.inegi.org.mx/app/saladeprensa/
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.Mexico’s Q3 2026 GDP growth (year-over-year) remains closely contested in trader pricing, with the 1.5–2.0% and 2.0–2.5% bins holding nearly equal shares amid subdued momentum. The primary driver is persistent weakness in domestic demand and private fixed investment, following a 0.6% Q1 contraction and only a 1.4% QoQ rebound in Q2, as fiscal consolidation, USMCA review uncertainty, and elevated policy rates at 6.5% weigh on consumption and capex. Resilient exports—supported by nearshoring and USMCA integration—provide a partial offset, while August inflation at 3.26% and a declining leading economic index signal limited near-term acceleration. Key swing factors include September industrial production, retail sales, and any shifts in U.S. demand ahead of the October 30 release.
This market will resolve according to Mexico's Y/Y Growth Rate of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in the "Timely Estimate of Quarterly GDP" release for Q3 of 2026, scheduled for release on October 30, 2026.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://en.www.inegi.org.mx/app/saladeprensa/
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://en.www.inegi.org.mx/app/saladeprensa/
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volume
$25,623Data di fine
30 ott 2026Mercato aperto
Jul 31, 2026, 7:29 PM ETRisolutore
0x69c47De9D...Mexico’s Q3 2026 GDP growth (year-over-year) remains closely contested in trader pricing, with the 1.5–2.0% and 2.0–2.5% bins holding nearly equal shares amid subdued momentum. The primary driver is persistent weakness in domestic demand and private fixed investment, following a 0.6% Q1 contraction and only a 1.4% QoQ rebound in Q2, as fiscal consolidation, USMCA review uncertainty, and elevated policy rates at 6.5% weigh on consumption and capex. Resilient exports—supported by nearshoring and USMCA integration—provide a partial offset, while August inflation at 3.26% and a declining leading economic index signal limited near-term acceleration. Key swing factors include September industrial production, retail sales, and any shifts in U.S. demand ahead of the October 30 release.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato
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