Recent Q2 2026 GDP data showing a 0.5% QoQ expansion—below Q1’s 1.1% pace—has anchored trader expectations for continued deceleration in Q3 amid the Central Bank’s restrictive Selic stance near 13.75%. Elevated borrowing costs, high household indebtedness, and fading fiscal stimulus have weighed on domestic demand, with early indicators pointing to near-zero or negative sequential growth. Market-implied odds cluster around flat-to-mildly negative outcomes, reflecting uncertainty over the pace of cooling and any residual commodity or agricultural support, while full-year 2026 consensus forecasts have edged lower to the 1.7–1.9% range following the release.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato-0,3% a -0,1% 30%
0,3% a 0,5% 21%
0,0% a 0,2% 14%
0,6% a 0,8% 11%
NUOVO
NUOVO
1 dic 2026
<-0,3%
10%
-0,3% a -0,1%
30%
0,0% a 0,2%
14%
0,3% a 0,5%
21%
0,6% a 0,8%
11%
0,9% a 1,1%
7%
≥1,2%
4%
-0,3% a -0,1% 30%
0,3% a 0,5% 21%
0,0% a 0,2% 14%
0,6% a 0,8% 11%
NUOVO
NUOVO
1 dic 2026
<-0,3%
$63 Vol.
10%
-0,3% a -0,1%
$583 Vol.
30%
0,0% a 0,2%
$1,699 Vol.
14%
0,3% a 0,5%
$53 Vol.
21%
0,6% a 0,8%
$63 Vol.
11%
0,9% a 1,1%
$53 Vol.
7%
≥1,2%
$53 Vol.
4%
This market will resolve according to Brazil’s gross domestic product growth rate compared to the prior quarter (GDP at market prices, %) in the 3rd quarter of 2026, as reported by the Instituto Brasileiro de Geografia e Estatística’s (IBGE) System of Quarterly National Accounts release for Q3 of 2026, scheduled for release on December 2, 2026.
The GDP release and relevant statistics will be made available here: https://www.ibge.gov.br/en/statistics/economic/national-accounts/17262-quarterly-national-accounts.html
If the specified release is not published, this market will resolve based on the first published figure for the specified quarter’s GDP growth rate compared to the prior quarter. If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports GDP growth rates compared to the prior quarter to only one decimal point (e.g. 0.8%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.ibge.gov.br/en/calendar.htmlRecent Q2 2026 GDP data showing a 0.5% QoQ expansion—below Q1’s 1.1% pace—has anchored trader expectations for continued deceleration in Q3 amid the Central Bank’s restrictive Selic stance near 13.75%. Elevated borrowing costs, high household indebtedness, and fading fiscal stimulus have weighed on domestic demand, with early indicators pointing to near-zero or negative sequential growth. Market-implied odds cluster around flat-to-mildly negative outcomes, reflecting uncertainty over the pace of cooling and any residual commodity or agricultural support, while full-year 2026 consensus forecasts have edged lower to the 1.7–1.9% range following the release.
This market will resolve according to Brazil’s gross domestic product growth rate compared to the prior quarter (GDP at market prices, %) in the 3rd quarter of 2026, as reported by the Instituto Brasileiro de Geografia e Estatística’s (IBGE) System of Quarterly National Accounts release for Q3 of 2026, scheduled for release on December 2, 2026.
The GDP release and relevant statistics will be made available here: https://www.ibge.gov.br/en/statistics/economic/national-accounts/17262-quarterly-national-accounts.html
If the specified release is not published, this market will resolve based on the first published figure for the specified quarter’s GDP growth rate compared to the prior quarter. If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports GDP growth rates compared to the prior quarter to only one decimal point (e.g. 0.8%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.ibge.gov.br/en/calendar.html
The GDP release and relevant statistics will be made available here: https://www.ibge.gov.br/en/statistics/economic/national-accounts/17262-quarterly-national-accounts.html
If the specified release is not published, this market will resolve based on the first published figure for the specified quarter’s GDP growth rate compared to the prior quarter. If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports GDP growth rates compared to the prior quarter to only one decimal point (e.g. 0.8%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.ibge.gov.br/en/calendar.html
Mercato aperto: Sep 8, 2026, 7:35 PM ET
Volume
$2,567Data di fine
2 dic 2026Mercato aperto
Sep 8, 2026, 7:35 PM ETRisolutore
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to Brazil’s gross domestic product growth rate compared to the prior quarter (GDP at market prices, %) in the 3rd quarter of 2026, as reported by the Instituto Brasileiro de Geografia e Estatística’s (IBGE) System of Quarterly National Accounts release for Q3 of 2026, scheduled for release on December 2, 2026.
The GDP release and relevant statistics will be made available here: https://www.ibge.gov.br/en/statistics/economic/national-accounts/17262-quarterly-national-accounts.html
If the specified release is not published, this market will resolve based on the first published figure for the specified quarter’s GDP growth rate compared to the prior quarter. If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports GDP growth rates compared to the prior quarter to only one decimal point (e.g. 0.8%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.ibge.gov.br/en/calendar.htmlRecent Q2 2026 GDP data showing a 0.5% QoQ expansion—below Q1’s 1.1% pace—has anchored trader expectations for continued deceleration in Q3 amid the Central Bank’s restrictive Selic stance near 13.75%. Elevated borrowing costs, high household indebtedness, and fading fiscal stimulus have weighed on domestic demand, with early indicators pointing to near-zero or negative sequential growth. Market-implied odds cluster around flat-to-mildly negative outcomes, reflecting uncertainty over the pace of cooling and any residual commodity or agricultural support, while full-year 2026 consensus forecasts have edged lower to the 1.7–1.9% range following the release.
This market will resolve according to Brazil’s gross domestic product growth rate compared to the prior quarter (GDP at market prices, %) in the 3rd quarter of 2026, as reported by the Instituto Brasileiro de Geografia e Estatística’s (IBGE) System of Quarterly National Accounts release for Q3 of 2026, scheduled for release on December 2, 2026.
The GDP release and relevant statistics will be made available here: https://www.ibge.gov.br/en/statistics/economic/national-accounts/17262-quarterly-national-accounts.html
If the specified release is not published, this market will resolve based on the first published figure for the specified quarter’s GDP growth rate compared to the prior quarter. If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports GDP growth rates compared to the prior quarter to only one decimal point (e.g. 0.8%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.ibge.gov.br/en/calendar.html
The GDP release and relevant statistics will be made available here: https://www.ibge.gov.br/en/statistics/economic/national-accounts/17262-quarterly-national-accounts.html
If the specified release is not published, this market will resolve based on the first published figure for the specified quarter’s GDP growth rate compared to the prior quarter. If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports GDP growth rates compared to the prior quarter to only one decimal point (e.g. 0.8%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.ibge.gov.br/en/calendar.html
Volume
$2,567Data di fine
2 dic 2026Mercato aperto
Sep 8, 2026, 7:35 PM ETRisolutore
0x69c47De9D...Recent Q2 2026 GDP data showing a 0.5% QoQ expansion—below Q1’s 1.1% pace—has anchored trader expectations for continued deceleration in Q3 amid the Central Bank’s restrictive Selic stance near 13.75%. Elevated borrowing costs, high household indebtedness, and fading fiscal stimulus have weighed on domestic demand, with early indicators pointing to near-zero or negative sequential growth. Market-implied odds cluster around flat-to-mildly negative outcomes, reflecting uncertainty over the pace of cooling and any residual commodity or agricultural support, while full-year 2026 consensus forecasts have edged lower to the 1.7–1.9% range following the release.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato
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