Recent model consensus from sources like Open-Meteo and national forecasts shows Warsaw's minimum temperature on September 21 likely near 9–11°C amid a passing cold front with westerly flow and 60–85% rain probability. This positions trader sentiment near the 6°C-or-below and 16°C-or-higher buckets because ensemble spreads still allow for faster cooling if the front arrives earlier or slower moderation if cloud cover lingers. Key differentiators include the precise timing of the low relative to the frontal passage, local urban heat retention versus rural stations, and any overnight clear-sky radiational cooling that could push readings below 8°C or keep them above 12°C. Updated runs from the National Weather Service equivalents and ECMWF are expected within 24 hours to narrow the range.