Recent National Weather Service and private forecasts indicate a minimum temperature in the upper 50s°F for San Francisco on September 11, 2026, with several models centering near 59°F. This aligns with the market's leading 60-61°F bin at 52.5% implied probability, reflecting typical early-fall marine influence from onshore westerly flow and a moderating Pacific high that limits overnight radiative cooling. Recent days have run warmer than the 1991-2020 normal low of 56°F, including a 66°F minimum on September 9, yet a cooling trend and increased cloud cover overnight are expected to pull readings closer to seasonal averages. Higher-probability bins around 62-63°F capture upside risk from delayed marine-layer strengthening, while the 70°F+ outcome remains an outlier inconsistent with current guidance. Resolution hinges on official observations at key stations such as downtown San Francisco or KSFO.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · AggiornatoLa temperatura più bassa di San Francisco l'11 settembre?
La temperatura più bassa di San Francisco l'11 settembre?
60-61°F 47%
70°F o superiore 44%
51°F o inferiore 42%
56-57°F 34%
NUOVO
NUOVO
11 set 2026
51°F o inferiore
42%
52-53°F
15%
54-55°F
14%
56-57°F
34%
58-59°F
14%
60-61°F
52%
62-63°F
26%
64-65°F
17%
66-67°F
15%
68-69°F
15%
70°F o superiore
44%
60-61°F 47%
70°F o superiore 44%
51°F o inferiore 42%
56-57°F 34%
NUOVO
NUOVO
11 set 2026
51°F o inferiore
$0 Vol.
42%
52-53°F
$0 Vol.
15%
54-55°F
$0 Vol.
14%
56-57°F
$0 Vol.
34%
58-59°F
$22 Vol.
14%
60-61°F
$123 Vol.
52%
62-63°F
$34 Vol.
26%
64-65°F
$0 Vol.
17%
66-67°F
$0 Vol.
15%
68-69°F
$0 Vol.
15%
70°F o superiore
$0 Vol.
44%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the San Francisco International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 11 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=ksfo
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent National Weather Service and private forecasts indicate a minimum temperature in the upper 50s°F for San Francisco on September 11, 2026, with several models centering near 59°F. This aligns with the market's leading 60-61°F bin at 52.5% implied probability, reflecting typical early-fall marine influence from onshore westerly flow and a moderating Pacific high that limits overnight radiative cooling. Recent days have run warmer than the 1991-2020 normal low of 56°F, including a 66°F minimum on September 9, yet a cooling trend and increased cloud cover overnight are expected to pull readings closer to seasonal averages. Higher-probability bins around 62-63°F capture upside risk from delayed marine-layer strengthening, while the 70°F+ outcome remains an outlier inconsistent with current guidance. Resolution hinges on official observations at key stations such as downtown San Francisco or KSFO.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the San Francisco International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 11 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=ksfo
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=ksfo
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Mercato aperto: Sep 9, 2026, 7:29 AM ET
Volume
$180Data di fine
11 set 2026Mercato aperto
Sep 9, 2026, 7:29 AM ETFonte di risoluzione
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=ksfoRisolutore
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the San Francisco International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 11 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=ksfo
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent National Weather Service and private forecasts indicate a minimum temperature in the upper 50s°F for San Francisco on September 11, 2026, with several models centering near 59°F. This aligns with the market's leading 60-61°F bin at 52.5% implied probability, reflecting typical early-fall marine influence from onshore westerly flow and a moderating Pacific high that limits overnight radiative cooling. Recent days have run warmer than the 1991-2020 normal low of 56°F, including a 66°F minimum on September 9, yet a cooling trend and increased cloud cover overnight are expected to pull readings closer to seasonal averages. Higher-probability bins around 62-63°F capture upside risk from delayed marine-layer strengthening, while the 70°F+ outcome remains an outlier inconsistent with current guidance. Resolution hinges on official observations at key stations such as downtown San Francisco or KSFO.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the San Francisco International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 11 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=ksfo
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=ksfo
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$180Data di fine
11 set 2026Mercato aperto
Sep 9, 2026, 7:29 AM ETFonte di risoluzione
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=ksfoRisolutore
0x69c47De9D...Recent National Weather Service and private forecasts indicate a minimum temperature in the upper 50s°F for San Francisco on September 11, 2026, with several models centering near 59°F. This aligns with the market's leading 60-61°F bin at 52.5% implied probability, reflecting typical early-fall marine influence from onshore westerly flow and a moderating Pacific high that limits overnight radiative cooling. Recent days have run warmer than the 1991-2020 normal low of 56°F, including a 66°F minimum on September 9, yet a cooling trend and increased cloud cover overnight are expected to pull readings closer to seasonal averages. Higher-probability bins around 62-63°F capture upside risk from delayed marine-layer strengthening, while the 70°F+ outcome remains an outlier inconsistent with current guidance. Resolution hinges on official observations at key stations such as downtown San Francisco or KSFO.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato
Fai attenzione ai link esterni.
Fai attenzione ai link esterni.
Domande frequenti