Japan’s Q3 2026 GDP growth expectations center on the 0.8–1.6% annualized band, reflecting analyst forecasts around 0.6% QoQ annualized amid subdued domestic demand. The Q2 2026 final print rose to 1.4% annualized (0.4% QoQ), revised higher on stronger government spending and net exports while private consumption stayed essentially flat and capital expenditure remained negative. Elevated energy costs tied to Middle East developments continue to pressure household spending and corporate margins, even as real wages posted a 2.4% YoY gain in July. Traders price in a modest expansion consistent with the Bank of Japan’s 1.00% policy rate and limited fiscal stimulus effects, with the next key data release scheduled for November 15.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato0.8%–1.6% 54%
0.0%–0.8% 20.8%
1.6%–2.4% 10.8%
-0.8%–0.0% 9%
$25,967 Vol.
$25,967 Vol.
15 nov 2026
<-2.4%
3%
-2.4%– -1.6%
1%
-1.6%– -0.8%
3%
-0.8%–0.0%
9%
0.0%–0.8%
21%
0.8%–1.6%
54%
1.6%–2.4%
11%
2.4%–3.2%
5%
3.2%–4.0%
3%
4.0%+
1%
0.8%–1.6% 54%
0.0%–0.8% 20.8%
1.6%–2.4% 10.8%
-0.8%–0.0% 9%
$25,967 Vol.
$25,967 Vol.
15 nov 2026
<-2.4%
$594 Vol.
3%
-2.4%– -1.6%
$3,748 Vol.
1%
-1.6%– -0.8%
$282 Vol.
3%
-0.8%–0.0%
$2,312 Vol.
9%
0.0%–0.8%
$10,989 Vol.
21%
0.8%–1.6%
$2,218 Vol.
54%
1.6%–2.4%
$679 Vol.
11%
2.4%–3.2%
$3,348 Vol.
5%
3.2%–4.0%
$1,234 Vol.
3%
4.0%+
$561 Vol.
1%
This market will resolve according to Japan's real gross domestic product growth rate (Quarter-over-Quarter Annualized, %) in the third quarter of 2026, as reported in the Japan Cabinet Office's Quarterly Estimates of GDP (First Preliminary Estimates) release for Q3 of 2026, scheduled for release on November 16, 2026.
The relevant figure may be found in the summary document, in table 1-1 'Quarterly Real Growth Rate (Seasonally Adjusted Series, Quarter-to-Quarter)' — this figure expresses the quarterly growth rate compounded over four quarters to produce an annualized equivalent. Changes in the Japan Cabinet Office's GDP reporting format will not disqualify a published figure from counting.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.esri.cao.go.jp/en/sna/sokuhou/sokuhou_top.html
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports Quarter-over-Quarter Annualized GDP growth rates to only one decimal point (e.g. 2.1%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.esri.cao.go.jp/en/sna/kouhyou/kouhyou_top.htmlJapan’s Q3 2026 GDP growth expectations center on the 0.8–1.6% annualized band, reflecting analyst forecasts around 0.6% QoQ annualized amid subdued domestic demand. The Q2 2026 final print rose to 1.4% annualized (0.4% QoQ), revised higher on stronger government spending and net exports while private consumption stayed essentially flat and capital expenditure remained negative. Elevated energy costs tied to Middle East developments continue to pressure household spending and corporate margins, even as real wages posted a 2.4% YoY gain in July. Traders price in a modest expansion consistent with the Bank of Japan’s 1.00% policy rate and limited fiscal stimulus effects, with the next key data release scheduled for November 15.
This market will resolve according to Japan's real gross domestic product growth rate (Quarter-over-Quarter Annualized, %) in the third quarter of 2026, as reported in the Japan Cabinet Office's Quarterly Estimates of GDP (First Preliminary Estimates) release for Q3 of 2026, scheduled for release on November 16, 2026.
The relevant figure may be found in the summary document, in table 1-1 'Quarterly Real Growth Rate (Seasonally Adjusted Series, Quarter-to-Quarter)' — this figure expresses the quarterly growth rate compounded over four quarters to produce an annualized equivalent. Changes in the Japan Cabinet Office's GDP reporting format will not disqualify a published figure from counting.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.esri.cao.go.jp/en/sna/sokuhou/sokuhou_top.html
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports Quarter-over-Quarter Annualized GDP growth rates to only one decimal point (e.g. 2.1%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.esri.cao.go.jp/en/sna/kouhyou/kouhyou_top.html
The relevant figure may be found in the summary document, in table 1-1 'Quarterly Real Growth Rate (Seasonally Adjusted Series, Quarter-to-Quarter)' — this figure expresses the quarterly growth rate compounded over four quarters to produce an annualized equivalent. Changes in the Japan Cabinet Office's GDP reporting format will not disqualify a published figure from counting.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.esri.cao.go.jp/en/sna/sokuhou/sokuhou_top.html
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports Quarter-over-Quarter Annualized GDP growth rates to only one decimal point (e.g. 2.1%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.esri.cao.go.jp/en/sna/kouhyou/kouhyou_top.html
Mercato aperto: Aug 17, 2026, 3:20 PM ET
Volume
$25,967Data di fine
16 nov 2026Mercato aperto
Aug 17, 2026, 3:20 PM ETRisolutore
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to Japan's real gross domestic product growth rate (Quarter-over-Quarter Annualized, %) in the third quarter of 2026, as reported in the Japan Cabinet Office's Quarterly Estimates of GDP (First Preliminary Estimates) release for Q3 of 2026, scheduled for release on November 16, 2026.
The relevant figure may be found in the summary document, in table 1-1 'Quarterly Real Growth Rate (Seasonally Adjusted Series, Quarter-to-Quarter)' — this figure expresses the quarterly growth rate compounded over four quarters to produce an annualized equivalent. Changes in the Japan Cabinet Office's GDP reporting format will not disqualify a published figure from counting.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.esri.cao.go.jp/en/sna/sokuhou/sokuhou_top.html
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports Quarter-over-Quarter Annualized GDP growth rates to only one decimal point (e.g. 2.1%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.esri.cao.go.jp/en/sna/kouhyou/kouhyou_top.htmlJapan’s Q3 2026 GDP growth expectations center on the 0.8–1.6% annualized band, reflecting analyst forecasts around 0.6% QoQ annualized amid subdued domestic demand. The Q2 2026 final print rose to 1.4% annualized (0.4% QoQ), revised higher on stronger government spending and net exports while private consumption stayed essentially flat and capital expenditure remained negative. Elevated energy costs tied to Middle East developments continue to pressure household spending and corporate margins, even as real wages posted a 2.4% YoY gain in July. Traders price in a modest expansion consistent with the Bank of Japan’s 1.00% policy rate and limited fiscal stimulus effects, with the next key data release scheduled for November 15.
This market will resolve according to Japan's real gross domestic product growth rate (Quarter-over-Quarter Annualized, %) in the third quarter of 2026, as reported in the Japan Cabinet Office's Quarterly Estimates of GDP (First Preliminary Estimates) release for Q3 of 2026, scheduled for release on November 16, 2026.
The relevant figure may be found in the summary document, in table 1-1 'Quarterly Real Growth Rate (Seasonally Adjusted Series, Quarter-to-Quarter)' — this figure expresses the quarterly growth rate compounded over four quarters to produce an annualized equivalent. Changes in the Japan Cabinet Office's GDP reporting format will not disqualify a published figure from counting.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.esri.cao.go.jp/en/sna/sokuhou/sokuhou_top.html
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports Quarter-over-Quarter Annualized GDP growth rates to only one decimal point (e.g. 2.1%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.esri.cao.go.jp/en/sna/kouhyou/kouhyou_top.html
The relevant figure may be found in the summary document, in table 1-1 'Quarterly Real Growth Rate (Seasonally Adjusted Series, Quarter-to-Quarter)' — this figure expresses the quarterly growth rate compounded over four quarters to produce an annualized equivalent. Changes in the Japan Cabinet Office's GDP reporting format will not disqualify a published figure from counting.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.esri.cao.go.jp/en/sna/sokuhou/sokuhou_top.html
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports Quarter-over-Quarter Annualized GDP growth rates to only one decimal point (e.g. 2.1%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.esri.cao.go.jp/en/sna/kouhyou/kouhyou_top.html
Volume
$25,967Data di fine
16 nov 2026Mercato aperto
Aug 17, 2026, 3:20 PM ETRisolutore
0x69c47De9D...Japan’s Q3 2026 GDP growth expectations center on the 0.8–1.6% annualized band, reflecting analyst forecasts around 0.6% QoQ annualized amid subdued domestic demand. The Q2 2026 final print rose to 1.4% annualized (0.4% QoQ), revised higher on stronger government spending and net exports while private consumption stayed essentially flat and capital expenditure remained negative. Elevated energy costs tied to Middle East developments continue to pressure household spending and corporate margins, even as real wages posted a 2.4% YoY gain in July. Traders price in a modest expansion consistent with the Bank of Japan’s 1.00% policy rate and limited fiscal stimulus effects, with the next key data release scheduled for November 15.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato
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