Iceland’s August 2026 referendum on resuming EU accession negotiations produced a narrow “No” victory of 52.8% to 47.2%, a margin of roughly 5.6 percentage points that aligns with the market’s dominant pricing on a 3–6% “No” outcome. Strong turnout above 82% and a pronounced urban-rural split—Reykjavík constituencies favoring renewed talks while rural districts rejected them by wider margins—locked in the result once counting concluded. Fisheries protection and sovereignty concerns outweighed arguments about currency stability or Arctic security ties, consistent with late polling shifts and the government’s “now or never” framing. With official tallies from the public broadcaster confirming the gap and no procedural disputes reported, traders assign overwhelming probability to this band; only an unprecedented recount or delayed certification altering the certified margin would shift the outcome.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · AggiornatoNo 3–6% 95.5%
Sì <3% 6.9%
No 6–9% 4.4%
No <3% 4.0%
$16,834 Vol.
$16,834 Vol.
29 ago 2026
Sì 15%+
1%
Sì 12–15%
1%
Sì 9–12%
1%
Sì 6–9%
1%
Sì 3–6%
1%
Sì <3%
7%
No <3%
4%
No 3–6%
95%
No 6–9%
4%
No 9–12%
4%
No 12–15%
4%
No 15%+
2%
No 3–6% 95.5%
Sì <3% 6.9%
No 6–9% 4.4%
No <3% 4.0%
$16,834 Vol.
$16,834 Vol.
29 ago 2026
Sì 15%+
$827 Vol.
1%
Sì 12–15%
$323 Vol.
1%
Sì 9–12%
$2,594 Vol.
1%
Sì 6–9%
$315 Vol.
1%
Sì 3–6%
$1,117 Vol.
1%
Sì <3%
$382 Vol.
7%
No <3%
$3,391 Vol.
4%
No 3–6%
$1,284 Vol.
95%
No 6–9%
$424 Vol.
4%
No 9–12%
$355 Vol.
4%
No 12–15%
$297 Vol.
4%
No 15%+
$5,525 Vol.
2%
The Icelandic European Union membership negotiations referendum is scheduled to be held on August 29, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between "Yes" and "No" in the referendum.
The “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by "Yes" and "No". Percentages will be determined by dividing the number of valid votes each option receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the referendum.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If "Yes" and "No" receive the exact same number of valid votes, this market will resolve to the lowest "No" margin bracket.
This market will resolve based on the results of the vote once the count has been made official. If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
If the referendum is officially rescheduled to a date prior to December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the same rule applies to the new ballot and its corresponding deadlines. If the results of the referendum are not known definitively, or no qualifying referendum vote occurs, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other.”
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the vote as published by the Government of Iceland, including the National Electoral Commission of Iceland (https://island.is/en/o/landskjorstjorn) and Statistics Iceland (https://www.statice.is/statistics/population/elections/); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.Iceland’s August 2026 referendum on resuming EU accession negotiations produced a narrow “No” victory of 52.8% to 47.2%, a margin of roughly 5.6 percentage points that aligns with the market’s dominant pricing on a 3–6% “No” outcome. Strong turnout above 82% and a pronounced urban-rural split—Reykjavík constituencies favoring renewed talks while rural districts rejected them by wider margins—locked in the result once counting concluded. Fisheries protection and sovereignty concerns outweighed arguments about currency stability or Arctic security ties, consistent with late polling shifts and the government’s “now or never” framing. With official tallies from the public broadcaster confirming the gap and no procedural disputes reported, traders assign overwhelming probability to this band; only an unprecedented recount or delayed certification altering the certified margin would shift the outcome.
The Icelandic European Union membership negotiations referendum is scheduled to be held on August 29, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between "Yes" and "No" in the referendum.
The “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by "Yes" and "No". Percentages will be determined by dividing the number of valid votes each option receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the referendum.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If "Yes" and "No" receive the exact same number of valid votes, this market will resolve to the lowest "No" margin bracket.
This market will resolve based on the results of the vote once the count has been made official. If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
If the referendum is officially rescheduled to a date prior to December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the same rule applies to the new ballot and its corresponding deadlines. If the results of the referendum are not known definitively, or no qualifying referendum vote occurs, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other.”
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the vote as published by the Government of Iceland, including the National Electoral Commission of Iceland (https://island.is/en/o/landskjorstjorn) and Statistics Iceland (https://www.statice.is/statistics/population/elections/); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between "Yes" and "No" in the referendum.
The “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by "Yes" and "No". Percentages will be determined by dividing the number of valid votes each option receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the referendum.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If "Yes" and "No" receive the exact same number of valid votes, this market will resolve to the lowest "No" margin bracket.
This market will resolve based on the results of the vote once the count has been made official. If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
If the referendum is officially rescheduled to a date prior to December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the same rule applies to the new ballot and its corresponding deadlines. If the results of the referendum are not known definitively, or no qualifying referendum vote occurs, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other.”
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the vote as published by the Government of Iceland, including the National Electoral Commission of Iceland (https://island.is/en/o/landskjorstjorn) and Statistics Iceland (https://www.statice.is/statistics/population/elections/); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
Mercato aperto: Aug 27, 2026, 12:19 PM ET
Volume
$16,834Data di fine
29 ago 2026Mercato aperto
Aug 27, 2026, 12:19 PM ETRisolutore
0x69c47De9D...The Icelandic European Union membership negotiations referendum is scheduled to be held on August 29, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between "Yes" and "No" in the referendum.
The “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by "Yes" and "No". Percentages will be determined by dividing the number of valid votes each option receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the referendum.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If "Yes" and "No" receive the exact same number of valid votes, this market will resolve to the lowest "No" margin bracket.
This market will resolve based on the results of the vote once the count has been made official. If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
If the referendum is officially rescheduled to a date prior to December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the same rule applies to the new ballot and its corresponding deadlines. If the results of the referendum are not known definitively, or no qualifying referendum vote occurs, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other.”
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the vote as published by the Government of Iceland, including the National Electoral Commission of Iceland (https://island.is/en/o/landskjorstjorn) and Statistics Iceland (https://www.statice.is/statistics/population/elections/); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.Iceland’s August 2026 referendum on resuming EU accession negotiations produced a narrow “No” victory of 52.8% to 47.2%, a margin of roughly 5.6 percentage points that aligns with the market’s dominant pricing on a 3–6% “No” outcome. Strong turnout above 82% and a pronounced urban-rural split—Reykjavík constituencies favoring renewed talks while rural districts rejected them by wider margins—locked in the result once counting concluded. Fisheries protection and sovereignty concerns outweighed arguments about currency stability or Arctic security ties, consistent with late polling shifts and the government’s “now or never” framing. With official tallies from the public broadcaster confirming the gap and no procedural disputes reported, traders assign overwhelming probability to this band; only an unprecedented recount or delayed certification altering the certified margin would shift the outcome.
The Icelandic European Union membership negotiations referendum is scheduled to be held on August 29, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between "Yes" and "No" in the referendum.
The “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by "Yes" and "No". Percentages will be determined by dividing the number of valid votes each option receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the referendum.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If "Yes" and "No" receive the exact same number of valid votes, this market will resolve to the lowest "No" margin bracket.
This market will resolve based on the results of the vote once the count has been made official. If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
If the referendum is officially rescheduled to a date prior to December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the same rule applies to the new ballot and its corresponding deadlines. If the results of the referendum are not known definitively, or no qualifying referendum vote occurs, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other.”
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the vote as published by the Government of Iceland, including the National Electoral Commission of Iceland (https://island.is/en/o/landskjorstjorn) and Statistics Iceland (https://www.statice.is/statistics/population/elections/); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between "Yes" and "No" in the referendum.
The “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by "Yes" and "No". Percentages will be determined by dividing the number of valid votes each option receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the referendum.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If "Yes" and "No" receive the exact same number of valid votes, this market will resolve to the lowest "No" margin bracket.
This market will resolve based on the results of the vote once the count has been made official. If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
If the referendum is officially rescheduled to a date prior to December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the same rule applies to the new ballot and its corresponding deadlines. If the results of the referendum are not known definitively, or no qualifying referendum vote occurs, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other.”
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the vote as published by the Government of Iceland, including the National Electoral Commission of Iceland (https://island.is/en/o/landskjorstjorn) and Statistics Iceland (https://www.statice.is/statistics/population/elections/); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
Volume
$16,834Data di fine
29 ago 2026Mercato aperto
Aug 27, 2026, 12:19 PM ETRisolutore
0x69c47De9D...Iceland’s August 2026 referendum on resuming EU accession negotiations produced a narrow “No” victory of 52.8% to 47.2%, a margin of roughly 5.6 percentage points that aligns with the market’s dominant pricing on a 3–6% “No” outcome. Strong turnout above 82% and a pronounced urban-rural split—Reykjavík constituencies favoring renewed talks while rural districts rejected them by wider margins—locked in the result once counting concluded. Fisheries protection and sovereignty concerns outweighed arguments about currency stability or Arctic security ties, consistent with late polling shifts and the government’s “now or never” framing. With official tallies from the public broadcaster confirming the gap and no procedural disputes reported, traders assign overwhelming probability to this band; only an unprecedented recount or delayed certification altering the certified margin would shift the outcome.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato
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