SpaceX's Starship program has completed 13 total test flights through July 2026, including successful V3 vehicle missions in May and July that deployed Starlink simulators and achieved controlled splashdowns, positioning the market's 54% implied probability on 5-6 launches reaching space for the full year. FAA approvals for up to 25 annual operations from Starbase, expanded trajectories, and new pads support higher cadence goals, yet development milestones like the first orbital attempt and booster catch on Flight 14 (targeted for September) remain gating factors with typical iteration delays. Trader sentiment reflects the shift toward operational Starlink V3 deployments amid ongoing Raptor engine and heat shield refinements, tempered by the risk of further setbacks before year-end resolution.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · AggiornatoQuanti lanci di astronavi SpaceX raggiungeranno lo spazio nel 2026?
Quanti lanci di astronavi SpaceX raggiungeranno lo spazio nel 2026?
5-6 54%
<5 33%
7-8 6.5%
11-12 3.0%
$493,114 Vol.
$493,114 Vol.
30 dic 2026
<5
33%
5-6
54%
7-8
6%
9-10
3%
11-12
3%
13-14
<1%
15-16
<1%
>16
1%
5-6 54%
<5 33%
7-8 6.5%
11-12 3.0%
$493,114 Vol.
$493,114 Vol.
30 dic 2026
<5
$99,154 Vol.
33%
5-6
$113,820 Vol.
54%
7-8
$158,488 Vol.
6%
9-10
$61,502 Vol.
3%
11-12
$8,397 Vol.
3%
13-14
$9,172 Vol.
<1%
15-16
$30,073 Vol.
<1%
>16
$12,509 Vol.
1%
This market will resolve according to the number of SpaceX Starship launches successfully reaching an altitude of 62 miles above sea level between January 1, 2026, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A successful launch is defined as the Starship taking off from its launchpad and reaching a minimum altitude of 62 miles above sea level. Any subsequent anomaly (e.g., an explosion) after the vehicle reaches 62 miles will have no bearing on the outcome.
The primary resolution source for this market will be SpaceX’s official video feed of the launches (e.g., via SpaceX YouTube Channel), as well as secondary video feeds or written reports if necessary. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.SpaceX's Starship program has completed 13 total test flights through July 2026, including successful V3 vehicle missions in May and July that deployed Starlink simulators and achieved controlled splashdowns, positioning the market's 54% implied probability on 5-6 launches reaching space for the full year. FAA approvals for up to 25 annual operations from Starbase, expanded trajectories, and new pads support higher cadence goals, yet development milestones like the first orbital attempt and booster catch on Flight 14 (targeted for September) remain gating factors with typical iteration delays. Trader sentiment reflects the shift toward operational Starlink V3 deployments amid ongoing Raptor engine and heat shield refinements, tempered by the risk of further setbacks before year-end resolution.
This market will resolve according to the number of SpaceX Starship launches successfully reaching an altitude of 62 miles above sea level between January 1, 2026, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A successful launch is defined as the Starship taking off from its launchpad and reaching a minimum altitude of 62 miles above sea level. Any subsequent anomaly (e.g., an explosion) after the vehicle reaches 62 miles will have no bearing on the outcome.
The primary resolution source for this market will be SpaceX’s official video feed of the launches (e.g., via SpaceX YouTube Channel), as well as secondary video feeds or written reports if necessary. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
A successful launch is defined as the Starship taking off from its launchpad and reaching a minimum altitude of 62 miles above sea level. Any subsequent anomaly (e.g., an explosion) after the vehicle reaches 62 miles will have no bearing on the outcome.
The primary resolution source for this market will be SpaceX’s official video feed of the launches (e.g., via SpaceX YouTube Channel), as well as secondary video feeds or written reports if necessary. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Mercato aperto: Dec 11, 2025, 7:39 PM ET
Volume
$493,114Data di fine
31 dic 2026Mercato aperto
Dec 11, 2025, 7:39 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the number of SpaceX Starship launches successfully reaching an altitude of 62 miles above sea level between January 1, 2026, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A successful launch is defined as the Starship taking off from its launchpad and reaching a minimum altitude of 62 miles above sea level. Any subsequent anomaly (e.g., an explosion) after the vehicle reaches 62 miles will have no bearing on the outcome.
The primary resolution source for this market will be SpaceX’s official video feed of the launches (e.g., via SpaceX YouTube Channel), as well as secondary video feeds or written reports if necessary. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.SpaceX's Starship program has completed 13 total test flights through July 2026, including successful V3 vehicle missions in May and July that deployed Starlink simulators and achieved controlled splashdowns, positioning the market's 54% implied probability on 5-6 launches reaching space for the full year. FAA approvals for up to 25 annual operations from Starbase, expanded trajectories, and new pads support higher cadence goals, yet development milestones like the first orbital attempt and booster catch on Flight 14 (targeted for September) remain gating factors with typical iteration delays. Trader sentiment reflects the shift toward operational Starlink V3 deployments amid ongoing Raptor engine and heat shield refinements, tempered by the risk of further setbacks before year-end resolution.
This market will resolve according to the number of SpaceX Starship launches successfully reaching an altitude of 62 miles above sea level between January 1, 2026, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A successful launch is defined as the Starship taking off from its launchpad and reaching a minimum altitude of 62 miles above sea level. Any subsequent anomaly (e.g., an explosion) after the vehicle reaches 62 miles will have no bearing on the outcome.
The primary resolution source for this market will be SpaceX’s official video feed of the launches (e.g., via SpaceX YouTube Channel), as well as secondary video feeds or written reports if necessary. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
A successful launch is defined as the Starship taking off from its launchpad and reaching a minimum altitude of 62 miles above sea level. Any subsequent anomaly (e.g., an explosion) after the vehicle reaches 62 miles will have no bearing on the outcome.
The primary resolution source for this market will be SpaceX’s official video feed of the launches (e.g., via SpaceX YouTube Channel), as well as secondary video feeds or written reports if necessary. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$493,114Data di fine
31 dic 2026Mercato aperto
Dec 11, 2025, 7:39 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...SpaceX's Starship program has completed 13 total test flights through July 2026, including successful V3 vehicle missions in May and July that deployed Starlink simulators and achieved controlled splashdowns, positioning the market's 54% implied probability on 5-6 launches reaching space for the full year. FAA approvals for up to 25 annual operations from Starbase, expanded trajectories, and new pads support higher cadence goals, yet development milestones like the first orbital attempt and booster catch on Flight 14 (targeted for September) remain gating factors with typical iteration delays. Trader sentiment reflects the shift toward operational Starlink V3 deployments amid ongoing Raptor engine and heat shield refinements, tempered by the risk of further setbacks before year-end resolution.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato
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