Trader consensus on the "Elon Bull Run Parlay" heavily favors "No" at 93.1% because all three conditions—reaching $1 trillion net worth on the Bloomberg Billionaires Index at any point in 2026, welcoming another child, and completing nine or more successful SpaceX Starship launches that reach space—must align by year-end. Musk briefly crossed $1 trillion following the SpaceX IPO earlier this year but has since fluctuated below that level, while Starship flight cadence remains far short of the required pace with only a handful of 2026 attempts logged so far. An additional child also appears unlikely in the remaining months. While a surge in Tesla or xAI valuation, accelerated Starship testing, or unexpected family news could theoretically shift outcomes, the combined hurdles sustain the market's strong skepticism.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · AggiornatoElon Bull Run Parlay
Elon Bull Run Parlay
7% probabilità
$11,904 Vol.
$11,904 Vol.
31 dic 2026
7% probabilità
$11,904 Vol.
$11,904 Vol.
31 dic 2026
This market will resolve to “Yes” if all of the following conditions are met between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET:
- Elon Musk trillionaire
- Another Elon baby
- 9+ SpaceX Starship launches reach space
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market will remain open until it is confirmed that at least one of the above conditions has not been met, or until all of the above conditions have been met within the specified timeframe.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Elon+Bull+Run+Parlay.pdfTrader consensus on the "Elon Bull Run Parlay" heavily favors "No" at 93.1% because all three conditions—reaching $1 trillion net worth on the Bloomberg Billionaires Index at any point in 2026, welcoming another child, and completing nine or more successful SpaceX Starship launches that reach space—must align by year-end. Musk briefly crossed $1 trillion following the SpaceX IPO earlier this year but has since fluctuated below that level, while Starship flight cadence remains far short of the required pace with only a handful of 2026 attempts logged so far. An additional child also appears unlikely in the remaining months. While a surge in Tesla or xAI valuation, accelerated Starship testing, or unexpected family news could theoretically shift outcomes, the combined hurdles sustain the market's strong skepticism.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if all of the following conditions are met between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET:
- Elon Musk trillionaire
- Another Elon baby
- 9+ SpaceX Starship launches reach space
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market will remain open until it is confirmed that at least one of the above conditions has not been met, or until all of the above conditions have been met within the specified timeframe.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Elon+Bull+Run+Parlay.pdf
- Elon Musk trillionaire
- Another Elon baby
- 9+ SpaceX Starship launches reach space
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market will remain open until it is confirmed that at least one of the above conditions has not been met, or until all of the above conditions have been met within the specified timeframe.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Elon+Bull+Run+Parlay.pdf
Mercato aperto: Feb 6, 2026, 6:03 PM ET
Volume
$11,904Data di fine
31 dic 2026Mercato aperto
Feb 6, 2026, 6:03 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if all of the following conditions are met between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET:
- Elon Musk trillionaire
- Another Elon baby
- 9+ SpaceX Starship launches reach space
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market will remain open until it is confirmed that at least one of the above conditions has not been met, or until all of the above conditions have been met within the specified timeframe.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Elon+Bull+Run+Parlay.pdfTrader consensus on the "Elon Bull Run Parlay" heavily favors "No" at 93.1% because all three conditions—reaching $1 trillion net worth on the Bloomberg Billionaires Index at any point in 2026, welcoming another child, and completing nine or more successful SpaceX Starship launches that reach space—must align by year-end. Musk briefly crossed $1 trillion following the SpaceX IPO earlier this year but has since fluctuated below that level, while Starship flight cadence remains far short of the required pace with only a handful of 2026 attempts logged so far. An additional child also appears unlikely in the remaining months. While a surge in Tesla or xAI valuation, accelerated Starship testing, or unexpected family news could theoretically shift outcomes, the combined hurdles sustain the market's strong skepticism.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if all of the following conditions are met between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET:
- Elon Musk trillionaire
- Another Elon baby
- 9+ SpaceX Starship launches reach space
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market will remain open until it is confirmed that at least one of the above conditions has not been met, or until all of the above conditions have been met within the specified timeframe.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Elon+Bull+Run+Parlay.pdf
- Elon Musk trillionaire
- Another Elon baby
- 9+ SpaceX Starship launches reach space
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market will remain open until it is confirmed that at least one of the above conditions has not been met, or until all of the above conditions have been met within the specified timeframe.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Elon+Bull+Run+Parlay.pdf
Volume
$11,904Data di fine
31 dic 2026Mercato aperto
Feb 6, 2026, 6:03 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus on the "Elon Bull Run Parlay" heavily favors "No" at 93.1% because all three conditions—reaching $1 trillion net worth on the Bloomberg Billionaires Index at any point in 2026, welcoming another child, and completing nine or more successful SpaceX Starship launches that reach space—must align by year-end. Musk briefly crossed $1 trillion following the SpaceX IPO earlier this year but has since fluctuated below that level, while Starship flight cadence remains far short of the required pace with only a handful of 2026 attempts logged so far. An additional child also appears unlikely in the remaining months. While a surge in Tesla or xAI valuation, accelerated Starship testing, or unexpected family news could theoretically shift outcomes, the combined hurdles sustain the market's strong skepticism.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato
Fai attenzione ai link esterni.
Fai attenzione ai link esterni.
Domande frequenti