**Trader sentiment for zero or one magnitude 6.5+ earthquake during August 31–September 6, 2026, reflects the global average rate of roughly one such event every eight days (~46 per year), combined with a relatively quiet recent period.** USGS data show M6.5+ events occur with high week-to-week variability but follow a stable long-term frequency; 2026 has tracked slightly below historical norms through late August despite notable earlier events such as the M7.7 Indonesia and M7.4 Colombia quakes. No official short-term forecast exists, as seismicity lacks reliable precursors on weekly timescales, and current monitoring shows no active clusters or aftershock sequences expected to produce additional M6.5+ events. The closely matched 44% and 35% implied probabilities for zero versus one capture this Poisson-like uncertainty around the mean of ~0.9 events per week.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · AggiornatoQuanti terremoti di magnitudo 6.5 o superiore in tutto il mondo dal 31 agosto al 6 settembre?
Quanti terremoti di magnitudo 6.5 o superiore in tutto il mondo dal 31 agosto al 6 settembre?
0 44%
1 35%
2 17%
3 8%
NUOVO
NUOVO
7 set 2026
0
44%
1
35%
2
17%
3
8%
4
2%
5
<1%
più di 5
1%
0 44%
1 35%
2 17%
3 8%
NUOVO
NUOVO
7 set 2026
0
$748 Vol.
44%
1
$120 Vol.
35%
2
$35 Vol.
17%
3
$17 Vol.
8%
4
$32 Vol.
2%
5
$144 Vol.
<1%
più di 5
$22 Vol.
1%
This market will resolve according to the total number of earthquakes with a magnitude of 6.5 or higher that occur anywhere on Earth between August 31, 2026, 12:00 AM ET and September 6, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program, with the minimum magnitude set to 6.5 and the date parameters set to the relevant dates for this market's timeframe (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/search/).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until 48 hours after the market's closing time, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that time, another credible resolution source will be used.
This market may not resolve until the timeframe of this market has concluded. If a qualifying earthquake has been recorded on the final day, this market may remain open for 24 hours to allow for revisions to the recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.**Trader sentiment for zero or one magnitude 6.5+ earthquake during August 31–September 6, 2026, reflects the global average rate of roughly one such event every eight days (~46 per year), combined with a relatively quiet recent period.** USGS data show M6.5+ events occur with high week-to-week variability but follow a stable long-term frequency; 2026 has tracked slightly below historical norms through late August despite notable earlier events such as the M7.7 Indonesia and M7.4 Colombia quakes. No official short-term forecast exists, as seismicity lacks reliable precursors on weekly timescales, and current monitoring shows no active clusters or aftershock sequences expected to produce additional M6.5+ events. The closely matched 44% and 35% implied probabilities for zero versus one capture this Poisson-like uncertainty around the mean of ~0.9 events per week.
This market will resolve according to the total number of earthquakes with a magnitude of 6.5 or higher that occur anywhere on Earth between August 31, 2026, 12:00 AM ET and September 6, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program, with the minimum magnitude set to 6.5 and the date parameters set to the relevant dates for this market's timeframe (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/search/).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until 48 hours after the market's closing time, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that time, another credible resolution source will be used.
This market may not resolve until the timeframe of this market has concluded. If a qualifying earthquake has been recorded on the final day, this market may remain open for 24 hours to allow for revisions to the recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program, with the minimum magnitude set to 6.5 and the date parameters set to the relevant dates for this market's timeframe (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/search/).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until 48 hours after the market's closing time, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that time, another credible resolution source will be used.
This market may not resolve until the timeframe of this market has concluded. If a qualifying earthquake has been recorded on the final day, this market may remain open for 24 hours to allow for revisions to the recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
Mercato aperto: Aug 28, 2026, 11:01 AM ET
Volume
$1,118Data di fine
7 set 2026Mercato aperto
Aug 28, 2026, 11:01 AM ETFonte di risoluzione
https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/search/Risolutore
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the total number of earthquakes with a magnitude of 6.5 or higher that occur anywhere on Earth between August 31, 2026, 12:00 AM ET and September 6, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program, with the minimum magnitude set to 6.5 and the date parameters set to the relevant dates for this market's timeframe (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/search/).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until 48 hours after the market's closing time, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that time, another credible resolution source will be used.
This market may not resolve until the timeframe of this market has concluded. If a qualifying earthquake has been recorded on the final day, this market may remain open for 24 hours to allow for revisions to the recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.**Trader sentiment for zero or one magnitude 6.5+ earthquake during August 31–September 6, 2026, reflects the global average rate of roughly one such event every eight days (~46 per year), combined with a relatively quiet recent period.** USGS data show M6.5+ events occur with high week-to-week variability but follow a stable long-term frequency; 2026 has tracked slightly below historical norms through late August despite notable earlier events such as the M7.7 Indonesia and M7.4 Colombia quakes. No official short-term forecast exists, as seismicity lacks reliable precursors on weekly timescales, and current monitoring shows no active clusters or aftershock sequences expected to produce additional M6.5+ events. The closely matched 44% and 35% implied probabilities for zero versus one capture this Poisson-like uncertainty around the mean of ~0.9 events per week.
This market will resolve according to the total number of earthquakes with a magnitude of 6.5 or higher that occur anywhere on Earth between August 31, 2026, 12:00 AM ET and September 6, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program, with the minimum magnitude set to 6.5 and the date parameters set to the relevant dates for this market's timeframe (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/search/).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until 48 hours after the market's closing time, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that time, another credible resolution source will be used.
This market may not resolve until the timeframe of this market has concluded. If a qualifying earthquake has been recorded on the final day, this market may remain open for 24 hours to allow for revisions to the recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program, with the minimum magnitude set to 6.5 and the date parameters set to the relevant dates for this market's timeframe (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/search/).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until 48 hours after the market's closing time, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that time, another credible resolution source will be used.
This market may not resolve until the timeframe of this market has concluded. If a qualifying earthquake has been recorded on the final day, this market may remain open for 24 hours to allow for revisions to the recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
Volume
$1,118Data di fine
7 set 2026Mercato aperto
Aug 28, 2026, 11:01 AM ETFonte di risoluzione
https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/search/Risolutore
0x69c47De9D...**Trader sentiment for zero or one magnitude 6.5+ earthquake during August 31–September 6, 2026, reflects the global average rate of roughly one such event every eight days (~46 per year), combined with a relatively quiet recent period.** USGS data show M6.5+ events occur with high week-to-week variability but follow a stable long-term frequency; 2026 has tracked slightly below historical norms through late August despite notable earlier events such as the M7.7 Indonesia and M7.4 Colombia quakes. No official short-term forecast exists, as seismicity lacks reliable precursors on weekly timescales, and current monitoring shows no active clusters or aftershock sequences expected to produce additional M6.5+ events. The closely matched 44% and 35% implied probabilities for zero versus one capture this Poisson-like uncertainty around the mean of ~0.9 events per week.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato
Fai attenzione ai link esterni.
Fai attenzione ai link esterni.
Domande frequenti