Trader sentiment on Green vote share ranges in the Holborn and St Pancras by-election remains closely matched across multiple bands, reflecting uncertainty over the party's ability to convert recent local momentum into national parliamentary support. Zack Polanski's selection as candidate has focused attention on the seat vacated by Keir Starmer, with projections and local election data from May 2026 showing the Greens achieving around 28% in Camden wards against Labour's lead. By-election dynamics, including lower turnout, targeted campaigning, and the absence of a strong independent challenger following Andrew Feinstein's endorsement, could boost or constrain the Green share relative to the 10.4% recorded in 2024. Scheduled polling on 8 October leaves room for further shifts based on campaign intensity and voter mobilization.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato<20% 24%
30-35% 22%
20-25% 21%
25-30% 20%
NUOVO
NUOVO
8 ott 2026
<20%
24%
20-25%
21%
25-30%
20%
30-35%
22%
35-40%
14%
40%+
11%
<20% 24%
30-35% 22%
20-25% 21%
25-30% 20%
NUOVO
NUOVO
8 ott 2026
<20%
$28 Vol.
24%
20-25%
$39 Vol.
21%
25-30%
$39 Vol.
20%
30-35%
$58 Vol.
22%
35-40%
$19 Vol.
14%
40%+
$39 Vol.
11%
A by-election for the United Kingdom parliamentary constituency of Holborn and St Pancras is scheduled to be held on October 8, 2026, following the resignation of incumbent Sir Keir Starmer.
This market will resolve according to the percentage of valid votes received by the Green Party candidate in the Holborn and St Pancras by-election.
The percentage will be measured as the number of valid votes received by the Green Party candidate divided by the total number of valid votes cast in the by-election.
Valid vote percentages will be counted only where the official results attribute them to the candidate standing for the Green Party. Votes attributed to other candidates or party designations will not count, regardless of endorsements or electoral cooperation.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the results of this by-election are not definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the results of this by-election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as published by Camden Council (https://www.camden.gov.uk/).Trader sentiment on Green vote share ranges in the Holborn and St Pancras by-election remains closely matched across multiple bands, reflecting uncertainty over the party's ability to convert recent local momentum into national parliamentary support. Zack Polanski's selection as candidate has focused attention on the seat vacated by Keir Starmer, with projections and local election data from May 2026 showing the Greens achieving around 28% in Camden wards against Labour's lead. By-election dynamics, including lower turnout, targeted campaigning, and the absence of a strong independent challenger following Andrew Feinstein's endorsement, could boost or constrain the Green share relative to the 10.4% recorded in 2024. Scheduled polling on 8 October leaves room for further shifts based on campaign intensity and voter mobilization.
A by-election for the United Kingdom parliamentary constituency of Holborn and St Pancras is scheduled to be held on October 8, 2026, following the resignation of incumbent Sir Keir Starmer.
This market will resolve according to the percentage of valid votes received by the Green Party candidate in the Holborn and St Pancras by-election.
The percentage will be measured as the number of valid votes received by the Green Party candidate divided by the total number of valid votes cast in the by-election.
Valid vote percentages will be counted only where the official results attribute them to the candidate standing for the Green Party. Votes attributed to other candidates or party designations will not count, regardless of endorsements or electoral cooperation.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the results of this by-election are not definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the results of this by-election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as published by Camden Council (https://www.camden.gov.uk/).
This market will resolve according to the percentage of valid votes received by the Green Party candidate in the Holborn and St Pancras by-election.
The percentage will be measured as the number of valid votes received by the Green Party candidate divided by the total number of valid votes cast in the by-election.
Valid vote percentages will be counted only where the official results attribute them to the candidate standing for the Green Party. Votes attributed to other candidates or party designations will not count, regardless of endorsements or electoral cooperation.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the results of this by-election are not definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the results of this by-election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as published by Camden Council (https://www.camden.gov.uk/).
Mercato aperto: Sep 14, 2026, 6:50 PM ET
Volume
$222Data di fine
8 ott 2026Mercato aperto
Sep 14, 2026, 6:50 PM ETRisolutore
0x69c47De9D...A by-election for the United Kingdom parliamentary constituency of Holborn and St Pancras is scheduled to be held on October 8, 2026, following the resignation of incumbent Sir Keir Starmer.
This market will resolve according to the percentage of valid votes received by the Green Party candidate in the Holborn and St Pancras by-election.
The percentage will be measured as the number of valid votes received by the Green Party candidate divided by the total number of valid votes cast in the by-election.
Valid vote percentages will be counted only where the official results attribute them to the candidate standing for the Green Party. Votes attributed to other candidates or party designations will not count, regardless of endorsements or electoral cooperation.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the results of this by-election are not definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the results of this by-election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as published by Camden Council (https://www.camden.gov.uk/).Trader sentiment on Green vote share ranges in the Holborn and St Pancras by-election remains closely matched across multiple bands, reflecting uncertainty over the party's ability to convert recent local momentum into national parliamentary support. Zack Polanski's selection as candidate has focused attention on the seat vacated by Keir Starmer, with projections and local election data from May 2026 showing the Greens achieving around 28% in Camden wards against Labour's lead. By-election dynamics, including lower turnout, targeted campaigning, and the absence of a strong independent challenger following Andrew Feinstein's endorsement, could boost or constrain the Green share relative to the 10.4% recorded in 2024. Scheduled polling on 8 October leaves room for further shifts based on campaign intensity and voter mobilization.
A by-election for the United Kingdom parliamentary constituency of Holborn and St Pancras is scheduled to be held on October 8, 2026, following the resignation of incumbent Sir Keir Starmer.
This market will resolve according to the percentage of valid votes received by the Green Party candidate in the Holborn and St Pancras by-election.
The percentage will be measured as the number of valid votes received by the Green Party candidate divided by the total number of valid votes cast in the by-election.
Valid vote percentages will be counted only where the official results attribute them to the candidate standing for the Green Party. Votes attributed to other candidates or party designations will not count, regardless of endorsements or electoral cooperation.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the results of this by-election are not definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the results of this by-election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as published by Camden Council (https://www.camden.gov.uk/).
This market will resolve according to the percentage of valid votes received by the Green Party candidate in the Holborn and St Pancras by-election.
The percentage will be measured as the number of valid votes received by the Green Party candidate divided by the total number of valid votes cast in the by-election.
Valid vote percentages will be counted only where the official results attribute them to the candidate standing for the Green Party. Votes attributed to other candidates or party designations will not count, regardless of endorsements or electoral cooperation.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the results of this by-election are not definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the results of this by-election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as published by Camden Council (https://www.camden.gov.uk/).
Volume
$222Data di fine
8 ott 2026Mercato aperto
Sep 14, 2026, 6:50 PM ETRisolutore
0x69c47De9D...Trader sentiment on Green vote share ranges in the Holborn and St Pancras by-election remains closely matched across multiple bands, reflecting uncertainty over the party's ability to convert recent local momentum into national parliamentary support. Zack Polanski's selection as candidate has focused attention on the seat vacated by Keir Starmer, with projections and local election data from May 2026 showing the Greens achieving around 28% in Camden wards against Labour's lead. By-election dynamics, including lower turnout, targeted campaigning, and the absence of a strong independent challenger following Andrew Feinstein's endorsement, could boost or constrain the Green share relative to the 10.4% recorded in 2024. Scheduled polling on 8 October leaves room for further shifts based on campaign intensity and voter mobilization.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · AggiornatoCorrelati
Il candidato del Partito Laburista otterrà il 35-40% dei voti nelle elezioni suppletive di Holborn e St Pancras?
25%
Sì
Il candidato laburista vincerà le elezioni suppletive di Holborn e St Pancras con un margine del 15% o più?
32%
Sì
Sagal Abdi-Wali vincerà le elezioni suppletive di Holborn e St Pancras?
78%
Sì
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