Recent Camden local election results showed the Greens reaching 28% locally against Labour's 39%, narrowing the gap from the 2024 general election where the party took 10.4% behind an independent challenger. With Green leader Zack Polanski as candidate and endorsement from that independent, traders see potential consolidation of left-leaning support on issues including housing, energy policy, and foreign affairs. The October 8 poll's by-election dynamics—lower turnout and protest voting—create uncertainty around whether the Greens can hold or expand that local base versus Labour's organizational edge under its new national leadership. This keeps multiple 20-35% brackets closely priced as the outcome hinges on final-week mobilization and vote splitting with minor parties.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato<20% 24%
30-35% 22%
20-25% 21%
25-30% 20%
NUOVO
NUOVO
8 ott 2026
<20%
24%
20-25%
21%
25-30%
20%
30-35%
22%
35-40%
14%
40%+
11%
<20% 24%
30-35% 22%
20-25% 21%
25-30% 20%
NUOVO
NUOVO
8 ott 2026
<20%
$28 Vol.
24%
20-25%
$39 Vol.
21%
25-30%
$39 Vol.
20%
30-35%
$58 Vol.
22%
35-40%
$19 Vol.
14%
40%+
$39 Vol.
11%
A by-election for the United Kingdom parliamentary constituency of Holborn and St Pancras is scheduled to be held on October 8, 2026, following the resignation of incumbent Sir Keir Starmer.
This market will resolve according to the percentage of valid votes received by the Green Party candidate in the Holborn and St Pancras by-election.
The percentage will be measured as the number of valid votes received by the Green Party candidate divided by the total number of valid votes cast in the by-election.
Valid vote percentages will be counted only where the official results attribute them to the candidate standing for the Green Party. Votes attributed to other candidates or party designations will not count, regardless of endorsements or electoral cooperation.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the results of this by-election are not definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the results of this by-election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as published by Camden Council (https://www.camden.gov.uk/).Recent Camden local election results showed the Greens reaching 28% locally against Labour's 39%, narrowing the gap from the 2024 general election where the party took 10.4% behind an independent challenger. With Green leader Zack Polanski as candidate and endorsement from that independent, traders see potential consolidation of left-leaning support on issues including housing, energy policy, and foreign affairs. The October 8 poll's by-election dynamics—lower turnout and protest voting—create uncertainty around whether the Greens can hold or expand that local base versus Labour's organizational edge under its new national leadership. This keeps multiple 20-35% brackets closely priced as the outcome hinges on final-week mobilization and vote splitting with minor parties.
A by-election for the United Kingdom parliamentary constituency of Holborn and St Pancras is scheduled to be held on October 8, 2026, following the resignation of incumbent Sir Keir Starmer.
This market will resolve according to the percentage of valid votes received by the Green Party candidate in the Holborn and St Pancras by-election.
The percentage will be measured as the number of valid votes received by the Green Party candidate divided by the total number of valid votes cast in the by-election.
Valid vote percentages will be counted only where the official results attribute them to the candidate standing for the Green Party. Votes attributed to other candidates or party designations will not count, regardless of endorsements or electoral cooperation.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the results of this by-election are not definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the results of this by-election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as published by Camden Council (https://www.camden.gov.uk/).
This market will resolve according to the percentage of valid votes received by the Green Party candidate in the Holborn and St Pancras by-election.
The percentage will be measured as the number of valid votes received by the Green Party candidate divided by the total number of valid votes cast in the by-election.
Valid vote percentages will be counted only where the official results attribute them to the candidate standing for the Green Party. Votes attributed to other candidates or party designations will not count, regardless of endorsements or electoral cooperation.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the results of this by-election are not definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the results of this by-election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as published by Camden Council (https://www.camden.gov.uk/).
Mercato aperto: Sep 14, 2026, 6:50 PM ET
Volume
$222Data di fine
8 ott 2026Mercato aperto
Sep 14, 2026, 6:50 PM ETRisolutore
0x69c47De9D...A by-election for the United Kingdom parliamentary constituency of Holborn and St Pancras is scheduled to be held on October 8, 2026, following the resignation of incumbent Sir Keir Starmer.
This market will resolve according to the percentage of valid votes received by the Green Party candidate in the Holborn and St Pancras by-election.
The percentage will be measured as the number of valid votes received by the Green Party candidate divided by the total number of valid votes cast in the by-election.
Valid vote percentages will be counted only where the official results attribute them to the candidate standing for the Green Party. Votes attributed to other candidates or party designations will not count, regardless of endorsements or electoral cooperation.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the results of this by-election are not definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the results of this by-election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as published by Camden Council (https://www.camden.gov.uk/).Recent Camden local election results showed the Greens reaching 28% locally against Labour's 39%, narrowing the gap from the 2024 general election where the party took 10.4% behind an independent challenger. With Green leader Zack Polanski as candidate and endorsement from that independent, traders see potential consolidation of left-leaning support on issues including housing, energy policy, and foreign affairs. The October 8 poll's by-election dynamics—lower turnout and protest voting—create uncertainty around whether the Greens can hold or expand that local base versus Labour's organizational edge under its new national leadership. This keeps multiple 20-35% brackets closely priced as the outcome hinges on final-week mobilization and vote splitting with minor parties.
A by-election for the United Kingdom parliamentary constituency of Holborn and St Pancras is scheduled to be held on October 8, 2026, following the resignation of incumbent Sir Keir Starmer.
This market will resolve according to the percentage of valid votes received by the Green Party candidate in the Holborn and St Pancras by-election.
The percentage will be measured as the number of valid votes received by the Green Party candidate divided by the total number of valid votes cast in the by-election.
Valid vote percentages will be counted only where the official results attribute them to the candidate standing for the Green Party. Votes attributed to other candidates or party designations will not count, regardless of endorsements or electoral cooperation.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the results of this by-election are not definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the results of this by-election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as published by Camden Council (https://www.camden.gov.uk/).
This market will resolve according to the percentage of valid votes received by the Green Party candidate in the Holborn and St Pancras by-election.
The percentage will be measured as the number of valid votes received by the Green Party candidate divided by the total number of valid votes cast in the by-election.
Valid vote percentages will be counted only where the official results attribute them to the candidate standing for the Green Party. Votes attributed to other candidates or party designations will not count, regardless of endorsements or electoral cooperation.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the results of this by-election are not definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the results of this by-election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as published by Camden Council (https://www.camden.gov.uk/).
Volume
$222Data di fine
8 ott 2026Mercato aperto
Sep 14, 2026, 6:50 PM ETRisolutore
0x69c47De9D...Recent Camden local election results showed the Greens reaching 28% locally against Labour's 39%, narrowing the gap from the 2024 general election where the party took 10.4% behind an independent challenger. With Green leader Zack Polanski as candidate and endorsement from that independent, traders see potential consolidation of left-leaning support on issues including housing, energy policy, and foreign affairs. The October 8 poll's by-election dynamics—lower turnout and protest voting—create uncertainty around whether the Greens can hold or expand that local base versus Labour's organizational edge under its new national leadership. This keeps multiple 20-35% brackets closely priced as the outcome hinges on final-week mobilization and vote splitting with minor parties.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · AggiornatoCorrelati
Il candidato del Partito Laburista otterrà il 35-40% dei voti nelle elezioni suppletive di Holborn e St Pancras?
25%
Sì
Il candidato laburista vincerà le elezioni suppletive di Holborn e St Pancras con un margine del 15% o più?
37%
Sì
Sagal Abdi-Wali vincerà le elezioni suppletive di Holborn e St Pancras?
78%
Sì
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