The 2.0–2.5% band holds the highest implied probability at 55% because FOMC median projections and private forecasts cluster around 2.2% for full-year 2026 real GDP growth on a Q4/Q4 basis. Recent data show Q2 expansion slowing to a 1.5% annualized rate from 2.1% in Q1, driven by softer government spending and investment even as consumer outlays strengthened. Elevated inflation—headline CPI near 3.4% year-over-year with energy pressures from Middle East supply shocks—has prompted the Fed to signal potential rate hikes, supporting a baseline of moderate rather than robust expansion. The unemployment rate near 4.1% and stable labor demand further anchor expectations within this range. Key near-term catalysts include the September 16 FOMC Summary of Economic Projections and final Q2 GDP release on September 30.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato2,0–2,5% 55%
1,5–2,0% 15.2%
>2,5% 10.7%
<0,5% 3.8%
$67,983 Vol.
$67,983 Vol.
28 gen 2027
<0,5%
4%
0,5–1,0%
1%
1,0–1,5%
1%
1,5–2,0%
15%
2,0–2,5%
55%
>2,5%
11%
2,0–2,5% 55%
1,5–2,0% 15.2%
>2,5% 10.7%
<0,5% 3.8%
$67,983 Vol.
$67,983 Vol.
28 gen 2027
<0,5%
$7,983 Vol.
4%
0,5–1,0%
$17,634 Vol.
1%
1,0–1,5%
$4,234 Vol.
1%
1,5–2,0%
$8,506 Vol.
15%
2,0–2,5%
$12,753 Vol.
55%
>2,5%
$16,872 Vol.
11%
This market will resolve according to the seasonally adjusted real GDP growth rate for the United States in 2026, as reported in the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) "Advance Estimate" release for Q4 of 2026, estimated to be released in January 2027.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product
Note: The relevant data will be the full-year real GDP growth rate as stated in the advance estimate, typically expressed as the percentage change from the annual level in 2025 to the annual level in 2026. Any revisions to this figure made after the release of the advance estimate will not be considered for this market's resolution.The 2.0–2.5% band holds the highest implied probability at 55% because FOMC median projections and private forecasts cluster around 2.2% for full-year 2026 real GDP growth on a Q4/Q4 basis. Recent data show Q2 expansion slowing to a 1.5% annualized rate from 2.1% in Q1, driven by softer government spending and investment even as consumer outlays strengthened. Elevated inflation—headline CPI near 3.4% year-over-year with energy pressures from Middle East supply shocks—has prompted the Fed to signal potential rate hikes, supporting a baseline of moderate rather than robust expansion. The unemployment rate near 4.1% and stable labor demand further anchor expectations within this range. Key near-term catalysts include the September 16 FOMC Summary of Economic Projections and final Q2 GDP release on September 30.
This market will resolve according to the seasonally adjusted real GDP growth rate for the United States in 2026, as reported in the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) "Advance Estimate" release for Q4 of 2026, estimated to be released in January 2027.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product
Note: The relevant data will be the full-year real GDP growth rate as stated in the advance estimate, typically expressed as the percentage change from the annual level in 2025 to the annual level in 2026. Any revisions to this figure made after the release of the advance estimate will not be considered for this market's resolution.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product
Note: The relevant data will be the full-year real GDP growth rate as stated in the advance estimate, typically expressed as the percentage change from the annual level in 2025 to the annual level in 2026. Any revisions to this figure made after the release of the advance estimate will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Mercato aperto: Nov 12, 2025, 6:17 PM ET
Volume
$67,983Data di fine
29 gen 2027Mercato aperto
Nov 12, 2025, 6:17 PM ETRisolutore
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the seasonally adjusted real GDP growth rate for the United States in 2026, as reported in the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) "Advance Estimate" release for Q4 of 2026, estimated to be released in January 2027.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product
Note: The relevant data will be the full-year real GDP growth rate as stated in the advance estimate, typically expressed as the percentage change from the annual level in 2025 to the annual level in 2026. Any revisions to this figure made after the release of the advance estimate will not be considered for this market's resolution.The 2.0–2.5% band holds the highest implied probability at 55% because FOMC median projections and private forecasts cluster around 2.2% for full-year 2026 real GDP growth on a Q4/Q4 basis. Recent data show Q2 expansion slowing to a 1.5% annualized rate from 2.1% in Q1, driven by softer government spending and investment even as consumer outlays strengthened. Elevated inflation—headline CPI near 3.4% year-over-year with energy pressures from Middle East supply shocks—has prompted the Fed to signal potential rate hikes, supporting a baseline of moderate rather than robust expansion. The unemployment rate near 4.1% and stable labor demand further anchor expectations within this range. Key near-term catalysts include the September 16 FOMC Summary of Economic Projections and final Q2 GDP release on September 30.
This market will resolve according to the seasonally adjusted real GDP growth rate for the United States in 2026, as reported in the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) "Advance Estimate" release for Q4 of 2026, estimated to be released in January 2027.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product
Note: The relevant data will be the full-year real GDP growth rate as stated in the advance estimate, typically expressed as the percentage change from the annual level in 2025 to the annual level in 2026. Any revisions to this figure made after the release of the advance estimate will not be considered for this market's resolution.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product
Note: The relevant data will be the full-year real GDP growth rate as stated in the advance estimate, typically expressed as the percentage change from the annual level in 2025 to the annual level in 2026. Any revisions to this figure made after the release of the advance estimate will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volume
$67,983Data di fine
29 gen 2027Mercato aperto
Nov 12, 2025, 6:17 PM ETRisolutore
0x2F5e3684c...The 2.0–2.5% band holds the highest implied probability at 55% because FOMC median projections and private forecasts cluster around 2.2% for full-year 2026 real GDP growth on a Q4/Q4 basis. Recent data show Q2 expansion slowing to a 1.5% annualized rate from 2.1% in Q1, driven by softer government spending and investment even as consumer outlays strengthened. Elevated inflation—headline CPI near 3.4% year-over-year with energy pressures from Middle East supply shocks—has prompted the Fed to signal potential rate hikes, supporting a baseline of moderate rather than robust expansion. The unemployment rate near 4.1% and stable labor demand further anchor expectations within this range. Key near-term catalysts include the September 16 FOMC Summary of Economic Projections and final Q2 GDP release on September 30.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato
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