China’s 2026 GDP growth consensus centers on the 4.0–5.0% range, aligning with official targets of 4.5–5% and major forecasts from the World Bank (4.4%), IMF (recently lifted to 4.6%), and others near 4.5–4.8%. First-half growth reached 4.7%, though Q2 slowed to 4.3% amid soft domestic demand, continued property adjustment, and subdued consumption and private investment. Resilient exports—particularly high-tech and AI-related goods—have provided key support, with August shipments rising sharply, while fiscal stimulus and policy measures aim to bolster activity in the second half. Persistent imbalances, including weak retail sales and fixed-asset investment, limit upside risks, keeping trader probabilities heavily weighted toward moderate expansion within the government’s stated band.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato4,0–5,0% 90%
5,0–6,0% 5.9%
3,0–4,0% 1.1%
8,0–9,0% 1.0%
$900,170 Vol.
$900,170 Vol.
30 gen 2027
<1,0%
<1%
1,0–2,0%
<1%
2,0–3,0%
<1%
3,0–4,0%
1%
4,0–5,0%
90%
5,0–6,0%
6%
6,0-7,0%
<1%
7,0–8,0%
<1%
8,0–9,0%
1%
9,0%+
1%
4,0–5,0% 90%
5,0–6,0% 5.9%
3,0–4,0% 1.1%
8,0–9,0% 1.0%
$900,170 Vol.
$900,170 Vol.
30 gen 2027
<1,0%
$68,058 Vol.
<1%
1,0–2,0%
$75,379 Vol.
<1%
2,0–3,0%
$45,830 Vol.
<1%
3,0–4,0%
$81,476 Vol.
1%
4,0–5,0%
$223,012 Vol.
90%
5,0–6,0%
$80,873 Vol.
6%
6,0-7,0%
$87,943 Vol.
<1%
7,0–8,0%
$65,353 Vol.
<1%
8,0–9,0%
$54,761 Vol.
1%
9,0%+
$117,484 Vol.
1%
This market will resolve according to China's Y/Y Growth Rate of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) for the full year of 2026, as reported in the "Preliminary Accounting Results of GDP" release for the fourth quarter and full year of 2026, scheduled for some time in January, 2027.
The relevant figure may be found in the table titled “Preliminary Accounting Results of GDP for the Fourth Quarter and Full Year of 2026” under “Growth Rate Y/Y (%)” in the row “GDP” and the column “Year 2026”. The annual GDP Y/Y growth rate will still be considered if China’s GDP reporting format changes.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/
If no figure for the full year 2026 Y/Y GDP growth rate is reported, this market will resolve according to the Y/Y growth rate for Q4 2026. If no data for the specified year and quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.China’s 2026 GDP growth consensus centers on the 4.0–5.0% range, aligning with official targets of 4.5–5% and major forecasts from the World Bank (4.4%), IMF (recently lifted to 4.6%), and others near 4.5–4.8%. First-half growth reached 4.7%, though Q2 slowed to 4.3% amid soft domestic demand, continued property adjustment, and subdued consumption and private investment. Resilient exports—particularly high-tech and AI-related goods—have provided key support, with August shipments rising sharply, while fiscal stimulus and policy measures aim to bolster activity in the second half. Persistent imbalances, including weak retail sales and fixed-asset investment, limit upside risks, keeping trader probabilities heavily weighted toward moderate expansion within the government’s stated band.
This market will resolve according to China's Y/Y Growth Rate of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) for the full year of 2026, as reported in the "Preliminary Accounting Results of GDP" release for the fourth quarter and full year of 2026, scheduled for some time in January, 2027.
The relevant figure may be found in the table titled “Preliminary Accounting Results of GDP for the Fourth Quarter and Full Year of 2026” under “Growth Rate Y/Y (%)” in the row “GDP” and the column “Year 2026”. The annual GDP Y/Y growth rate will still be considered if China’s GDP reporting format changes.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/
If no figure for the full year 2026 Y/Y GDP growth rate is reported, this market will resolve according to the Y/Y growth rate for Q4 2026. If no data for the specified year and quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The relevant figure may be found in the table titled “Preliminary Accounting Results of GDP for the Fourth Quarter and Full Year of 2026” under “Growth Rate Y/Y (%)” in the row “GDP” and the column “Year 2026”. The annual GDP Y/Y growth rate will still be considered if China’s GDP reporting format changes.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/
If no figure for the full year 2026 Y/Y GDP growth rate is reported, this market will resolve according to the Y/Y growth rate for Q4 2026. If no data for the specified year and quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Mercato aperto: Jan 21, 2026, 6:18 PM ET
Volume
$900,170Data di fine
31 gen 2027Mercato aperto
Jan 21, 2026, 6:18 PM ETRisolutore
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to China's Y/Y Growth Rate of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) for the full year of 2026, as reported in the "Preliminary Accounting Results of GDP" release for the fourth quarter and full year of 2026, scheduled for some time in January, 2027.
The relevant figure may be found in the table titled “Preliminary Accounting Results of GDP for the Fourth Quarter and Full Year of 2026” under “Growth Rate Y/Y (%)” in the row “GDP” and the column “Year 2026”. The annual GDP Y/Y growth rate will still be considered if China’s GDP reporting format changes.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/
If no figure for the full year 2026 Y/Y GDP growth rate is reported, this market will resolve according to the Y/Y growth rate for Q4 2026. If no data for the specified year and quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.China’s 2026 GDP growth consensus centers on the 4.0–5.0% range, aligning with official targets of 4.5–5% and major forecasts from the World Bank (4.4%), IMF (recently lifted to 4.6%), and others near 4.5–4.8%. First-half growth reached 4.7%, though Q2 slowed to 4.3% amid soft domestic demand, continued property adjustment, and subdued consumption and private investment. Resilient exports—particularly high-tech and AI-related goods—have provided key support, with August shipments rising sharply, while fiscal stimulus and policy measures aim to bolster activity in the second half. Persistent imbalances, including weak retail sales and fixed-asset investment, limit upside risks, keeping trader probabilities heavily weighted toward moderate expansion within the government’s stated band.
This market will resolve according to China's Y/Y Growth Rate of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) for the full year of 2026, as reported in the "Preliminary Accounting Results of GDP" release for the fourth quarter and full year of 2026, scheduled for some time in January, 2027.
The relevant figure may be found in the table titled “Preliminary Accounting Results of GDP for the Fourth Quarter and Full Year of 2026” under “Growth Rate Y/Y (%)” in the row “GDP” and the column “Year 2026”. The annual GDP Y/Y growth rate will still be considered if China’s GDP reporting format changes.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/
If no figure for the full year 2026 Y/Y GDP growth rate is reported, this market will resolve according to the Y/Y growth rate for Q4 2026. If no data for the specified year and quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The relevant figure may be found in the table titled “Preliminary Accounting Results of GDP for the Fourth Quarter and Full Year of 2026” under “Growth Rate Y/Y (%)” in the row “GDP” and the column “Year 2026”. The annual GDP Y/Y growth rate will still be considered if China’s GDP reporting format changes.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/
If no figure for the full year 2026 Y/Y GDP growth rate is reported, this market will resolve according to the Y/Y growth rate for Q4 2026. If no data for the specified year and quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volume
$900,170Data di fine
31 gen 2027Mercato aperto
Jan 21, 2026, 6:18 PM ETRisolutore
0x2F5e3684c...China’s 2026 GDP growth consensus centers on the 4.0–5.0% range, aligning with official targets of 4.5–5% and major forecasts from the World Bank (4.4%), IMF (recently lifted to 4.6%), and others near 4.5–4.8%. First-half growth reached 4.7%, though Q2 slowed to 4.3% amid soft domestic demand, continued property adjustment, and subdued consumption and private investment. Resilient exports—particularly high-tech and AI-related goods—have provided key support, with August shipments rising sharply, while fiscal stimulus and policy measures aim to bolster activity in the second half. Persistent imbalances, including weak retail sales and fixed-asset investment, limit upside risks, keeping trader probabilities heavily weighted toward moderate expansion within the government’s stated band.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato
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