Recent polling from mid-September places Lula’s first-round support in the mid-to-high 30s, with figures ranging from 36% to 42% across Datafolha, Quaest, Nexus, MDA, and Indexa surveys conducted between September 8 and 13. Flávio Bolsonaro trails in the low-to-mid 30s, while smaller candidates split the remainder and undecided or blank ballots remain in double digits. The race stays close because both frontrunners carry elevated rejection rates near 55%, government approval has held steady around 43%, and late shifts in turnout or consolidation of centrist and evangelical voters could move Lula’s share across the 38–44% thresholds priced by traders. The October 4 first-round vote and any subsequent runoff dynamics continue to anchor the market’s narrow spread between the 41–44% and 44%+ bins.