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Politica·Brasile

Primo turno delle elezioni presidenziali in Brasile: 1° posto a Bahia

icon for Primo turno delle elezioni presidenziali in Brasile: 1° posto a Bahia
Politica·Brasile

Primo turno delle elezioni presidenziali in Brasile: 1° posto a Bahia

Lula 96.0%

Flavio Bolsonaro 1.3%

Scrittore Augusto Cury <1%

Pablo Marçal <1%

Polymarket
NUOVO

Lula 96.0%

Flavio Bolsonaro 1.3%

Scrittore Augusto Cury <1%

Pablo Marçal <1%

Polymarket
NUOVO
icon for Lula

Lula

$1,415 Vol.

96%

icon for Flavio Bolsonaro

Flavio Bolsonaro

$192 Vol.

1%

icon for Scrittore Augusto Cury

Scrittore Augusto Cury

$192 Vol.

1%

icon for Pablo Marçal

Pablo Marçal

$192 Vol.

1%

icon for Zema

Zema

$180 Vol.

1%

icon for Hertz Dias

Hertz Dias

$188 Vol.

1%

icon for Clariana Barao

Clariana Barao

$187 Vol.

1%

icon for Ronaldo Caiado

Ronaldo Caiado

$192 Vol.

<1%

icon for Rui Costa Pimenta

Rui Costa Pimenta

$180 Vol.

<1%

icon for Samara

Samara

$180 Vol.

<1%

icon for Veterinário Wilson Grassi

Veterinário Wilson Grassi

$180 Vol.

<1%

icon for Edmilson Costa

Edmilson Costa

$192 Vol.

<1%

icon for Renan Santos

Renan Santos

$168 Vol.

<1%

A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Bahia, Brazil on October 4, 2026. This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election from Bahia. Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won in Bahia. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking. If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).Lula maintains a commanding position in Bahia for first place in the October 2026 presidential first round due to the state's status as a core PT stronghold in the Northeast, where he secured nearly 70% of the vote in 2022 and won all but two municipalities. Regional voting patterns tied to federal social programs and consistent local PT governance reinforce this edge, with state-level polling showing Lula far ahead of national challengers such as Flávio Bolsonaro. Trader consensus at 96% reflects these structural factors and limited recent shifts in Bahian voter intentions. A realistic challenge would require substantial erosion of PT support through major economic discontent, opposition realignment around a single candidate, or late developments altering turnout among traditional bases ahead of election day.

A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Bahia, Brazil on October 4, 2026.

This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election from Bahia.

Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won in Bahia. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.

If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".

This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
Volume
$3,639
Data di fine
4 ott 2026
Mercato aperto
Aug 17, 2026, 6:26 AM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Bahia, Brazil on October 4, 2026. This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election from Bahia. Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won in Bahia. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking. If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Bahia, Brazil on October 4, 2026. This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election from Bahia. Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won in Bahia. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking. If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).Lula maintains a commanding position in Bahia for first place in the October 2026 presidential first round due to the state's status as a core PT stronghold in the Northeast, where he secured nearly 70% of the vote in 2022 and won all but two municipalities. Regional voting patterns tied to federal social programs and consistent local PT governance reinforce this edge, with state-level polling showing Lula far ahead of national challengers such as Flávio Bolsonaro. Trader consensus at 96% reflects these structural factors and limited recent shifts in Bahian voter intentions. A realistic challenge would require substantial erosion of PT support through major economic discontent, opposition realignment around a single candidate, or late developments altering turnout among traditional bases ahead of election day.

A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Bahia, Brazil on October 4, 2026.

This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election from Bahia.

Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won in Bahia. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.

If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".

This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
Volume
$3,639
Data di fine
4 ott 2026
Mercato aperto
Aug 17, 2026, 6:26 AM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Bahia, Brazil on October 4, 2026. This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election from Bahia. Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won in Bahia. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking. If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).

Correlati

icon for Flavio Bolsonaro otterrà il maggior numero di voti alle prossime elezioni presidenziali in Brasile dal Paraná?

Flavio Bolsonaro otterrà il maggior numero di voti alle prossime elezioni presidenziali in Brasile dal Paraná?

94%
Sì
icon for Flavio Bolsonaro otterrà il maggior numero di voti alle prossime elezioni presidenziali brasiliane nel Distretto Federale?

Flavio Bolsonaro otterrà il maggior numero di voti alle prossime elezioni presidenziali brasiliane nel Distretto Federale?

72%
Sì
icon for Lula otterrà il maggior numero di voti alle prossime elezioni presidenziali brasiliane in Paraíba?

Lula otterrà il maggior numero di voti alle prossime elezioni presidenziali brasiliane in Paraíba?

96%
Sì

Fai attenzione ai link esterni.

Domande frequenti

"Primo turno delle elezioni presidenziali in Brasile: 1° posto a Bahia" è un mercato predittivo su Polymarket con 13 possibili esiti dove i trader comprano e vendono azioni in base a ciò che credono accadrà. L'esito attualmente in testa è "Lula" a 96%, seguito da "Flavio Bolsonaro" a 1%. I prezzi riflettono probabilità aggregate in tempo reale. Ad esempio, un'azione quotata a 96¢ implica che il mercato assegna collettivamente una probabilità di 96% a quell'esito. Queste quote cambiano continuamente man mano che i trader reagiscono a nuovi sviluppi e informazioni. Le azioni nell'esito corretto possono essere riscattate per $1 ciascuna alla risoluzione del mercato.

"Primo turno delle elezioni presidenziali in Brasile: 1° posto a Bahia" è un mercato appena creato su Polymarket, lanciato il Aug 17, 2026. Come mercato nuovo, questa è la tua opportunità di essere tra i primi trader a stabilire le quote e i segnali di prezzo iniziali del mercato. Puoi anche aggiungere questa pagina ai preferiti per monitorare il volume e l'attività di trading man mano che il mercato guadagna visibilità.

Per fare trading su "Primo turno delle elezioni presidenziali in Brasile: 1° posto a Bahia", esplora i 13 esiti disponibili elencati in questa pagina. Ogni esito mostra un prezzo corrente che rappresenta la probabilità implicita del mercato. Per prendere una posizione, seleziona l'esito che ritieni più probabile, scegli "Sì" per fare trading a suo favore o "No" per fare trading contro di esso, inserisci il tuo importo e clicca "Trading". Se il tuo esito scelto è corretto alla risoluzione del mercato, le tue azioni "Sì" pagano $1 ciascuna. Se è errato, pagano $0. Puoi anche vendere le tue azioni in qualsiasi momento prima della risoluzione se vuoi consolidare un profitto o limitare una perdita.

L'attuale favorito per "Primo turno delle elezioni presidenziali in Brasile: 1° posto a Bahia" è "Lula" a 96%, il che significa che il mercato assegna una probabilità di 96% a quell'esito. L'esito successivo più vicino è "Flavio Bolsonaro" a 1%. Queste quote si aggiornano in tempo reale man mano che i trader comprano e vendono azioni, quindi riflettono l'ultima visione collettiva di ciò che è più probabile che accada. Controlla frequentemente o aggiungi questa pagina ai preferiti per seguire come cambiano le quote man mano che emergono nuove informazioni.

Le regole di risoluzione per "Primo turno delle elezioni presidenziali in Brasile: 1° posto a Bahia" definiscono esattamente cosa deve accadere affinché ogni esito venga dichiarato vincitore — comprese le fonti di dati ufficiali utilizzate per determinare il risultato. Puoi consultare i criteri completi di risoluzione nella sezione "Regole" di questa pagina sopra i commenti. Ti consigliamo di leggere attentamente le regole prima di fare trading, poiché specificano le condizioni precise, i casi limite e le fonti che regolano come viene risolto questo mercato.