**Recent Berlin polls consistently show the CDU ahead of the Greens by 2–4 points ahead of the September 20, 2026 Abgeordnetenhaus election, supporting the 78.5% trader probability that the CDU receives more votes.** Latest surveys from INSA, Infratest dimap, Civey, and Forsa place the CDU at 18–20% and the Greens at 16–17%, with Die Linke leading or tied for first and the AfD close behind. The gap has held steady through summer polling despite volatility for other parties. The CDU’s position reflects its stronger performance in western districts and among moderate voters, while the Greens remain competitive in inner-city areas but have not closed the aggregate deficit. Candidate changes, including the CDU’s shift to Stefan Evers after Kai Wegner’s withdrawal and the Greens’ dual leadership ticket, have not altered the relative standings in available data. Traders appear to view the polling margin and historical patterns from the 2023 election as durable enough to make a Greens overtake unlikely in the final month.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · AggiornatoCDU
79% probabilità
NUOVO
NUOVO
20 set 2026
CDU
79% probabilità
NUOVO
NUOVO
20 set 2026
Parliamentary elections to elect the Abgeordnetenhaus of Berlin are scheduled to take place in Berlin on September 20, 2026.
This market will resolve to “CDU” if CDU wins more valid second votes (Zweitstimme) than Grüne in the specified election.
This market will resolve to “Grüne” if Grüne wins more valid second votes (Zweitstimme) than CDU in the specified election.
This market will resolve 50-50 if both CDU and Grüne receive exactly the same number of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) in the specified election.
This market will resolve solely based on the number of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) won by each specified party.
Valid second votes will be counted only where the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin) attributes them to the aforementioned parties. Votes attributed to other parties or electoral designations will not count, regardless of electoral cooperation, endorsements, coalition agreements, or subsequent parliamentary-group arrangements. If either party formally merges into a successor party before the election and does not contest separately, this market will resolve 50-50.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve 50-50.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin https://www.berlin.de/wahlen/).**Recent Berlin polls consistently show the CDU ahead of the Greens by 2–4 points ahead of the September 20, 2026 Abgeordnetenhaus election, supporting the 78.5% trader probability that the CDU receives more votes.**
Latest surveys from INSA, Infratest dimap, Civey, and Forsa place the CDU at 18–20% and the Greens at 16–17%, with Die Linke leading or tied for first and the AfD close behind. The gap has held steady through summer polling despite volatility for other parties.
The CDU’s position reflects its stronger performance in western districts and among moderate voters, while the Greens remain competitive in inner-city areas but have not closed the aggregate deficit. Candidate changes, including the CDU’s shift to Stefan Evers after Kai Wegner’s withdrawal and the Greens’ dual leadership ticket, have not altered the relative standings in available data.
Traders appear to view the polling margin and historical patterns from the 2023 election as durable enough to make a Greens overtake unlikely in the final month.
Parliamentary elections to elect the Abgeordnetenhaus of Berlin are scheduled to take place in Berlin on September 20, 2026.
This market will resolve to “CDU” if CDU wins more valid second votes (Zweitstimme) than Grüne in the specified election.
This market will resolve to “Grüne” if Grüne wins more valid second votes (Zweitstimme) than CDU in the specified election.
This market will resolve 50-50 if both CDU and Grüne receive exactly the same number of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) in the specified election.
This market will resolve solely based on the number of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) won by each specified party.
Valid second votes will be counted only where the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin) attributes them to the aforementioned parties. Votes attributed to other parties or electoral designations will not count, regardless of electoral cooperation, endorsements, coalition agreements, or subsequent parliamentary-group arrangements. If either party formally merges into a successor party before the election and does not contest separately, this market will resolve 50-50.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve 50-50.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin https://www.berlin.de/wahlen/).
This market will resolve to “CDU” if CDU wins more valid second votes (Zweitstimme) than Grüne in the specified election.
This market will resolve to “Grüne” if Grüne wins more valid second votes (Zweitstimme) than CDU in the specified election.
This market will resolve 50-50 if both CDU and Grüne receive exactly the same number of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) in the specified election.
This market will resolve solely based on the number of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) won by each specified party.
Valid second votes will be counted only where the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin) attributes them to the aforementioned parties. Votes attributed to other parties or electoral designations will not count, regardless of electoral cooperation, endorsements, coalition agreements, or subsequent parliamentary-group arrangements. If either party formally merges into a successor party before the election and does not contest separately, this market will resolve 50-50.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve 50-50.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin https://www.berlin.de/wahlen/).
Mercato aperto: Aug 20, 2026, 2:16 PM ET
Volume
$2,105Data di fine
20 set 2026Mercato aperto
Aug 20, 2026, 2:16 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Parliamentary elections to elect the Abgeordnetenhaus of Berlin are scheduled to take place in Berlin on September 20, 2026.
This market will resolve to “CDU” if CDU wins more valid second votes (Zweitstimme) than Grüne in the specified election.
This market will resolve to “Grüne” if Grüne wins more valid second votes (Zweitstimme) than CDU in the specified election.
This market will resolve 50-50 if both CDU and Grüne receive exactly the same number of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) in the specified election.
This market will resolve solely based on the number of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) won by each specified party.
Valid second votes will be counted only where the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin) attributes them to the aforementioned parties. Votes attributed to other parties or electoral designations will not count, regardless of electoral cooperation, endorsements, coalition agreements, or subsequent parliamentary-group arrangements. If either party formally merges into a successor party before the election and does not contest separately, this market will resolve 50-50.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve 50-50.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin https://www.berlin.de/wahlen/).**Recent Berlin polls consistently show the CDU ahead of the Greens by 2–4 points ahead of the September 20, 2026 Abgeordnetenhaus election, supporting the 78.5% trader probability that the CDU receives more votes.**
Latest surveys from INSA, Infratest dimap, Civey, and Forsa place the CDU at 18–20% and the Greens at 16–17%, with Die Linke leading or tied for first and the AfD close behind. The gap has held steady through summer polling despite volatility for other parties.
The CDU’s position reflects its stronger performance in western districts and among moderate voters, while the Greens remain competitive in inner-city areas but have not closed the aggregate deficit. Candidate changes, including the CDU’s shift to Stefan Evers after Kai Wegner’s withdrawal and the Greens’ dual leadership ticket, have not altered the relative standings in available data.
Traders appear to view the polling margin and historical patterns from the 2023 election as durable enough to make a Greens overtake unlikely in the final month.
Parliamentary elections to elect the Abgeordnetenhaus of Berlin are scheduled to take place in Berlin on September 20, 2026.
This market will resolve to “CDU” if CDU wins more valid second votes (Zweitstimme) than Grüne in the specified election.
This market will resolve to “Grüne” if Grüne wins more valid second votes (Zweitstimme) than CDU in the specified election.
This market will resolve 50-50 if both CDU and Grüne receive exactly the same number of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) in the specified election.
This market will resolve solely based on the number of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) won by each specified party.
Valid second votes will be counted only where the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin) attributes them to the aforementioned parties. Votes attributed to other parties or electoral designations will not count, regardless of electoral cooperation, endorsements, coalition agreements, or subsequent parliamentary-group arrangements. If either party formally merges into a successor party before the election and does not contest separately, this market will resolve 50-50.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve 50-50.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin https://www.berlin.de/wahlen/).
This market will resolve to “CDU” if CDU wins more valid second votes (Zweitstimme) than Grüne in the specified election.
This market will resolve to “Grüne” if Grüne wins more valid second votes (Zweitstimme) than CDU in the specified election.
This market will resolve 50-50 if both CDU and Grüne receive exactly the same number of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) in the specified election.
This market will resolve solely based on the number of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) won by each specified party.
Valid second votes will be counted only where the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin) attributes them to the aforementioned parties. Votes attributed to other parties or electoral designations will not count, regardless of electoral cooperation, endorsements, coalition agreements, or subsequent parliamentary-group arrangements. If either party formally merges into a successor party before the election and does not contest separately, this market will resolve 50-50.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve 50-50.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin https://www.berlin.de/wahlen/).
Volume
$2,105Data di fine
20 set 2026Mercato aperto
Aug 20, 2026, 2:16 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...**Recent Berlin polls consistently show the CDU ahead of the Greens by 2–4 points ahead of the September 20, 2026 Abgeordnetenhaus election, supporting the 78.5% trader probability that the CDU receives more votes.** Latest surveys from INSA, Infratest dimap, Civey, and Forsa place the CDU at 18–20% and the Greens at 16–17%, with Die Linke leading or tied for first and the AfD close behind. The gap has held steady through summer polling despite volatility for other parties. The CDU’s position reflects its stronger performance in western districts and among moderate voters, while the Greens remain competitive in inner-city areas but have not closed the aggregate deficit. Candidate changes, including the CDU’s shift to Stefan Evers after Kai Wegner’s withdrawal and the Greens’ dual leadership ticket, have not altered the relative standings in available data. Traders appear to view the polling margin and historical patterns from the 2023 election as durable enough to make a Greens overtake unlikely in the final month.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato
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