Trader consensus assigns an 78% implied probability to no change at the Bank of Japan's October meeting, reflecting expectations of a measured normalization path after the June hike to 1%. Persistent upside inflation risks tied to Middle East energy shocks, service-price gains, and yen weakness have prompted hawkish signals from Governor Ueda and board members, who emphasize data-dependent adjustments and greater attention to inflation overshoots. Markets price a potential 25-basis-point move higher in September as the nearer-term catalyst, with the October decision likely hinging on incoming CPI and growth data. This pricing aligns with the BoJ's stated focus on cumulative policy effects while keeping real rates accommodative relative to neutral estimates around 1.5-2%.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · AggiornatoNo change 78%
25 bps increase 20%
25 bps decrease <1%
50+ bps increase <1%
$68,546 Vol.
$68,546 Vol.
29 ott 2026
50+ bps decrease
<1%
25 bps decrease
1%
No change
78%
25 bps increase
20%
50+ bps increase
<1%
No change 78%
25 bps increase 20%
25 bps decrease <1%
50+ bps increase <1%
$68,546 Vol.
$68,546 Vol.
29 ott 2026
50+ bps decrease
$2,805 Vol.
<1%
25 bps decrease
$5,438 Vol.
1%
No change
$29,685 Vol.
78%
25 bps increase
$23,686 Vol.
20%
50+ bps increase
$6,931 Vol.
<1%
The Statement on Monetary Policy for the Bank of Japan's Monetary Policy meeting for October is scheduled to be released on October 30, 2026 (https://www.boj.or.jp/en/mopo/mpmsche_minu/index.htm).
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the short-term policy interest rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Bank of Japan's October 2026 meeting.
If the short-term policy interest rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Bank of Japan (https://www.boj.or.jp/en/mopo/mpmsche_minu/index.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market may resolve as soon as the Bank of Japan's statement for the specified meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.Trader consensus assigns an 78% implied probability to no change at the Bank of Japan's October meeting, reflecting expectations of a measured normalization path after the June hike to 1%. Persistent upside inflation risks tied to Middle East energy shocks, service-price gains, and yen weakness have prompted hawkish signals from Governor Ueda and board members, who emphasize data-dependent adjustments and greater attention to inflation overshoots. Markets price a potential 25-basis-point move higher in September as the nearer-term catalyst, with the October decision likely hinging on incoming CPI and growth data. This pricing aligns with the BoJ's stated focus on cumulative policy effects while keeping real rates accommodative relative to neutral estimates around 1.5-2%.
The Statement on Monetary Policy for the Bank of Japan's Monetary Policy meeting for October is scheduled to be released on October 30, 2026 (https://www.boj.or.jp/en/mopo/mpmsche_minu/index.htm).
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the short-term policy interest rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Bank of Japan's October 2026 meeting.
If the short-term policy interest rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Bank of Japan (https://www.boj.or.jp/en/mopo/mpmsche_minu/index.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market may resolve as soon as the Bank of Japan's statement for the specified meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the short-term policy interest rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Bank of Japan's October 2026 meeting.
If the short-term policy interest rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Bank of Japan (https://www.boj.or.jp/en/mopo/mpmsche_minu/index.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market may resolve as soon as the Bank of Japan's statement for the specified meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
Mercato aperto: Jul 31, 2026, 7:29 PM ET
Volume
$68,546Data di fine
30 ott 2026Mercato aperto
Jul 31, 2026, 7:29 PM ETRisolutore
0x69c47De9D...The Statement on Monetary Policy for the Bank of Japan's Monetary Policy meeting for October is scheduled to be released on October 30, 2026 (https://www.boj.or.jp/en/mopo/mpmsche_minu/index.htm).
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the short-term policy interest rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Bank of Japan's October 2026 meeting.
If the short-term policy interest rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Bank of Japan (https://www.boj.or.jp/en/mopo/mpmsche_minu/index.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market may resolve as soon as the Bank of Japan's statement for the specified meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.Trader consensus assigns an 78% implied probability to no change at the Bank of Japan's October meeting, reflecting expectations of a measured normalization path after the June hike to 1%. Persistent upside inflation risks tied to Middle East energy shocks, service-price gains, and yen weakness have prompted hawkish signals from Governor Ueda and board members, who emphasize data-dependent adjustments and greater attention to inflation overshoots. Markets price a potential 25-basis-point move higher in September as the nearer-term catalyst, with the October decision likely hinging on incoming CPI and growth data. This pricing aligns with the BoJ's stated focus on cumulative policy effects while keeping real rates accommodative relative to neutral estimates around 1.5-2%.
The Statement on Monetary Policy for the Bank of Japan's Monetary Policy meeting for October is scheduled to be released on October 30, 2026 (https://www.boj.or.jp/en/mopo/mpmsche_minu/index.htm).
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the short-term policy interest rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Bank of Japan's October 2026 meeting.
If the short-term policy interest rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Bank of Japan (https://www.boj.or.jp/en/mopo/mpmsche_minu/index.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market may resolve as soon as the Bank of Japan's statement for the specified meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the short-term policy interest rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Bank of Japan's October 2026 meeting.
If the short-term policy interest rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Bank of Japan (https://www.boj.or.jp/en/mopo/mpmsche_minu/index.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market may resolve as soon as the Bank of Japan's statement for the specified meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
Volume
$68,546Data di fine
30 ott 2026Mercato aperto
Jul 31, 2026, 7:29 PM ETRisolutore
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus assigns an 78% implied probability to no change at the Bank of Japan's October meeting, reflecting expectations of a measured normalization path after the June hike to 1%. Persistent upside inflation risks tied to Middle East energy shocks, service-price gains, and yen weakness have prompted hawkish signals from Governor Ueda and board members, who emphasize data-dependent adjustments and greater attention to inflation overshoots. Markets price a potential 25-basis-point move higher in September as the nearer-term catalyst, with the October decision likely hinging on incoming CPI and growth data. This pricing aligns with the BoJ's stated focus on cumulative policy effects while keeping real rates accommodative relative to neutral estimates around 1.5-2%.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · AggiornatoCorrelati
Will the Bank of Japan announce a 25 bps increase at the September 2026 meeting?
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La Banca d'Israele apporterà nessuna modifica al tasso d'interesse della Banca d'Israele dopo la decisione di ottobre?
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Non ci sarà alcun cambiamento nei tassi di interesse della Fed dopo la riunione di ottobre 2026?
68%
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