Russia's ongoing full-scale invasion of Ukraine continues to dominate its military resources and strategic focus through mid-2026, with forces engaged in attritional advances, sustained missile and drone campaigns, and defensive adaptations against Ukrainian deep strikes on energy and naval assets. This commitment, combined with documented equipment depletion, high casualties, sanctions pressure, and incremental production gains limited to the current theater, underpins the 95.5% trader consensus against a new invasion this year. No verified cross-border operations or mobilization signals targeting additional neighbors have emerged in recent months. Plausible shifts remain possible if Ukrainian battlefield gains force a Russian withdrawal, major diplomatic realignments occur, or hybrid provocations escalate into unintended conventional action, though such developments would require significant changes to current force posture and risk calculations.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · DiperbaruiWill Russia invade another country in 2026?
Will Russia invade another country in 2026?
5% peluang
$401,850 Vol.
$401,850 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
5% peluang
$401,850 Vol.
$401,850 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Russia commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of any UN member state's territory, other than Ukraine's, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by any UN member state, as of market creation, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.Russia's ongoing full-scale invasion of Ukraine continues to dominate its military resources and strategic focus through mid-2026, with forces engaged in attritional advances, sustained missile and drone campaigns, and defensive adaptations against Ukrainian deep strikes on energy and naval assets. This commitment, combined with documented equipment depletion, high casualties, sanctions pressure, and incremental production gains limited to the current theater, underpins the 95.5% trader consensus against a new invasion this year. No verified cross-border operations or mobilization signals targeting additional neighbors have emerged in recent months. Plausible shifts remain possible if Ukrainian battlefield gains force a Russian withdrawal, major diplomatic realignments occur, or hybrid provocations escalate into unintended conventional action, though such developments would require significant changes to current force posture and risk calculations.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Russia commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of any UN member state's territory, other than Ukraine's, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by any UN member state, as of market creation, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by any UN member state, as of market creation, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Pasar Dibuka: Jan 19, 2026, 3:18 PM ET
Volume
$401,850Tanggal Berakhir
Dec 31, 2026Pasar Dibuka
Jan 19, 2026, 3:18 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Russia commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of any UN member state's territory, other than Ukraine's, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by any UN member state, as of market creation, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.Russia's ongoing full-scale invasion of Ukraine continues to dominate its military resources and strategic focus through mid-2026, with forces engaged in attritional advances, sustained missile and drone campaigns, and defensive adaptations against Ukrainian deep strikes on energy and naval assets. This commitment, combined with documented equipment depletion, high casualties, sanctions pressure, and incremental production gains limited to the current theater, underpins the 95.5% trader consensus against a new invasion this year. No verified cross-border operations or mobilization signals targeting additional neighbors have emerged in recent months. Plausible shifts remain possible if Ukrainian battlefield gains force a Russian withdrawal, major diplomatic realignments occur, or hybrid provocations escalate into unintended conventional action, though such developments would require significant changes to current force posture and risk calculations.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Russia commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of any UN member state's territory, other than Ukraine's, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by any UN member state, as of market creation, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by any UN member state, as of market creation, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$401,850Tanggal Berakhir
Dec 31, 2026Pasar Dibuka
Jan 19, 2026, 3:18 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Russia's ongoing full-scale invasion of Ukraine continues to dominate its military resources and strategic focus through mid-2026, with forces engaged in attritional advances, sustained missile and drone campaigns, and defensive adaptations against Ukrainian deep strikes on energy and naval assets. This commitment, combined with documented equipment depletion, high casualties, sanctions pressure, and incremental production gains limited to the current theater, underpins the 95.5% trader consensus against a new invasion this year. No verified cross-border operations or mobilization signals targeting additional neighbors have emerged in recent months. Plausible shifts remain possible if Ukrainian battlefield gains force a Russian withdrawal, major diplomatic realignments occur, or hybrid provocations escalate into unintended conventional action, though such developments would require significant changes to current force posture and risk calculations.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · Diperbarui
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