Persistent diplomatic deadlock over territorial concessions, security guarantees, and ceasefire terms has kept Ukraine-Russia peace talks stalled through mid-2026 despite intermittent U.S. mediation and Ukrainian proposals. No mutually acceptable framework emerged from earlier Geneva or Abu Dhabi rounds, and Kremlin statements in July signaled no immediate resumption. Ukrainian legal and political hurdles, including requirements for parliamentary or public approval on major concessions, further reduce prospects for organizing and passing a referendum before the 2026 deadline. Trader consensus at 95.5% against reflects these entrenched barriers. A rapid breakthrough yielding an accepted deal or a decisive battlefield shift prompting renewed negotiations remain the primary variables that could still alter the outcome before year-end.